Week 40 loading

Finally back and in full capacity.

WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.

Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.

Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.

Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned

At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).

The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.

So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.

Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.

Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).

Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.

Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:

M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.

J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.

Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.

-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.