Wed 12/02 - Ladies Olympic Downhill

Again quick, short before the race starts.

I think there are more chances of a top 3 finish for those ladies: Cook and Goerlg in raising shape, Kaufmann-Abderalden and Kling revelations of this season.

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

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Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Alpine skiing - quick recap after season opening and 1/2 American swing - part 1 ladies

Back blogging; I have few thoughts to write down about what's happening on the World Cup. A decent amount of races already completed some trending becoming evident.

Maze doesn't amaze anymore

Unrecognisable in giant-slalom and in super-g where she showed some lethargic movements, a little sparkle came with a 3rd place in Levi's slalom.

She's collected just 130 points and is 7th placed in the Cup standing.

My humble opinion is: she's aiming the Olympics, her form will come later this season.

This and Vonn still out make the fight for the Crystal Globe interesting. Although some young guns are make it interesting anyway.

Young guns: Gut, Shiffrin, Weirather

The hot names of the moment.

Gut is finally proving her talent. Three wins on the first three races and a solid lead in the Overall Standing, then out during the first run of the GS... she's still kind of unbeaten so far.
Shiffrin won the opening slalom starting the new season from where she left, but as proof of her growing up there's her first GS podium. In very short she'll rule both technical disciplines -Hirsher teaches that they're enough to win the Globe, do your math.
Weirather more than a Tina 2 looks like Gut's double, they trains together indeed. Technically speaking Tina is less aggressive on turns than Gut but has better flat sections. 3rd place in Beaver's GS was her first podium in that discipline, made even greater by the fact she was bib #29, so she's lot to work on her Starting List.

Team talk: US, Norway.

The aspect that probably most intrigues me of this sport it's the [with Gandalf voice - it sounds a bit philosophical and I had a teacher who... long story, nevermind] duality Team-Athlete: it's true that you're on your own out on the slope, but that is just a drop in the sea of training either on slopes and in gyms (plus other pre-season exercises like running and cycling), all shared with teammates. So when you leave the starting gate you put on course your individual value, your liking or disliking the slope, the course setting, other mental factors and so on, but beside this there's a big slice of the pie made by training, which is the same for you and your teammates. It's not uncommon seeing few flags of the same nation gathering at some point of the final standing of a race.
For example tennis is individual, and training is individual too. Pro-tennis players have their own staff and there aren't groups of players with similar trends. Yet Errani and Vinci since they started working together showed "similar" progress and reached their career best rank almost at the same time.
All this to say that I love talk teams.

US have to thank Shiffrin, who all alone saved the USskiteam on home soil from what looked like a Little Bighorn. Although she has to be considered more by herself than as part of a team -sorry, Resi!-, where US really team-up is in fast disciplines: Vonn and Mancuso are top racers while Smith, Ross and Cook are solid teammate worth of top10 placements. The best this bunch has done is Cook's 19th place in DH.

The most probable explanation to this is their preparation that has to be centered on the Olympics, this would be typical of the US above all of Mancuso: she better performs on biggest stages like Olympics or World Champs than on tours stages - she's won more Olympics medal than Vonn, to say.

Opposite form is showed by the Norway team, or Vikings as they're nicknamed. Actually they're not at the very top but this is a young team and after few years passed fighting for a top30 placement now they're finding the top10 with some continuity.
Ragnhild Mowinckel was the one showing the greater improvement, previous to her 8th place in Beaver's GS she scored great results in some "warm-up" events held in Copper Mountain. Almost all those events were won by Lotte Sejersted, on the World Cup satges she probably was the most disappointing though, with only a 10th place in Super-G.
The elder Loeseth, Nina, was 12th in Beaver's GS backing her 7th place achieved in Levi. She's recorded a 1st and a 3rd place in two Nor-Am GS kept this week.
The younger Loeseth, Mona, remained in the old continent competiting in European Cup record a win and a 4th place in GS and a win and a 2nd place in SL.

Other team worth mentioning are Swiss (+ Weirather), with solid team either in fast and tech disciplines, and Canada.

Thumb up for the new Raptor course 

Ladies and gentlemen Super-G - Garmisch and Kvitfjell

Ladies with another Super-G in Garmisch, the true one on the proper slope.

h2h Lindell-Vikarby - Cook - pick Lindell-Vikarby 4 units @1.71 Won +1.84
Bordeline odd but it reflects the reality in the right way: Lindell-Vikarby usually is into a top 20 placement in Super-G while Cook struggles a lot and hardly finds a top 30 placement.

And two picks based on the run for the year's finals in Lenzerheide:
h2h Ruiz-Castillo - Hosp - pick Hosp 2 units @1.90 Won +1.8
Hosp is first excluded but only two points away from qualification.
She's been 5th on friday, while has rested yesterday.
Ruiz-Castillo is 9th postion so she's sure to be qualified.

h2h Moser - Sterz - pick Moser 2 units @1.76 Lost -2
Moser is last placed in the run for the finals, though a very little gap. Sterz is 18th and can be quite sure to be in.
Few number difference in the starting list so little weather variables.
Moser is doing quite well here in Garmisch

Super-g also for the men in Norway, yesterday wind played a big role so I don't feel like gamble that much also today.

Mayer top 3 1 unit @4.60 Lost -1
Mayer is doing a great season and he's improved a lot. In Super-G his worst placement is a 7th place.
With some top racers like Marsaglia and Reichelt that seems to have a little fuel left Mayer might find a spot in the podium

+1.64

12/01 Ladies's Downhill - St.Anton

Last time there's been a race here was six years ago, very few racer are still in the "circus".
From interviews it seems that this slope is really hard, very technical.

Today's time trial was cancelled so there's been only one, where Lara Gut won, but missining some gates.
Time trial aren't really a good proof as racer don't go down 100%, someone skips gates, somene tries only some section.
Anyway Lara Gut seems very pumped, and she's better on technical slopes than on flat ones.
So I'll try her to podium.
Gut to podium 2 units @2.50

h2h Kaufmann-Abderhalden - Rolland - pick Kaufmann-Abderhalden 2 units @2.93
Although the swiss with the long name isn't really impressing, this is a huge odd.
Rolland is doing quite bad and she's one of those atlethes who prefer flat slope, while she's very bad on track with more turns.

h2h Merighetti - Gisin - pick Gisin 2 units @2.55
Merighetti is similar to Rolland, she find difficulties with turns, above all rightward for an injury.
Gisin is a preatty technical racer.

h2h Cook - Weirather - pick Cook 1 unit @2.56
Little stake against Weirather, who had an injury recently and with less training in the legs might suffer this hard slope.
Cook has had a great season so far with two 2nd places in Lake Louise, but the two slopes are very different

Ladies Super-G - St.Moritz

H2H Fanchini - Cook - pick Fanchini 3 units @1.54 Lost -3
Fanchini made a good run yesterday, finishing in the top 15 in the Super-G run of the Super-Combined event.
Cook made not so good in the same event.
Here I also pick given the starting position of the two: Fanchini will be #27 while Cook #49, twenty number is a great difference and the condition of the slope will change in worse: there will create a channel, with a littel step that will made harder the way down and a loss of time if you can't follow that channel.

H2H Rolland - Smith - pick: Smith 2 units @2.11 Win +2.22
Pick already made in last Super-G, a week ago in Lake Louise, Canada.
Style motivation: Smith is a better in covering turns, while Rolland needs straight section where she can gain speed.

-0.78
Fanchini out, too faulty could be said; she can't find continuity in her results.

Right impression about Rolland: turns aren't good for her and she finish well behind.