Sat 15/02 - Ladies Olympic Super-G

I tried to figure out something about ladies Super-G but I came out with nothing.

As seen so far all the events of alpine skiing have been quite crazy, with all the favourites (but Hoefl-Riesch in ladies combined) flopping big and outsiders popping up everywhere.

That's all about this kind of events, where all that matter is being in one of the top three placements, so everyone push to 100% and the space between a big performance and a failure is very narrow, and failure in alpine skiing is also a line just 1 meter wider that results in few cents of second loss. 

Only safe statement about what has happened so far is: "team Switzerland is in excellent form".

And Swiss have few good arrows to shoot in ladies SG: Gut, Gisin and Suter.

Hoefl-Riesch, Maze, Fenninger, Mancuso, Hosp among the others, while Goergl seems to be not liking this snow- she's always dangerous though-, Weirather is in the starting list but her forms should be vary bad after an injury in training that had her missing the downhill, same for Gagnon and Rebensburg -always struggling with health issues.

Opposing these last names is all I advice. With spring-time temperature an early starter winner is much possible, I'm not doing any specific name though as it didn't pay so far (I haven't posted the outcome of ladies DH, a bit late eh?):

Mon 10/02 - Ladies Super-Combined

No time for divagations, just the picks

Tue 14/01 - Ladies Slalom Flachau

Results of Altenmarkt DH, then (luckily?) I didn't have any other bets on Sunday's races.

Today Night Race in Flachau, to determine who's Yuasa among the ladies.
Previous slaloms were won by Shiffrin and Marlies Schild, two win both.
Few names showed enough consistency: Gagnon is solidly in the top 5 bot hasn't got a podium yet, today she's bib #1 and her coach is setting run 1, she comes from her first WC victory, everything seems to point in her direction; Nina Loeseth, although starting with high bibs scored three top10 finish; one last hot name is Bernadette Schild.
Maria Riesch has a good tradition in Flachau, but more than going for the win she'd rather go for points and increase her WC lead.

Picks for tonight.

Huge odds for Zettel and Nina Loeseth: although Zettel is underperforming in slalom she's got a good tradition here, Hansdotter is underperforming as well, so I think it's a very tasty price; as said before Loeseth is constatly in the top10, while Pietilae-Holmner before Bormio's 2nd place had a 20th place and didn't finish the other two slaloms.

Smaller stakes on Eklund and Feierabend. Hosp doesn't look good in slalom, she lacks of reactivity, of that fluency of movements you need in slalom (just look how she wasted over 1 second in the slalom run of the combined). Daum results are close to Feierabend ones, but Daum is achieving those results with better bib numbers than Feierabend, whom is improving: she was #45 in Levi at the start of the season.

St. Moritz and Val d'Isere - the results

This weeked has been a disaster, and feelings are even more mixed because picks weren't actually so wrong and everything could have turned the other way in a blink.

Conceptually-lost bets were the two on Fenninger, and Pranger to podium.
All the others were good.
Deville was (and I think will be in the future) shite finishing 26th, I don't know what happened to Pranger as I haven't seen run1 (ladies' one too) but he should be better than that.
Anyway Val d'Isere is madness: lots of racers ousted, Hirscher made a mistake too and couldn't qualify...
Can't find a common thread for this slalom, sure thing is that you can't "attack" on this hill, but just be calm and clean, experience I think helped as the runner-up Hargin ,28 yo, is the youngest in the top10, and he stepped on podium with Matt and Thaler, 34 and 35 respectively.

Biggest disappointment was Gagnon. 5th after the first leg, in the second was doing equally good, but when 5-6 gates away from the finish line, she fell down wasting a good chance to step on podium. Anyway she's getting closer to it, at this kind of odds might worth keep backing her.
Also Brignone crashed, in the first leg though. Anyway she was about half a second in front of Riesch. Riesch was eventually 11th, and it sorts of confirms that GS is her worst discipline, with possibilities of opposing her as bookies could overrate her at it.
Tessa Worley wins big scoring the best times in both runs.
Lindell-Vikarby is on her level and increases her lead in GS-standing.
Maze found back a good way to ski, her movements didn't look slow as in previous races.

Sun 15/12 - St.Moritz GS Ladies, Val d'Isere SL Men

 Picks decided in today's races:

I was totally wrong abut Goergl, underrating her. She's doing great in Super-G while Suter is performing below her standards at the moment.
Weirather confirms her good shape.
Riesch goes behind Gut by just .01s... aaargh, it was a juicy price.

Right impressions about both courses: St.Moritz is average for SG, speed little prevail on tech. Val d'Isere is strange, unconventional GS, lots of DNFs etc... that Ligety has won here only once says it all.

