Good profit from Tsonga - Wawrinka.
Tsonga was very erratic with his forehand during the first set while on the other hand Wawrinka was playing really well, looking much more solid on the baseline.
Price went down to 1.25 after Stan took the first set, but as it usually happens when Stan is on court, the match wasn't over.
Few games later the light went off, Stan's service got broken in the only break point conceded and Tsonga cruised to tie the match.
That was enough and apart from some minor trades after market's overreaction on some points I stayed with the all green built up to then.
I don't know what happened in the deciding set.
I think I'm done with Montecarlo.
This weekend there are the Fed Cup's semis.
Italy - Czech Rep. sounds a locked one. Italy has better singles and doubles, above all on this surface (clay). The Czechs usually put that little extra in Fed Cup rubbers but their shape looks awful and their best claycourter, Zakopalova, was even knocked out by allergy.
Much more interesting is Russia - Slovakia.
Also this tie is on clay court and I think this choice mixes things up rather than favoring Russia (home team).
Kirilenko little plays on it (she practices a lot in Spain), but it's not her favourite surface and things get even worse for Pavlyuchenkova.
I don't have a schedule for this weekend though, and a break should't be a bad move.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Friday, April 19, 2013
Montecarlo - QF - friday
Fognini ousted Berdych, and from a well paid price and I was on him, also let it go covering the red but not equalizing the greens. A pretty profitable one.
I'm not shocked by the other upsets: Murray by Wawrinka and Del Potro by Nieminen (I said Nieminen was great against Raonic, and I read his defence worked also against the Argentinian).
Like yestarday, I'm going to be here only for the first match, and part of the second if the first is quick enough. Oh, no! Second match is Dimitrov - Nadal, I'd rather skip it.
Anyway I couldn't ask for a better match at 10:30 than Wawrinka - Tsonga.
Wawrinka slight favourite (1.9 to 2.1), as he beated Murray and also because is the better claycourter.
With those premises I would have expected odds to be much shorter on him so it little puzzles me at the moment.
The match could be a dramatic one, though, with momentum swinging from side to side and both suffering of sudden blackouts.
As a proof of this: all their previous meeting went up to the deciding set, Tsonga leads 2-1 and they are 1-1 on clay, both match on clay took place at the French Open.
Strange thing is that they've only met in France (the non-clay match was in Metz, indoor; actually they also record an exhibition match, in Paris, on clay, and Tsonga won in straight) with crowd supporting Tsonga, but thing is going to happen again today and if Stan is the one looking in better shape and confidence, Tsonga will have an entire stadium cheering him, and he loves playing for the crowd.
I'm not shocked by the other upsets: Murray by Wawrinka and Del Potro by Nieminen (I said Nieminen was great against Raonic, and I read his defence worked also against the Argentinian).
Like yestarday, I'm going to be here only for the first match, and part of the second if the first is quick enough. Oh, no! Second match is Dimitrov - Nadal, I'd rather skip it.
Anyway I couldn't ask for a better match at 10:30 than Wawrinka - Tsonga.
Wawrinka slight favourite (1.9 to 2.1), as he beated Murray and also because is the better claycourter.
With those premises I would have expected odds to be much shorter on him so it little puzzles me at the moment.
The match could be a dramatic one, though, with momentum swinging from side to side and both suffering of sudden blackouts.
As a proof of this: all their previous meeting went up to the deciding set, Tsonga leads 2-1 and they are 1-1 on clay, both match on clay took place at the French Open.
Strange thing is that they've only met in France (the non-clay match was in Metz, indoor; actually they also record an exhibition match, in Paris, on clay, and Tsonga won in straight) with crowd supporting Tsonga, but thing is going to happen again today and if Stan is the one looking in better shape and confidence, Tsonga will have an entire stadium cheering him, and he loves playing for the crowd.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Montecarlo - round of 16 - thursday
Things worked for the most part of the day, yesterday. But I can't be happy.
Again, just one trade going wrong and the day was nearly fucked up.
The one going wrong was Almagro - Melzer, and that was stupid as I thought Almagro price was too short. And in fact I was on Melzer. But then Almagro didn't look so tired, and he played a good opening game of second set, and so I thought Melzer was done (his game was very risky, many serve and volleys...), I backed Almagro when an all green was possible as well.... later Melzer took the break and instead of reducing the loss, as usual, I took more of it. Melzer won and all the profits from the morning were almost erased.
