Sun 9/02 - Olympic men's Downhill

Alpine skiing officially debuts at the Olympics.

Downhill slope has been describe as very though mostly because of the variations, words of US downhiller Steven Nyman (@BelieveinSteven):

Some compare the course to Bormio, some to Beaver Creek, surely is tough being like a very fast Super-G. Many athletes tried it in sections along the three training runs and are only putting the pieces together for the race.

Bode Miller was the most solid, but I wonder if going 90% (though not 100%) for three training runs couldn't have tired him. Big pressure from media and fans on him as well.

Also solid looked Austrian Matthias Mayer and Norway's flag bearer Aksel Svindal.  

Outsiders names are Kueng (this season revelation), Italians Fill and Innerhofer and Frenchman Theaux. I'd call out of the battle for top positions Guay and Paris, both dealing with mid-season injuries and lacking of form.

From training results Carlo Janka looks like a possible dark horse.

Couldn't find any playable price son no bet, I'd only advice to oppose Guay and Paris.

I'll leave few graphs I made, I find it helpful to better understand one's shape through the season.

Place and final position in this season downhills

Miller's form was a crescendo, though his Super-G's results gives the idea much better

Svindal is just impressive

Guay DNFed in Wengen and missed Kitzbuehel

Fill's daughter was born few days before Kitz, he wasn't on with the head.

DNF in Beaver Creek

Found this interesting Swiss Janka and Defago peaked in Kitzbuehel, race closer to the Games (DH left, SG right)

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

-------------------------------------------------

Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Schladming 2013 - Men's Downhill

The Queen of the races, takes place.
As usual, and maybe even more this time, in Austria there's a lot of talking and media's attention on this event; mostly brought by the selections of who'll race this one.

Few things can be undertood from the two time trials.
Yesterday's practice was even shortened because the finish line is the same for every race and while men where practicing the downhill slope, there was ladies' slalom run of the super-combined.
So last section of the course was cut away. The practice ended about at the level of the "italienerloch".
From the first practice reports Innerhofer and Reichelt made the best time in that section, and this can be a great advantage, above all for austrians that surely know better this slope.

Starting list:

Bib	FIS Code	Name	Year	Nation	Skis
1	194190	ROGER Brice	1990	FRA	Rossignol
2	380260	KOSTELIC Ivica	1979	CRO	Fischer
3	53902	MAYER Matthias	1990	AUT	Head
4	400281	VAN HEEK Marvin	1991	NED	Salomon
5	201606	KEPPLER Stephan	1983	GER	Head
6	560447	SPORN Andrej	1981	SLO	Elan
7	180570	ROMAR Andreas	1989	FIN	Atomic
8	102271	HUDEC Jan	1981	CAN	Rossignol
9	292514	HEEL Werner	1982	ITA	Atomic
10	53817	FRANZ Max	1989	AUT	Atomic
11	533131	SULLIVAN Marco	1980	USA	Atomic
12	510727	DEFAGO Didier	1977	SUI	Rossignol
13	191964	POISSON David	1982	FRA	Salomon
14	292455	FILL Peter	1982	ITA	Atomic
15	103271	THOMSEN Benjamin	1987	CAN	Head
16	102263	GUAY Erik	1981	CAN	Atomic
17	421328	SVINDAL Aksel Lund	1982	NOR	Head
18	291459	PARIS Dominik	1989	ITA	Nordica
19	50742	REICHELT Hannes	1980	AUT	Salomon
20	192746	THEAUX Adrien	1984	FRA	Salomon
21	293006	INNERHOFER Christof	1984	ITA	Rossignol
22	50753	KROELL Klaus	1980	AUT	Salomon
23	102899	OSBORNE-PARADIS Manuel	1984	CAN	Rossignol
24	511313	JANKA Carlo	1986	SUI	Atomic
25	511139	KUENG Patrick	1984	SUI	Salomon
26	530874	GANONG Travis	1988	USA	Atomic
27	510890	ZURBRIGGEN Silvan	1981	SUI	Rossignol
28	533866	NYMAN Steven	1982	USA	Fischer
29	192932	FAYED Guillermo	1985	FRA	Head
30	561216	KLINE Bostjan	1991	SLO	Stoeckli
31	501439	HEDIN Douglas	1990	SWE	Head
32	481705	GLEBOV Alexander	1983	RUS	Head
33	150398	BANK Ondrej	1980	CZE	Elan
34	491129	TERRA Ferran	1987	SPA	Rossignol
35	491151	DE LA CUESTA Paul	1988	SPA	Salomon
36	561217	KOSI Klemen	1991	SLO	Atomic
37	530939	WEIBRECHT Andrew	1986	USA	Rossignol
38	20267	ESTEVE Kevin	1989	AND
39	430429	BYDLINSKI Maciej	1988	POL	Atomic
40	481054	MURAVYEV Ivan	1989	RUS
41	660021	DANILOCHKIN Yuri	1991	BLR
42	670037	ZAKURDAEV Igor	1987	KAZ
43	20324	OLIVERAS Marc	1991	AND
44	380341	ULLRICH Max	1994	CRO
45	670052	KHUBER Martin	1992	KAZ
46	30149	SIMARI BIRKNER Cristian Javier	1980	ARG	Atomic
47	170131	FAARUP Christoffer	1992	DAN
48	92534	CHONGAROV Nikola	1989	BUL	Volkl
49	150495	VRABLIK Martin	1982	CZE	Elan
50	92570	GEORGIEV Svetoslav	1991	BUL
51	550022	RODE Roberts	1987	LAT
52	710320	LAIKERT Igor	1991	BIH
53	430472	KLUSAK Michal	1990	POL	Head
54	670058	KOSHKIN Dmitriy	1986	KAZ
55	30283	FREEMAN CRESPO Ignacio	1992	ARG
56	410364	FEASEY Willis	1992	NZL
57	670029	PIMENOV Taras	1984	KAZ
58	690086	FESHCHUK Rostyslav	1990	UKR

