Yesterday could have been a fabulous, shiny day, but poor selections and lack of focus in the only trade I was able to do covered it in red.
Thinking other seeded players would be ousted I laid Kvitova and Vinci, match I couldn't monitor, and moreover I "know" Vinci doesn't tank. Small liabilities in both, but still...
Both Kvitova and Vinci won.
The upsets were Lisicki v Cadantu (actually I picked this two days ago, but forgot), and Zakopalova v Camerin.
I was live trading that Zakopalova - Camerin. It was the kind of match I like with momentum going from side to side, and lots of service broken (19 breaks in 30 games played). The major difficult was understanding who held the momentum, since body language from both suggested otherwise.
No big disaster from me, just I backed Zakopalova, above the even (around 2.20), when she was a break down in the third set, Camerin held till the end.
All matches in both Casablanca and Katowice are televised today.
I'll start with Bertens Vinci, still think Vinci won't tank but Bertens could be an hard task.
Then I'm undecided, Cadantu - Begu or Carreno-Busta - Anderson.
I expect a classic WTA drama in the Romanian derby, but I also wonder what Anderson is doing in the dirt, and Carreno-Busta could be an hard matchup in any case.
I don't know if I'll trade it (discipline suggests me to stay awayfrom it, for different reasons) but surely I'm going to watch Volandri - Klizan and cheering Volandri.
Showing posts with label Lisicki. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lisicki. Show all posts
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Charleston WTA
My bad that beside that Tati +5.5 games posted yesterday I've also laid Lisicki and I wasn't able to decrease the liabilities.
As I expected Hantuchova-Erakovic was a better match for trading but unfortunately I experienced problems with the australian wallet and I couldn't enter that market. Erakovic won.
Other loss were the Putintseva +1.5 sets, at which I added an in-play small lay to Goerges. Goerges was never in danger red stayed there. The match wasn't televised.
Then there was Robson beating Cabeza-Candela.
Robson has been on a drift for the whole day but won in the end. That was I stupid pick though, since also the spaniard played a final on sunday at Osprey (a 50K $ tourney).
To save my day came Jankovic and Oudin. I can't say how much I was good on this one and how much luck was on my side.
Jankovic won the first set, not a surprise but also in that set there was the impression that Oudin was doing good things, she looked a bit to her limit, while Jankovic looked to have margin.
Anyway in the second set Oudin went on playing well while Jankovic instead of level up her game started being more faulty. Oudin served for the set at 5-4, was broken, but eventually won the set, she had like 7-8 set points.
Oudin winning that set was the key for my trading to go green, don't know what would have happened if Jankovic managed to force the american to the tie-break.
Having greened up I closed everything and I don't know what happened in the deciding set.
Looking at the result I'd say Ouding paid her effort, she was bound to keep it up and couldn't afford any drop of intesity to get the win; anyway I was happy with my green, that covered all my losses of the day and allowed me even a small gain, so I preferred not to risk any further (I'd have switched all the green on Jankovic).
Later I watched Giorgi-Williams. The score says it right Williams had to fight, and Giorgi was putting big pressure during the rallies, but also Serena looked not very interested in the match.
A well focused Serena would have smashed up an opponent who made 12 double faults.
Serena stays the one to beat but I wouldn't be shocked by a tank: she's defending champion but last year she went out of Miami at the quarterfinals. I've little laid Serena at 1.67 in the outright market.
I don't like anything today and I won't be live trading so my day is done.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Charleston WTA
Single draw
I've decided to focus on Charleston: Monterrey's time zone makes it a couple of hours later than I could afford to operate the way I like as I'll try also some in-play action.
Beside this also the fact that the transition of surface could cause some "wrong" odds, influenced by recent results on hardcourts (both Indian Wells and Miami were slow as claycourts, though); and the fascinating view of the Georgian house on the background of the Althea Gibson court.
Yesterday I traded Govortsova - Hampton.
Pre-match I thought Hampton wasn't very good on clay and was surprised to see her around 1.50, I've last seen her on clay in the Fed Cup tie against Italy.
Govortsova made a great start and went 5-0 up in the first set before Hampton started firing with full power putting pressure on Govortsova, after a 4 games come back Govortsova served out the set 6-4.
The beginning of the second set was like last part of the previous one with Hampton having the momentum and going 3-1 up. At that point of the match the american had won 7 of last 9 games.
Then she runned out of fuel and lost the pace allowing Govortsova to come back.
With many breaks of serve (both were playing very bad) Hampton also had the chance to serve for the set on 5-4, but failed. She eventually won the tie-break.