Before this moment of madness I:
Again, just one trade going wrong and the day was nearly fucked up.
The one going wrong was Almagro - Melzer, and that was stupid as I thought Almagro price was too short. And in fact I was on Melzer. But then Almagro didn't look so tired, and he played a good opening game of second set, and so I thought Melzer was done (his game was very risky, many serve and volleys...), I backed Almagro when an all green was possible as well.... later Melzer took the break and instead of reducing the loss, as usual, I took more of it. Melzer won and all the profits from the morning were almost erased.
Before this moment of madness I:
- had an all green in Berdych - Granollers, Berdych had a slow start but took the set, after Granollers also failed to serve the set out.
- had a nice profit from Nieminen - Raonic. Watching this match wasn't planned but due to the all green in Berdych/Granollers I switched on this just at the beginning of the third set. Nieminen was playing really well his movements and speed were outstanding and he was returning almost everything, even though it's not easy to break Raonic serve. The Finnish won in the tiebreak.
- Backed Fognini but didn't watch the match, so the bet was left running.
Gulbis/Monaco luckily was a dramatic match and I made a good profit of it.
Today only morning matches for me, so one/one and half trade.
I find both Berdych/Fognini and Tsonga/Melzer interesting.
The first one possibly will have the same development of yesterday; Berdych having a slow start; moreover Fognini seems in a decent shape and on clay can be a tough one for Berdych.
Both Melzer and Tsonga play aggressive tennis, and anything can happen. Clay is the worst surface for the frenchmen and 1.22 is a bit short.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Montecarlo - round 2 - wednesday
I didn't post in last few days.
The losing streak hasn't stopped yet, though.
So I've halved my stakes and I'll go on like this until the problem is fixed.
The faults have been always the same: entering market I shouldn't (because aren't profitable, or because it is not the right time, yesterday I was just minutes late to Verdasco's 1st set choke, I backed him in the second but he had a meltdown), or inability to accept a loss and reduce it, or even worse enlarge it.
Anyway, today I'm going to be here the whole day and here's my plan, to have things clear:
of the 10:30 matches I'll watch Berdych v Granollers, the Czech struggles in early morning (that's what the legend says), his price is already higher than the 1.12 of my early lay.
I don't think Raonic is going to have many problems against Nieminen
Then I'll watch Ramos v Fognini. Fognini's price of 1.9 seems a bit high to me, unfortunately he is crazy and anything can happen there.
Sad Wawrinka v Montanes hasn't the coverage, Stan always plays dramatic matches.
Both Melzer and Almagro are capale of anything above all in terrible ways, Almagro also had a full week in Huston, his price worth a lay to me.
Gulbis - Monaco to close the day. I can't decide what to do pre-match. Gulbis looks in a good period while Monaco in an awful one. Still Gulbis played Isner in the first round: Huston final + transatlantic flight + Isner's worst surface, made it all leat toward Gulbis, it was no surprise to me.
The losing streak hasn't stopped yet, though.
So I've halved my stakes and I'll go on like this until the problem is fixed.
The faults have been always the same: entering market I shouldn't (because aren't profitable, or because it is not the right time, yesterday I was just minutes late to Verdasco's 1st set choke, I backed him in the second but he had a meltdown), or inability to accept a loss and reduce it, or even worse enlarge it.
Anyway, today I'm going to be here the whole day and here's my plan, to have things clear:
of the 10:30 matches I'll watch Berdych v Granollers, the Czech struggles in early morning (that's what the legend says), his price is already higher than the 1.12 of my early lay.
I don't think Raonic is going to have many problems against Nieminen
Then I'll watch Ramos v Fognini. Fognini's price of 1.9 seems a bit high to me, unfortunately he is crazy and anything can happen there.
Sad Wawrinka v Montanes hasn't the coverage, Stan always plays dramatic matches.
Both Melzer and Almagro are capale of anything above all in terrible ways, Almagro also had a full week in Huston, his price worth a lay to me.