On to next races:

Lindell-Vikarby - Fenninger was taken earlier this week, thinking the price was wrong, odds have changed now proving my thought right. Also fancying Fenninger to win, with Wairather's win in super-g, now Anna is the one without wins of the three that are dominating this season. Technically she's improved a lot and she's got the skills to do better than others in the flat sections of this slope.

I haven't liked Worley this season till today, 9th in SG. She seems to have a great feeling with St. Moritz, she's got a 1st and a 3rd place in GS here, she's got a far better starting bib than Pietilae-Holmner, 6 to 18 so I see value in that price.
Brignone is improving, she's recovering the time off for injury and little by little could go back to the top position of GS, Hoefl-Riesch has a weak point in GS perhaps her worst discipline.
Long shot picking Gagnon for the podium, the canadian girl is in great shape and scoring good placements everywhere. Got a 1st place in a Nor-Am GS with other WC-level skiers (Zettel, Brem to name few).

Few picks in men's slalom, also given the easiness they're falling on this slope.
Pranger is one of the few to have a rilevant history on the "Bellevarde": Gold medal at the World Championships in 2009, while last year was 2nd after run1 but made a little mistake and finished 6th.
Deville is on his falling phase of his career and hardly reaches the top20.

Ladies Slalom - Ofterschwang

Hard to understand how weather and snow conditions will affect the race, let's hope it'll be regular enough

h2h Gagnon - N.Loeseth - pick Gagnon 3 units @1.83 Won +2.49
Strange to see these two tied for the bookies, but it is fair to say Loeseth is in front of Gagnon in the slalom standing.
Anyway Gagnon overall is much better than Loeseth, the problem with the canadian is that she's good only in single sections or runs, and then she waste all the good she's done with some orrible mistake.
Like yesterday when she was fifth after the first run of the GS, then wasted it all almost falling down, finished 30th.

h2h Pietilae-Holmner - Mielzyinski -pick Mielzyinski 2 units @2.50 Lost -2
Pietilae-Holmner's got much luck drawing no.1 she'll have the course in perfect conditions.
She looked in big troubles yesterday, though, maybe for the snow.
Mielzyinski is a very clean racer, and hardly doesn't finish a stage, she also enjoy humid conditions, third place this year in Zagreb, and her only career win was right here in Ofterscwang last year.

I also pick: Mielzyinski top 3 1 unit @11 Lost -1

-0.51

Bad performance by Mielzynski, she also straddled in the second run and went out, hard for her to beat yesterday's Pietilae-Holmner to be honest, the swedish seems to have better feeling with the slalom than with the Giant-slalom.
Very nice from Gagnon 4th place, one of her best career result... if she hadn't messed up the second run of the Giant-Slalom of saturday it would have been her best weekend ever.

Again Maze shows her best, her mind-clutchness. She wins and also jump on the lead of the slalom standing 595 points against Shiffrin's 588.
The baby american felt the pressure nad looked very rigid in the second run, 20th time of the run and she's down to the 3rd place.

Also to mention:
Wendy Holdener, of the raising Swiss SL team, she's been on a steady growth this year from borderline top 30 she's into the second group of the starting list and now is 7th in discipline's standing.
Anna Goodman, veteran candian slalomist, but at her first World Cup race in one year, best time of the second run and 15th place.

27/01 Slaloms - Kitzbuehel and Maribor

Sorry, no picks for the Downhill, I just wanted to watch and enjoy it, mind free...

Ladies first:
h2h Gagnon - Zahrobska - pick Gagnon 1 unit @1.80 Won +0.8
Couldn't resist, I really like Gagnon, she's aggressive and deserve top placement, also true that she does too many mistakes.
Zahrobska isn't on high levels, due a surgery in the summer.
Slope is easy and Gagnon shouldn't have many troubles.
Gagnon starting with #9 and Zahrobska 19.

h2h Pietilae-Holmner - Mielzynski - pick Mielzynski 2 units @2.25 Void 0
Mielzynski is having a great season, while Pietilae-Holmner struggles to find her best form.
Also some numbers of difference in the starting list that should advantage Mielzynski: 8 & 15.

Men:
h2h Pinturault - Myhrer - pick Myhrer 2 units @1.90 Won +1.8
Myhrer isn't in a good period, coming from two DNF in a row, he also hasn't got great placements on this slope, 6th as his best not too good for a top like him.
On the other hand Pinturault struggles to put together two runs, because he's aggressive and falls easily in mistake.
This time though he'll ski differently because there's also the Combined Cup for him, changing style is never easy.

h2h Pranger - Grange - pick Grange 2 units @2.00 Lost -2
Pranger in bad shape so far.
Grange in raising form, best time in the second run of Wengen and a minor FIS Slalom won in mid-week.

+0.6

Great shame for Grange who was doing very well, had only +0.02s gap from Gross, leader of the first run; the french is in big shape.