Into the deciding set Govortsova found back the intensity of the first set, made of anticipations and angles (her coach said she should be more creative) not that her style suit much to claycourts but still was better than Hampton, and eventually and fairly won.
The belarussian had a medical time out at half of the third set and got her left knee taped, she seemed bothered by it for the whole match(the time-out was before she went to serve though, usually purely tactical time-outs are taken before the opponent goes to serve).
Much more could be done from me on this match, I still have to work on selfconfidence and get rid of pre-built convictions: I've sensed Govortsova had the momentum early in the third set but I stayed on my conviction that Hampton would eventually prevail if she managed to level it up and hit hard as she had done between first and second set so I left the greater green on Hampton.
Much more I pulled out of Johansson - Czink, even though I traded less since it was a non-televised match.
I regret to have left unattempted Soler-Espinosa - Schiavone.
I don't know Soler-Espinosa, but Schiavone should be always laid recently, above all when she's favorite.
Today I'll live trade Tatishvili - Lisicki or Hantuchova - Erakovic both starting at 16 CET.
Both Hantu and Erakovic aren't claycourter and I expect the momentum to switch many times.
In the other one Lisicki who has had many ups and downs so far in this season is strong favorite but Tati is a better claycourter. I'm very tempted to lay Lisicki's price, currently at 1.2.
Other bets.
A. Tatishvili - S. Lisicki pick Tatishvili +5.5 games 2 units @2.05 Lost -2
As already said I won't give a margin that wide to Lisicki, Tatishvili is a player not so powerful so Lisicki can't use her opponent's pace and has to dictate it herself.
Y. Putintseva ( 1.5 Sets) - J. Goerges (-1.5 Sets) pick Putintseva +1.5 sets 2 units @2.08 Lost -2
Putintseva is a counterpunher that might like Goerges' offensive style. Putintseva has had some good results on clay in her junior career.
L. Robson - E. Cabeza Candela pick Cabeza-Candela 2 units @2.30 Lost -2
Robson hasn't had much time to practice on this courts, she played the double final in Miami on sunday.
Also the spaniard is a better claycourter and Robson's single results have been quite bad recently.
-6
I've decided to focus on Charleston: Monterrey's time zone makes it a couple of hours later than I could afford to operate the way I like as I'll try also some in-play action.
Beside this also the fact that the transition of surface could cause some "wrong" odds, influenced by recent results on hardcourts (both Indian Wells and Miami were slow as claycourts, though); and the fascinating view of the Georgian house on the background of the Althea Gibson court.Yesterday I traded Govortsova - Hampton.
Pre-match I thought Hampton wasn't very good on clay and was surprised to see her around 1.50, I've last seen her on clay in the Fed Cup tie against Italy.
Govortsova made a great start and went 5-0 up in the first set before Hampton started firing with full power putting pressure on Govortsova, after a 4 games come back Govortsova served out the set 6-4.
The beginning of the second set was like last part of the previous one with Hampton having the momentum and going 3-1 up. At that point of the match the american had won 7 of last 9 games.
Then she runned out of fuel and lost the pace allowing Govortsova to come back.
With many breaks of serve (both were playing very bad) Hampton also had the chance to serve for the set on 5-4, but failed. She eventually won the tie-break.
Into the deciding set Govortsova found back the intensity of the first set, made of anticipations and angles (her coach said she should be more creative) not that her style suit much to claycourts but still was better than Hampton, and eventually and fairly won.
The belarussian had a medical time out at half of the third set and got her left knee taped, she seemed bothered by it for the whole match(the time-out was before she went to serve though, usually purely tactical time-outs are taken before the opponent goes to serve).
Much more could be done from me on this match, I still have to work on selfconfidence and get rid of pre-built convictions: I've sensed Govortsova had the momentum early in the third set but I stayed on my conviction that Hampton would eventually prevail if she managed to level it up and hit hard as she had done between first and second set so I left the greater green on Hampton.
Much more I pulled out of Johansson - Czink, even though I traded less since it was a non-televised match.
I regret to have left unattempted Soler-Espinosa - Schiavone.
I don't know Soler-Espinosa, but Schiavone should be always laid recently, above all when she's favorite.
Today I'll live trade Tatishvili - Lisicki or Hantuchova - Erakovic both starting at 16 CET.
Both Hantu and Erakovic aren't claycourter and I expect the momentum to switch many times.