Gulbis - Monaco to close the day. I can't decide what to do pre-match. Gulbis looks in a good period while Monaco in an awful one. Still Gulbis played Isner in the first round: Huston final + transatlantic flight + Isner's worst surface, made it all leat toward Gulbis, it was no surprise to me.
Friday, April 12, 2013
Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - Friday
Bad, bad, bad day yesterday... so bad I'm happy to take a break today (forced by things, not of my own free will).
Actually yesterday wasn't that bad, at least I obeyed to my self-imposed limit of liabilities per match.
It was bad because I'd have close the day with a decent profit after few matches, but than made a stupid thing and passed the rest of the day chasing, failing in it and making the loss worse.
Good start of the day with Vinci v Bertens, as expected Bertens would have been a tough opponent and Vinci won only thank to tactics, otherwise Bertens would have prevailed in most of the baseline rallies.
Again... I'm convinced that Vinci is not a claycourter, opponents with less evident weak points (yesterday it was Bertens' BH on Vinci's slice BH, crosscourt) and ability to handle her variations of rhythm can easily beat her. Most of the girl can create more pace from baseline, and are in better shape than her.
Than I got a loss in Carreno-Busta v Anderson.
There's never been a match here, and I only watched few games at the beginning.
The Spaniard served first, I expected him to hold, and following this a huge movement in the odds, thing that happened, but I lacked of firmness ("I'll wait for the next hold to lay"). Anderson took the break in the third game, I took the loss.
Begu v Cadantu was at the same time of Carreno-Busta v Anderson, but I early switched to the Romanian derby as it was clear the men weren't playing the same sport.
Also here I expected many shifts of momentum, some WTA drama, and I'd say the match was sort of epic.
Begu was almost dominant from baseline, while Cadantu was running back and forth and eventually winning the point on an unforced error from Begu.
Begu took the first, then she had a blackout in the second and lost it 6-3, she was leading 3-1.
At this point I could have gone with a good all green but I chose to be creative and have a huge green on Begu and a small green on Cadantu. Begu went 4-1 up, I thought it was done. But Cadantu came back and Begu and I stood there watching her doing so unable to stop it (I was like: "Just one game... Begu goes 5 games to something and Cadantu will go mad"). Begu lost 6-4 the deciding.
At this point my day was good enough, and I could have stayed away of Volandri - Klizan and just enjoy the match.
I didn't.
After the first set Klizan went down to 1.22, I laid that price, as Volandri was fighting hard.
In a short time I was all green. That would have made a great day.
But then I took a step further and messed everything up. As always in Volandri's matches there were many chances to recover.
And in the end as in Begu's match I watched Klizan comeback in the tie-break and I didn't do anything,
Closed with a red, that took my P&L just little under the breakeven point.
And I went like: "That's very easy to recover, let's just end this day with a balanced P&L, or even a a small green, if things go the right way".
Laid Haase. He took an early break and was clearly dominating. Shortened the red (enlarging the daily red) and switched to Kvitova v Minella, that was already under way and Minella was already a break up and best prices had gone. I laid Kvitova anyway, she came back and won the first set, and cruised the second for the match
Nothing live today, shame because I could watch Casablanca on tv, better than crap streaming.
I'd fancy Pliskova to beat Vinci, but Vinci's price is already drifting.
Camerin to beat Beck. Camerin made a huge effort against Zakopalova and Beck should be easier. The young German also has a weak serve.
Peer to beat Cadantu, as the Rumanian should be tired after yesterday's match, while Peer had a comfortable round against Craybas.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - thursday
Yesterday could have been a fabulous, shiny day, but poor selections and lack of focus in the only trade I was able to do covered it in red.
Thinking other seeded players would be ousted I laid Kvitova and Vinci, match I couldn't monitor, and moreover I "know" Vinci doesn't tank. Small liabilities in both, but still...
Both Kvitova and Vinci won.
The upsets were Lisicki v Cadantu (actually I picked this two days ago, but forgot), and Zakopalova v Camerin.
I was live trading that Zakopalova - Camerin. It was the kind of match I like with momentum going from side to side, and lots of service broken (19 breaks in 30 games played). The major difficult was understanding who held the momentum, since body language from both suggested otherwise.
No big disaster from me, just I backed Zakopalova, above the even (around 2.20), when she was a break down in the third set, Camerin held till the end.
