OlymPICKs III and half

The 'half' stands for the third part had to be posted yesterday: I made my picks and started writing my piece when something stopped me, I don't even remember what, and in the whole day I haven't got back on.

Here's yesterday's:

Richard Gasquet - Marcos Baghdatis: Bagh to win @3.32 1 unit

Marin Cilic - Lleyton Hewitt: Hewitt to win @3.75 1 unit

But let's go on.

Roger Federer - Denis Istomin: pick Istomin @21.00 1 unit

Yeah, it's the King facing Istomin, but even Istomin doesn't worth this. 

I don't like him, I've watched few match of him in Wimby, where he had a great run, passing through an on-fire Seppi, Andreev, Federer's nightmare Falla and losing at the R16 7-5 in the fifth against Youzhny wasting some match point.

He's nothing special in technique, apart from a decent serve, he is slow on movement and doesn't hit that hard from both side, but he play on safety, with the ball well above the net, not giving pace to his opponent, and I can neatly see the Fed make lots of unforced on these weightless balls.

John Isner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Isner @2.25 2 units

Yet two days ago I was against Tipso, I'll try again, this time facing Isner.

Maybe it's true that the real grass-court now are only in Newport, while all the others are going nearer to all other surface, Wimbledon's groundsmen admit that bounce are higher nowadays.

But Isner is always very tricky , and above all when playing for US: some months ago he beated Federer on clay in Switzerland and reapated against France in Davis Cup. 

David Ferrer - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori @5.33 1 unit

Can someone stop Ferru? He's succesfully playing since Auckland in genuary. Well he do this every season, building his ranking upon lower tournament, but seeing him doing great results also on grass well... it's weird that's all.

The young US-nippon talent has played about the half of Ferrer's matches, and his style is not even that energy wasteful, he's not an hard hitter and his movements are very gently, like the bally-dancer Davydenko, who he defeated in the previous round.

This is going to be a long baseline marathon match and even though the spirit Ferrer puts in every match I think he's going to have more difficultes than the odds shows, he should try more variation than he's used to, in order to pass through this gum-wall that will hit back everything.

Steve Darcis - Nicolas Almagro: pick Darcis @3.54 1 unit

I know this is going insane but this will be the last one.

Next round the winner among the two of them will play Murray.

So even losing to Darcis will be ok, no?

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Feliciano Lopez: pick Lopez @3.37 2 units

Jo comes from a 25-23 in the third against Raonic, a 4 hours match.

I can imagine the rallies hadn't go beyond the 3 hits, but it's hard the same. 

Jo won't be 100% fit, and Feliciano can be thougn on grass: leftie, great service, sliced backhand and great experience.

My odds on Lopez won't have gone over @2.50

Sabine Lisicki - Maria Sharapova: pick Lisicki @3.95 2 units

Well close to 4.00... just couple of weeks ago it was a 6-4 6-3 win for Sabine.

Maybe she's not going to replicate but again I'd made much lower odds

Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83

Wimby R3

Here's my pick for today:
M Kirilenko - S Cirstea : pick Cirstea @2.5 1 unit
mmm... well I don't know... I like Kiri (who doesn't?) but i don't trust her at all. To me she always looks to be playing on a narrow edge. Good run for Kiri in Wimby but today her opponent is much better than the previus ones.
Good Wimby also for Cirstea who beated Na Li. Usually defating a top 10 makes your odds drop in the following round, seems it's not this time.
A grass win for Cirstea back in 2008 in Den Bosch.

M Youzhny - J Tipsarevic: pick Youzhny @2.68 1 unit
Misha doesn't deserve such a odd, he's crazy and that puts him in the category of player that should be picked when underdog, and avoided when he isn't.
Both players have goods records on grass, but for differents reasons given by their way to play.
Janko needs rhythm, like a little Djokovic, he need to run on the baseline and getting the point passing you from both side. They high speed of grass suits him.
Misha, on the other hand, tries to do whatever is passing in is mind when he's about to hit the ball, and there are no still point in his game. Grass makes it easier when you've got such a variety of strokes.
Not giving rhythm to Janko puts the Serbian at least at your own level.

A Falla - D Istomin: pick Falla @2.92 2 units
Is the same Falla that defated Isner an Mahut? The one that also took Federer to the fifth set in 2010?
I don't understend... Istomin ok he's a big server but he's very slow, he isn't even on the same level of Isner or Mahut on grass.

Other ideas are:
Rus... a nice grasscourter, but also Peng is. At higher odds i'd pick the dutch.
And the high-odded Watson and Giorgi.

Cirstea and Falla lost... I saw a bit of Falla's forth set and both the players were awful.

Soldier Youzhny won.

-1.32 units

Some ideas for tomorrow, maybe a too much american day and I'll better sleep on it: Roddick, Fish and Querrey.