Again as it's happening many times there are racer with odds that won't take part to the competition and no-odds racer that will be in.

Svindal is the favourite again, followed by Paris, Reichel, Innerhofer, Kroell and Guay.
Hard to see a different name on the highest step of the podium this time.
Snow condition and also the day time (no darkening and bad vision) hardly will pull a Ligety, an outsider winner.
I also noticed that in both men and women speed events so far Head skis has the tendency to be faster.
Of the top competitors only Svindal has Head skis.

h2h Fill - Mayer - pick Fill 2 units @2.83 Won +3.66
Mayer was one of those austrina in the eye of the media' storm, being named in in place of Baumann or Puchner.
Fill isn't in great conditions but the starting bib, #3 Mayer, #14 Fill, is a great advantage for the italian.

A pick won, actually could be an easier win but Fill made a mistake in one of the last turns and lost speed for the slippery part before the finish line.

The best one as won the race. Svindal was just perfect from the starting gate to the red finish line. A great champion who deserved this medal after all.
+.46 from the leader for Dominik Paris, that's a confirmation of the quality talented... at 24 years old he could be considered young.
Surprise bronze medal to Poisson from france, +.97 from the leader. Including Rolland's gold medal in women's downhill and France leading the medal standing could be said that find a frenchmen on the podium isn't a surprise anymore, they've probably planned their season for this event.

Again no medals for Austria Ski Team: Kroell 4th, Reichelt went out.
Video of the top three runs, Svindal one's deserve to be watched, sorry for the italian commentators, but I've found this youtube user that post these videos.

25/01 Men' Super-G - Kitzbuehel

Opening day at the Grand Slam of the Alpine skiing.
A technical Super-G, but also with some flat section, anyway some key turns will do the difference.
Sadly weather conditions don't look the best, powder and some low clouds... let's hope in a regular race.

h2h Baumann - Fill - pick Baumann 3 units @1.68 Lost -3
Fill's got bib #2 so will start "blind" without seeing any other racer and so the course, and also with powder still on it.
Baumann is #28, and he's in raising shape.

h2h Innerhofer - Streitberger -pick Innerhofer 2 units @1.95 Won +1.9
h2h Clarey - Streiberger - pick Clarey 2 units @2.42 Won +2.84
Two picks against Streitberger and his low starting bib, #5 and the powder still on course whene he'll take the start.
Innerhofer is #8 and Clarey #26.
Both also seems in better shape than Streiberger, who might be overrated for two podiums here in the past but last race was not last year but two yeas ago and his fit is much worse than then.

+1.74