All matches in both Casablanca and Katowice are televised today.
I'll start with Bertens Vinci, still think Vinci won't tank but Bertens could be an hard task.
Then I'm undecided, Cadantu - Begu or Carreno-Busta - Anderson.
I expect a classic WTA drama in the Romanian derby, but I also wonder what Anderson is doing in the dirt, and Carreno-Busta could be an hard matchup in any case.
I don't know if I'll trade it (discipline suggests me to stay awayfrom it, for different reasons) but surely I'm going to watch Volandri - Klizan and cheering Volandri.
Thinking other seeded players would be ousted I laid Kvitova and Vinci, match I couldn't monitor, and moreover I "know" Vinci doesn't tank. Small liabilities in both, but still...
Both Kvitova and Vinci won.
The upsets were Lisicki v Cadantu (actually I picked this two days ago, but forgot), and Zakopalova v Camerin.
I was live trading that Zakopalova - Camerin. It was the kind of match I like with momentum going from side to side, and lots of service broken (19 breaks in 30 games played). The major difficult was understanding who held the momentum, since body language from both suggested otherwise.
No big disaster from me, just I backed Zakopalova, above the even (around 2.20), when she was a break down in the third set, Camerin held till the end.
All matches in both Casablanca and Katowice are televised today.
I'll start with Bertens Vinci, still think Vinci won't tank but Bertens could be an hard task.
Then I'm undecided, Cadantu - Begu or Carreno-Busta - Anderson.
I expect a classic WTA drama in the Romanian derby, but I also wonder what Anderson is doing in the dirt, and Carreno-Busta could be an hard matchup in any case.
I don't know if I'll trade it (discipline suggests me to stay awayfrom it, for different reasons) but surely I'm going to watch Volandri - Klizan and cheering Volandri.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
WTA and ATP
With all the possible upsets and other three sets matches, yesterday, I went for the dumbest pick, Zaniewska +6, she lost 6-1 6-1.
Other ideas were Kamke, who beated in straight Melzer; Gimeno-Traver, at the absurd prices of 3.30/3.50 against compatriot Garcia-Lopez; or young Carreno-Busta(who won 38 consecutive matches, 39 with yesterday's one) against Casablanca's title defender Andujar but in poor form.
Then also ladies brought great battles: both Begu - Johansson and Peer - Pironkova needed the deciding set, sad I wasn't there for trading.
I won't try anything prematch today I'd rather watch matches as today I can, even though I'd pick Beck against Dominguez-Lino, and lay all the tiny-odds favourites seen the mass slaughter of seeded players in Katowice.
Other ideas were Kamke, who beated in straight Melzer; Gimeno-Traver, at the absurd prices of 3.30/3.50 against compatriot Garcia-Lopez; or young Carreno-Busta(who won 38 consecutive matches, 39 with yesterday's one) against Casablanca's title defender Andujar but in poor form.
Then also ladies brought great battles: both Begu - Johansson and Peer - Pironkova needed the deciding set, sad I wasn't there for trading.
I won't try anything prematch today I'd rather watch matches as today I can, even though I'd pick Beck against Dominguez-Lino, and lay all the tiny-odds favourites seen the mass slaughter of seeded players in Katowice.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Katowice WTA - Casablanca ATP
Red clay season finally in Europe.
Better time zone, live coverage still poor, but I can't complain after what happened in the so called fifth Slam, and also in the sixth.
As I'm writing Cornet is tanking against a local girl, I guess Katowice is not an happy place in this time of the year, still cold and snowing there.
I would have found interesting to watch matches like Pironkova - Peer or Begu - Johansson (and I hate Johansson, I find her really awful as player, she's pretty much like hit and miss, tons of unforced errors, etc...)
Pick:
First match with TV coverage.
Kanepi is at her first match of the season could be a bit rusty.
My only pick for today, and also no live trading.
I only regret missing Mathieu-Volandri in Casablanca, should be a great fight as Volandri lost many points for the final in Sao Paulo ATP250, and placements in another couple of challenger and now is back at the 110 place of the ranking and must fight hard to get the main draw of the French Open.
Saturday, April 6, 2013
Davis Cup and WTA
Perhaps my best day ever of trading yesterday, if not for the gain at least because I liked what I was doing and I had a neat feeling of what was happening in those matches.
