ATP Shanghai & WTA Linz picks

I'm not understanding much about Shanghai Master.

Everything, every match, looks normal and weird at the same time.

The impression is that nobody really cares about this tournament, above all the ones that must care (see Almagro and Monaco), and everyone would rather go back home or Europe as well. Same for Osaka WTA.

After this dutiful introduction, I'm going to say that also today I don't like most of the match, and even in the ones tempting me I won't try, at least pre-match.

Only one pick but with very low stake, since there isn't TV coverage: back Dolgopolov @2.3. If the ukranian is in one of his good days his lot of spins, pace variations and all oddities he's capable of might cause many trouble to Simon. The frenchman needs pace and to work on the baseline using opponent's stokes for his own purpose, returning ball that comes to him very different from each other doesn't suit to his style.

WTA Linz 

Yesterday.

Martic played a good match yesterdays, and altough she wasn't able to detach her nerves kept the grip and won mostly with her serve. Not bad also from Cirstea, she only lost control after she got broken in the second set, many winners from her mostly with the forehand.

Another good match was the one between Mattek-Sands and Paszek. The american feels really good on this surfaces showing how you should play in indoor (the sort of transformation Tsonga does when he passes from hard-outdoor to indoor or grass), this is well supported by her skills of double player.

Solid serves, deepness from the baseline bringing her many winners, and great net coverage.

Today.

Should be an easy win for both Azarenka and Lisicki, more interesting the other matches.

Back Hradecka @2.02. Both Arvidsson and Hradecka are good indoor players and already reached a final (losing) early this year. I think the czech is the more complete one though, she's also a great double player, while the swedish has got a solid serve and a powerful forehand but lacks of agility angles and often also nerves.

I also lean, but won't try before seeing a bit the match, for lay Ivanovic @1.17 as she's got to think about the Fed Cup and her forehand could suffer Niculescu's forehand (sliced and tricky, forcing winners against it easily drives to errors); and for back Oprandi @3 as Goerges wasn't the same of Beijing and if Oprandi dropshots as she can the german might easily suffer for she's very bad in movements.  

Week 41 - WTA/ATP picks

Busy week to come with two ATP 500 and the second WTA major in a row.

WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.

Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).   

... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66  : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters. 
   
ATP draws next days.

But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.

Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'. 
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.           

USO - Day 6

First not posted my picks here, shame because it was one rare positive day:
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.

Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.

Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.

Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.

Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.

Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter

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