I think that I'm overrating Gagnon, maybe her real level is from 10th to 20th, lucky that Zahrobska has been very poor today.

15/01 Ladies Slalom - Flachau

One of the most important and spectacular stages for the ladies.
Here there's also the biggest money prize but only for top ten like in every other stage but Zagreb where there was prize for the top thirty. (Link to the money prize list)

h2h Holdener - Gagnon - pick Gagnon 3 units @2.02 Lost -3
Gagnon is a better slalomist although her aggressivity takes her to many mistakes and a lot of inconsistent results.

h2h Duerr - Moelgg - pick Duerr 2 units @1.80 Won +1.6
Both are having a bad season but Moelgg's one is far worse also because she's having physical problems.

Found this:

"Le condizioni delle nostre atlete più esperte non sono delle migliori - afferma Plancker -la Curtoni nel corso dell'allenamento di rifinitura a Pozza di Fassa ha inforcato una porta prendendo una frustata nella zona lombosacrale che non le ha fatto certo bene; la Moelgg non riesce logicamente ad allenarsi come vorrebbe"

What Plancker, italian coach, is saying is that Moelgg can't train properly, while Curtoni got a little injury during the training.
So I'll add 2 more units on Duerr @1.73 Won +1.46
and
h2h Geiger - Curtoni - pick Geiger 3 units @1.80 Lost -3
Geiger maybe is a bit worse than Curtoni, but she's consistent enough. She should make better than an injured Curtoni.

-2.94

20/12 Slalom ladies - Are

I said I would try again pre-draw picks trying to anticipate drop in the odds, I couldn't find any odd good enough for it.
Anyway, some odds for today's race.

h2h Schild - Zettel - pick Zettel 2 units @2.44 Void 0
Schild didn't start her season as good as expected, for her also a 2nd place is below average.
Zettel made the opposite, with podiums both in GS and SL.
Schild yesterday didn't start the GS, for a flu.

h2h Gagnon - Zahrobska - pick Gagnon 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Huge difference in starting bib: Gagnon #9, Zahrobska #22, meaning Zahrobska will find a slope in worse conditions.
Also difference in shape as Gagnon is doing good in different disciplines, while Zahrobska is below her standards and maybe lacks of summer training due to a surgery.

h2h Poutiainen - Shiffrin - pick Shiffrin 2 units @2.18 Won +2.36
Over the even I'll always fancy the young talented Shiffrin. She's growing up and keeping a good constancy in results.
Poutiainen not bad so far, but Shiffrin seems always able to reach top placements.

h2h Mielzynski - Wikstroem - pick Mielzynski 1 unit @1.91 Won +0.91
Very low stake pick as both aren't constant.
I back Mielzynski that after last World cup slalom, almost a month ago in Aspen, raced in Nor-Am Cup with great results although other racer weren't at her level.
Wikstroem hasn't got official race since Aspen.

+1.27
Schild's flu, turns up to be a knee injury, didn't start and it's been better as Zettel went out in run1.
Gagnon is very aggressive, the day she puts together without mistakes the two runs she'll be very near to the podium.
Shiffrin get her first career win and is also Slalom's leader, definitively she's among the Big.
Also nice runs for Mielzynski, very smooth, clean. Wikstroem out.

Ladies Giant-Slalom - St.Moritz

h2h Fenninger - Zettel - pick Fenninger 1 unit @2.10 Lost -1
Zettel great form can't be ignored above all in Giant-Slalom where she had already got two 2nd place in the previous GS of htis season.
Anyway also Fenninger did good, and was the closer to Tina Maze, winner in Aspen's GS before she - Fenninger- felt down during the run2.
Tomorrow there will be a huge difference in the starting list between these two with Fenninger taking the start with the slope in perfect conditions as she's #1 and Zettel well behind and with a worse slope, as #14.

h2h Brignone - Karbon - pick Brignone 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Again picking the difference in the starting list: #2 Brignone, #20 Karbon.
Brignone couldn't finish both previous GS but from the super-combined came a decent result there hope she'll do better in this event, that is her speciality.

h2h Gagnon - Poutiainen - pick Gagnon 1 unit @2.10 Win +1.1
Here the starting bib is against my pick: #10 vs #22.
Gagnon, though, showed a great form and improvements, also trying new events like Super-G and combined.
I think that the final part, very flat, needs a good sensibility, that to me Gagnon has got, while Poutiainen is a bit too heavy and could get struck in it.

-1.9

Fenninger out in run1 can't be commented.
Brignone out in run2 wasn't impressing but neither too bad, just averaged, maybe under her standards... reportedly she's suffering some ankle injury that really annoys her and she can't train hard.
Good Gagnon still improving.

In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well inclined... strange comebacks in run2