Started the day with Kukushkin - Hajek.
Kukushkin had a break point (that remained the only one in the match for Kukushkin) early in the first set, Hajek saved it but odds flipped over and Hajek went at 2.1.
But then Hajek took the lead and was in commanding position in every rally: his price and what was going on didn't match. I backed him.
Hajek won the first set and the second, at this point I removed the liabilities, just in case...
Anything happened and Hajek scored the first point for the Czechs.
I'm happy that I let it run, it's kind of a first for me, usually I green up and go off, this time I stayed there and decided that Hajek wasn't about to choke.
Golubev - Rosol was different.
Rosol is still bearing the title of Nadal-killer although he hasn't done anything so good since then, he opened at 1.6.
Golubev, though, was unbeaten in Davis Cup when playing in Astana.
Golubev's first set was impressive, he was playing terrifically, but great help came from Rosol poor receive (4/24 receiving points won) and unforced errors: many aggressive forehands went long.
Backed Golubev and closed the trade as he won the set.
Second set showed that Golubev made a great effort to win the first set, and he wasn't able to keep it up anymore, this united to the fact that Rosol went up to 3 made me back Rosol.
The set stayed on serve until Golubev went to serve down 5-4, and his tension was palpable. He was broken and Rosol tied it 1-set-all.
Into third set Golubev gave no sign of a recovery, and I let my trade run.
Rosol won the set and went down to 1.1.
Here was my only fault of the day as I sensed the match wasn't done.
I could have greened up, but instead I only took off the liabilities.
Golubev had a pride impulse, and although his game was not as bright as in the first set he fought more and also got a break of advantage.
Here I started to frenzy and felt like I was losing something and rushed trying to "recover the green I'd had, if I...".
Smarter move was laying Golubev at 1.09 serving for the set on the set winner market, again tension caught him, and he was broken. I rarely play something other than the match winner, and I'm very happy with this from me.
Rosol raised at 6-5* and this time I went for equal green on both set and match market.
Rosol won the set, he hasn't been so good though, and he doesn't even shows that sparkle that some players have when playing Davis Cup.
This morning I got into a rerun Vogele - Wozniacki: Woz is still the same (I'd say hopeless), but Vogele is a good player, she hits hard the ball from both side, even though I think she prefers her backhand as sometimes she turns around to hit with it.
Nothing for this afternoon: day of doubles for the Davis Cup, while matches start later in Charleston.
Next week it's going to be an intense one with the red clay season beginning and moving toward Europe for both men, in Casablanca, and the newborn Katowice for the ladies.
Started the day with Kukushkin - Hajek.
Kukushkin had a break point (that remained the only one in the match for Kukushkin) early in the first set, Hajek saved it but odds flipped over and Hajek went at 2.1.
But then Hajek took the lead and was in commanding position in every rally: his price and what was going on didn't match. I backed him.
Hajek won the first set and the second, at this point I removed the liabilities, just in case...
Anything happened and Hajek scored the first point for the Czechs.
I'm happy that I let it run, it's kind of a first for me, usually I green up and go off, this time I stayed there and decided that Hajek wasn't about to choke.
Golubev - Rosol was different.
Rosol is still bearing the title of Nadal-killer although he hasn't done anything so good since then, he opened at 1.6.
Golubev, though, was unbeaten in Davis Cup when playing in Astana.
Golubev's first set was impressive, he was playing terrifically, but great help came from Rosol poor receive (4/24 receiving points won) and unforced errors: many aggressive forehands went long.
Backed Golubev and closed the trade as he won the set.
Second set showed that Golubev made a great effort to win the first set, and he wasn't able to keep it up anymore, this united to the fact that Rosol went up to 3 made me back Rosol.
The set stayed on serve until Golubev went to serve down 5-4, and his tension was palpable. He was broken and Rosol tied it 1-set-all.
Into third set Golubev gave no sign of a recovery, and I let my trade run.
Rosol won the set and went down to 1.1.
Here was my only fault of the day as I sensed the match wasn't done.
I could have greened up, but instead I only took off the liabilities.
Golubev had a pride impulse, and although his game was not as bright as in the first set he fought more and also got a break of advantage.
