Monday, December 17, 2012

Men' Slalom - Madonna di Campiglio

So, let's try to understand how head to head are set up.
Here's three pick I've done BEFORE the draw of the starting bibs.

h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Neureuther 2 units @2.02
h2h Byggmark - Deville - pick Deville 1 unit @2.25
h2h Matt - Moelgg - pick Matt 2 units @1.95

Pinturault - Neureuther
In this order they made 2/3 of the podium of last Slalom in Val d'Isere, where Alexis Pinturault achieved his first WC win. For Neureuther it was one of the many career podiums.

Every thing was a bit special in that weekend. Pinturault winning his first race, in his country, in a discipline that isn't his favourite. The following day a big mistake few gates away from the finish line probably prevented him from double the success, on the day that Ligety showed he's human finishing 3rd place.

In an inverse order they stand in the Slalom standing: Neureuther 3rd place with 116 points, followed closely by Pinturault with 108.

So all this points to a close head to head... but there's something missing.
The starting list doesn't follow the "Overall Standing" or the "Discipline Standing" (Slalom in this case), but another standing called World Cup Start List (WCSL), different for each of the four discipline.
In Slalom's WCSL Neureuther is 4th place, meaning he's in the first group and he can start with bib from 1 to 7, racing on a slope in good conditions. In WCSL Pinturault is 11th so his starting bib will be between 8 and 15, included, meaning condition could be worse and he'll take the start afterward anyway and this cause a drop of the odds.

Byggmark - Deville
Here momentums are in big contrast, if comapred to previous season. Deville struggles to find back his shape with a DNF and a 7th place. While Byggmark has little find himself after some seasons fighting with a change of style that sent him away from top placements; now seems to have find a good balance and had a good beginning with a 3rd and a 5th place.
Byggmark is 4th in the Slalom standing, while Deville is 14th.
Form for sure makes Byggmark big favored, for this, but again relying in the WCSL I'm pretty sure this odd will have a drop as Deville still as a spot in the first group, 5th, while Byggmark is in the second, 8th.

Matt - Moelgg
Also here there's a clash of shape, as there's been in previous seasons.
After coming near to retire, austrian Matt made some great season and gained the first group of the WCSL.
Moelgg, also fought with fitness and now is well out of the two group og the WCSL, being 19th.
This season however is inverting again the momentum with Moelgg climbing the standing with a 4th an a 11th placement in previous Slaloms, while Matt is doing average with a 8th, and a disqalification in Soelden due to technical measurement in his skis.

With this picks I want to see if they know the existence of the WCSL, a drop in these odds could prove it's so.
The fact that there haven't been races in this slope recently will reduce the variables from stats about results on this slope in other season.

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