In the other one Lisicki who has had many ups and downs so far in this season is strong favorite but Tati is a better claycourter. I'm very tempted to lay Lisicki's price, currently at 1.2.
Other bets.
A. Tatishvili - S. Lisicki pick Tatishvili +5.5 games 2 units @2.05 Lost -2
As already said I won't give a margin that wide to Lisicki, Tatishvili is a player not so powerful so Lisicki can't use her opponent's pace and has to dictate it herself.
Y. Putintseva ( 1.5 Sets) - J. Goerges (-1.5 Sets) pick Putintseva +1.5 sets 2 units @2.08 Lost -2
Putintseva is a counterpunher that might like Goerges' offensive style. Putintseva has had some good results on clay in her junior career.
L. Robson - E. Cabeza Candela pick Cabeza-Candela 2 units @2.30 Lost -2
Robson hasn't had much time to practice on this courts, she played the double final in Miami on sunday.
Also the spaniard is a better claycourter and Robson's single results have been quite bad recently.
-6
Monday, August 27, 2012
USO R1 - Day 1
M Klizan - A Falla: pick Falla @2.10 1 unit
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan
D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)
R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.
I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)
0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan
D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)
R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.
I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)
0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
OlymPICKs III and half
The 'half' stands for the third part had to be posted yesterday: I made my picks and started writing my piece when something stopped me, I don't even remember what, and in the whole day I haven't got back on.
Here's yesterday's:
Richard Gasquet - Marcos Baghdatis: Bagh to win @3.32 1 unit
Marin Cilic - Lleyton Hewitt: Hewitt to win @3.75 1 unit
But let's go on.
Roger Federer - Denis Istomin: pick Istomin @21.00 1 unit
Yeah, it's the King facing Istomin, but even Istomin doesn't worth this.
I don't like him, I've watched few match of him in Wimby, where he had a great run, passing through an on-fire Seppi, Andreev, Federer's nightmare Falla and losing at the R16 7-5 in the fifth against Youzhny wasting some match point.
He's nothing special in technique, apart from a decent serve, he is slow on movement and doesn't hit that hard from both side, but he play on safety, with the ball well above the net, not giving pace to his opponent, and I can neatly see the Fed make lots of unforced on these weightless balls.
John Isner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Isner @2.25 2 units
Yet two days ago I was against Tipso, I'll try again, this time facing Isner.
Maybe it's true that the real grass-court now are only in Newport, while all the others are going nearer to all other surface, Wimbledon's groundsmen admit that bounce are higher nowadays.
But Isner is always very tricky , and above all when playing for US: some months ago he beated Federer on clay in Switzerland and reapated against France in Davis Cup.
David Ferrer - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori @5.33 1 unit
Can someone stop Ferru? He's succesfully playing since Auckland in genuary. Well he do this every season, building his ranking upon lower tournament, but seeing him doing great results also on grass well... it's weird that's all.
The young US-nippon talent has played about the half of Ferrer's matches, and his style is not even that energy wasteful, he's not an hard hitter and his movements are very gently, like the bally-dancer Davydenko, who he defeated in the previous round.
This is going to be a long baseline marathon match and even though the spirit Ferrer puts in every match I think he's going to have more difficultes than the odds shows, he should try more variation than he's used to, in order to pass through this gum-wall that will hit back everything.
Steve Darcis - Nicolas Almagro: pick Darcis @3.54 1 unit
I know this is going insane but this will be the last one.
Next round the winner among the two of them will play Murray.
So even losing to Darcis will be ok, no?
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Feliciano Lopez: pick Lopez @3.37 2 units
Jo comes from a 25-23 in the third against Raonic, a 4 hours match.
I can imagine the rallies hadn't go beyond the 3 hits, but it's hard the same.
Jo won't be 100% fit, and Feliciano can be thougn on grass: leftie, great service, sliced backhand and great experience.
My odds on Lopez won't have gone over @2.50
Sabine Lisicki - Maria Sharapova: pick Lisicki @3.95 2 units
Well close to 4.00... just couple of weeks ago it was a 6-4 6-3 win for Sabine.
Maybe she's not going to replicate but again I'd made much lower odds
Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83
Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83
Monday, July 2, 2012
Wimby QF
I haven't found yet the pictures I was looking for. It's about yesterday's Spain-Italy, a very funny moment: there's Casillas waving to Balotelli where he should aim, after the striker missed the gol with a shot hundreds metres high and wide (obviously this is followed by well spelled (!) 'vaffanculo').