Here I started to frenzy and felt like I was losing something and rushed trying to "recover the green I'd had, if I...".
Smarter move was laying Golubev at 1.09 serving for the set on the set winner market, again tension caught him, and he was broken. I rarely play something other than the match winner, and I'm very happy with this from me.
Rosol raised at 6-5* and this time I went for equal green on both set and match market.
Rosol won the set, he hasn't been so good though, and he doesn't even shows that sparkle that some players have when playing Davis Cup.
This morning I got into a rerun Vogele - Wozniacki: Woz is still the same (I'd say hopeless), but Vogele is a good player, she hits hard the ball from both side, even though I think she prefers her backhand as sometimes she turns around to hit with it.
Nothing for this afternoon: day of doubles for the Davis Cup, while matches start later in Charleston.
Next week it's going to be an intense one with the red clay season beginning and moving toward Europe for both men, in Casablanca, and the newborn Katowice for the ladies.
Friday, April 5, 2013
Charleston WTA and Davis Cup
Yesterday's action was stopped by the rain in Charleston.
The daily schedule went on later (too late for me) with only three matches: Vogele and Bouchard upsetting Goerges and an injured Stosur in the order, while Jankovic cruised past Pegula (glad I didn't picked anything in this one, as I was expecting some kind of three set drama).
The rain anyway messed up the schedule and players still to play their round of 16 are going to play two matches in one day, thus my doubt on Serena increase.
Much more doubts on Venus, whose physical debilitation will make it very hard to play two matches with a few hours break between them.
I'm not going to live trade in the afternoon, so nothing to say about Charleston.
I'm going to trade some Davis Cup instead.
In the morning (in few moments to be fair) there will be the first rubber of Kazakhstan - Czech Republic, Kukushkin - Hajek.
Historical quarter final for Kazakhstan and also chances to go further as the Czech Rep. are without their leader Berdych, and Steapanek is injured and won't play any single match of the first day.
The daily schedule went on later (too late for me) with only three matches: Vogele and Bouchard upsetting Goerges and an injured Stosur in the order, while Jankovic cruised past Pegula (glad I didn't picked anything in this one, as I was expecting some kind of three set drama).
The rain anyway messed up the schedule and players still to play their round of 16 are going to play two matches in one day, thus my doubt on Serena increase.
Much more doubts on Venus, whose physical debilitation will make it very hard to play two matches with a few hours break between them.
I'm not going to live trade in the afternoon, so nothing to say about Charleston.
I'm going to trade some Davis Cup instead.
In the morning (in few moments to be fair) there will be the first rubber of Kazakhstan - Czech Republic, Kukushkin - Hajek.
Historical quarter final for Kazakhstan and also chances to go further as the Czech Rep. are without their leader Berdych, and Steapanek is injured and won't play any single match of the first day.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Charleston WTA - R16
Some matches with drama but only two underdog winning: Bouchard beated Robson, and Burdette beated Lisicki. Both Robson and Lisicki are in questionable form and I'm not surprised about these results.
In total opposition to yesterday, today I'm tempted to bet on almost all the underdogs :
In total opposition to yesterday, today I'm tempted to bet on almost all the underdogs :
- The price of Mattek-Sands is too short for me, I explain it by the fact BMS upsetted Stephens as underdog; Keys is a powerful baseliner, I think she'll win most of the long rallies.
- Petkovic after her comeback is still struggling to win two matches in a row; on the other hand Wozniacki has been put back into perspective by some results as the early loss against Muguruza in Miami. I think also here the odds don't reflect the real values of the two players
Same kick-off time for these two, I'm not sure which one I'll live-trade.
- I don't know Vogele, while I hardly trust Goerges: her offensive style grants her either many winners or many unforced errors and I find it hard to predict.
- Serena-Burdette... As I wrote after the first round Serena didn't look much interested, it may worth a lay
- Pegula is the biggest surprise of this tournament coming through two rounds of the qualies, and then Muguruza and Barthel. She's good reasons to be tired after 5 matches but she's rested yesterday. Also tired because of the two dramatic previous rounds could be Jankovic. This could be an interesting match to trade, I think momentum will switch many times, I'm quite sure its going to be a three setter.
- A bit short the odds on Lepchenko otherwise I'd fancy to pick her. I don't trust Venus too much.
- Safarova isn't in a good period, she had 4 consecutive loss before this week, she's been runner-up last year, though. Cirstea on the other hand is having a great season, and this green clay I think is a good surface for her, halfway between the most common clay and hard, she might pull the upset.
- Also Bouchard is having a great season showing great improvements, she's into the R16 coming from the qualies. Stosur this season has been just average, not too bad not too good, being her one of the big name I'd expected odds more short though, and in that case I'd have picked Bouchard.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Charleston WTA
My bad that beside that Tati +5.5 games posted yesterday I've also laid Lisicki and I wasn't able to decrease the liabilities.
As I expected Hantuchova-Erakovic was a better match for trading but unfortunately I experienced problems with the australian wallet and I couldn't enter that market. Erakovic won.
Other loss were the Putintseva +1.5 sets, at which I added an in-play small lay to Goerges. Goerges was never in danger red stayed there. The match wasn't televised.
Then there was Robson beating Cabeza-Candela.
Robson has been on a drift for the whole day but won in the end. That was I stupid pick though, since also the spaniard played a final on sunday at Osprey (a 50K $ tourney).
To save my day came Jankovic and Oudin. I can't say how much I was good on this one and how much luck was on my side.
Jankovic won the first set, not a surprise but also in that set there was the impression that Oudin was doing good things, she looked a bit to her limit, while Jankovic looked to have margin.
Anyway in the second set Oudin went on playing well while Jankovic instead of level up her game started being more faulty. Oudin served for the set at 5-4, was broken, but eventually won the set, she had like 7-8 set points.
Oudin winning that set was the key for my trading to go green, don't know what would have happened if Jankovic managed to force the american to the tie-break.
Having greened up I closed everything and I don't know what happened in the deciding set.
Looking at the result I'd say Ouding paid her effort, she was bound to keep it up and couldn't afford any drop of intesity to get the win; anyway I was happy with my green, that covered all my losses of the day and allowed me even a small gain, so I preferred not to risk any further (I'd have switched all the green on Jankovic).
Later I watched Giorgi-Williams. The score says it right Williams had to fight, and Giorgi was putting big pressure during the rallies, but also Serena looked not very interested in the match.
A well focused Serena would have smashed up an opponent who made 12 double faults.
Serena stays the one to beat but I wouldn't be shocked by a tank: she's defending champion but last year she went out of Miami at the quarterfinals. I've little laid Serena at 1.67 in the outright market.
I don't like anything today and I won't be live trading so my day is done.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Charleston WTA
Single draw
I've decided to focus on Charleston: Monterrey's time zone makes it a couple of hours later than I could afford to operate the way I like as I'll try also some in-play action.
Beside this also the fact that the transition of surface could cause some "wrong" odds, influenced by recent results on hardcourts (both Indian Wells and Miami were slow as claycourts, though); and the fascinating view of the Georgian house on the background of the Althea Gibson court.
Yesterday I traded Govortsova - Hampton.
Pre-match I thought Hampton wasn't very good on clay and was surprised to see her around 1.50, I've last seen her on clay in the Fed Cup tie against Italy.
Govortsova made a great start and went 5-0 up in the first set before Hampton started firing with full power putting pressure on Govortsova, after a 4 games come back Govortsova served out the set 6-4.
The beginning of the second set was like last part of the previous one with Hampton having the momentum and going 3-1 up. At that point of the match the american had won 7 of last 9 games.
Then she runned out of fuel and lost the pace allowing Govortsova to come back.
With many breaks of serve (both were playing very bad) Hampton also had the chance to serve for the set on 5-4, but failed. She eventually won the tie-break.
Into the deciding set Govortsova found back the intensity of the first set, made of anticipations and angles (her coach said she should be more creative) not that her style suit much to claycourts but still was better than Hampton, and eventually and fairly won.
The belarussian had a medical time out at half of the third set and got her left knee taped, she seemed bothered by it for the whole match(the time-out was before she went to serve though, usually purely tactical time-outs are taken before the opponent goes to serve).
Much more could be done from me on this match, I still have to work on selfconfidence and get rid of pre-built convictions: I've sensed Govortsova had the momentum early in the third set but I stayed on my conviction that Hampton would eventually prevail if she managed to level it up and hit hard as she had done between first and second set so I left the greater green on Hampton.