Anyway... I also haven't done my homework: I promised my self I'd have done a review of the first week of Wimby, watching some highlights and studing some stats, but I didn't. So no review and no preview, just some picks.
I had a good sunday laying the draw on betfair, lot of fun from it, I'll write down some lines about it one day (there's enough about it on the web yet).
R Gasquet - F Mayer: pick Mayer @4.57 1 unit
Such a odd is very offensive toward Flo. What has he done to deserve it? He's survived to Tursunov, not a newbe on grass; Petzschner, without going to far with memory he has been finalist in Den Bosh just a week ago; Janowicz the one who defeated the one who defated Berdych. It's a medium high level run from Mayer.
Both Flo and Richie can play tennis, have varius stroke. And the one who shows the most variety is Mayer: it's in his play, he can hit a deep forehand then go short with a drop or slower with a slice, he plays backspin backhand though the two-handed. He's supported by a great serve.
J Tsonga - M Fish: pick Fish @5.05 1 unit
I think Fish is a bit underrated.
He won a hard match against an home player, Ward, at the fifth, with all the crowd... then won the slam boy Goffin as underdog.
So i think Fish has had his chance to go back home, he hasn't, so he should fight and he knows Jo has some bad moments.
M Sharapova - S Lisicki: pick Lisicki +5,5 @1.91 2 units
Last year in semifinal was 6-4 6-3 for Maria. So the line was winning.
Lisicki came off some hard matches maybe playing not on her standards for grass.
Hope Sabine will serve like she can and Maria doesn't find confidece in the return: the russian doesn't know interlocutory hit and forcing on Sabine first serve is suicidal.
A Radwanska - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi +6 @1.93 2 units
Also Giorgi as winner @6 is not that bad.
Camila is a hard-hitter, has a good serve, I don't think it's going to be a 6-2 6-2 or something near it.
Other matches:
Apart from Federer, Djokovic and Murray every match deserve a try beacuse they are very close:
Baker's odd is very tempting, as the Shvedova's one; Azarenka and even Kvitova could suffer of the empiness they occasinally shows. Ferrer is on fire. Youzhny and Istomin can do anything, a sane Yuozhny should easily win, but... Vinci Paszek could be a funny match to watch and to pick something live
Picks on Mayer and Lisicki are won +4.39
Anyway... I also haven't done my homework: I promised my self I'd have done a review of the first week of Wimby, watching some highlights and studing some stats, but I didn't. So no review and no preview, just some picks.
I had a good sunday laying the draw on betfair, lot of fun from it, I'll write down some lines about it one day (there's enough about it on the web yet).
R Gasquet - F Mayer: pick Mayer @4.57 1 unit
Such a odd is very offensive toward Flo. What has he done to deserve it? He's survived to Tursunov, not a newbe on grass; Petzschner, without going to far with memory he has been finalist in Den Bosh just a week ago; Janowicz the one who defeated the one who defated Berdych. It's a medium high level run from Mayer.
Both Flo and Richie can play tennis, have varius stroke. And the one who shows the most variety is Mayer: it's in his play, he can hit a deep forehand then go short with a drop or slower with a slice, he plays backspin backhand though the two-handed. He's supported by a great serve.
J Tsonga - M Fish: pick Fish @5.05 1 unit
I think Fish is a bit underrated.
He won a hard match against an home player, Ward, at the fifth, with all the crowd... then won the slam boy Goffin as underdog.
So i think Fish has had his chance to go back home, he hasn't, so he should fight and he knows Jo has some bad moments.
M Sharapova - S Lisicki: pick Lisicki +5,5 @1.91 2 units
Last year in semifinal was 6-4 6-3 for Maria. So the line was winning.
Lisicki came off some hard matches maybe playing not on her standards for grass.
Hope Sabine will serve like she can and Maria doesn't find confidece in the return: the russian doesn't know interlocutory hit and forcing on Sabine first serve is suicidal.
A Radwanska - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi +6 @1.93 2 units
Also Giorgi as winner @6 is not that bad.
Camila is a hard-hitter, has a good serve, I don't think it's going to be a 6-2 6-2 or something near it.
Other matches:
Apart from Federer, Djokovic and Murray every match deserve a try beacuse they are very close:
Baker's odd is very tempting, as the Shvedova's one; Azarenka and even Kvitova could suffer of the empiness they occasinally shows. Ferrer is on fire. Youzhny and Istomin can do anything, a sane Yuozhny should easily win, but... Vinci Paszek could be a funny match to watch and to pick something live
Picks on Mayer and Lisicki are won +4.39
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