Much more I pulled out of Johansson - Czink, even though I traded less since it was a non-televised match.
I regret to have left unattempted Soler-Espinosa - Schiavone.
I don't know Soler-Espinosa, but Schiavone should be always laid recently, above all when she's favorite.
Today I'll live trade Tatishvili - Lisicki or Hantuchova - Erakovic both starting at 16 CET.
Both Hantu and Erakovic aren't claycourter and I expect the momentum to switch many times.
In the other one Lisicki who has had many ups and downs so far in this season is strong favorite but Tati is a better claycourter. I'm very tempted to lay Lisicki's price, currently at 1.2.
Other bets.
A. Tatishvili - S. Lisicki pick Tatishvili +5.5 games 2 units @2.05 Lost -2
As already said I won't give a margin that wide to Lisicki, Tatishvili is a player not so powerful so Lisicki can't use her opponent's pace and has to dictate it herself.
Y. Putintseva ( 1.5 Sets) - J. Goerges (-1.5 Sets) pick Putintseva +1.5 sets 2 units @2.08 Lost -2
Putintseva is a counterpunher that might like Goerges' offensive style. Putintseva has had some good results on clay in her junior career.
L. Robson - E. Cabeza Candela pick Cabeza-Candela 2 units @2.30 Lost -2
Robson hasn't had much time to practice on this courts, she played the double final in Miami on sunday.
Also the spaniard is a better claycourter and Robson's single results have been quite bad recently.
-6
I've decided to focus on Charleston: Monterrey's time zone makes it a couple of hours later than I could afford to operate the way I like as I'll try also some in-play action.
Beside this also the fact that the transition of surface could cause some "wrong" odds, influenced by recent results on hardcourts (both Indian Wells and Miami were slow as claycourts, though); and the fascinating view of the Georgian house on the background of the Althea Gibson court.Yesterday I traded Govortsova - Hampton.
Pre-match I thought Hampton wasn't very good on clay and was surprised to see her around 1.50, I've last seen her on clay in the Fed Cup tie against Italy.
Govortsova made a great start and went 5-0 up in the first set before Hampton started firing with full power putting pressure on Govortsova, after a 4 games come back Govortsova served out the set 6-4.
The beginning of the second set was like last part of the previous one with Hampton having the momentum and going 3-1 up. At that point of the match the american had won 7 of last 9 games.
Then she runned out of fuel and lost the pace allowing Govortsova to come back.
With many breaks of serve (both were playing very bad) Hampton also had the chance to serve for the set on 5-4, but failed. She eventually won the tie-break.
Into the deciding set Govortsova found back the intensity of the first set, made of anticipations and angles (her coach said she should be more creative) not that her style suit much to claycourts but still was better than Hampton, and eventually and fairly won.
The belarussian had a medical time out at half of the third set and got her left knee taped, she seemed bothered by it for the whole match(the time-out was before she went to serve though, usually purely tactical time-outs are taken before the opponent goes to serve).
Much more could be done from me on this match, I still have to work on selfconfidence and get rid of pre-built convictions: I've sensed Govortsova had the momentum early in the third set but I stayed on my conviction that Hampton would eventually prevail if she managed to level it up and hit hard as she had done between first and second set so I left the greater green on Hampton.
Much more I pulled out of Johansson - Czink, even though I traded less since it was a non-televised match.
I regret to have left unattempted Soler-Espinosa - Schiavone.
I don't know Soler-Espinosa, but Schiavone should be always laid recently, above all when she's favorite.
Today I'll live trade Tatishvili - Lisicki or Hantuchova - Erakovic both starting at 16 CET.
Both Hantu and Erakovic aren't claycourter and I expect the momentum to switch many times.
In the other one Lisicki who has had many ups and downs so far in this season is strong favorite but Tati is a better claycourter. I'm very tempted to lay Lisicki's price, currently at 1.2.
Other bets.
A. Tatishvili - S. Lisicki pick Tatishvili +5.5 games 2 units @2.05 Lost -2
As already said I won't give a margin that wide to Lisicki, Tatishvili is a player not so powerful so Lisicki can't use her opponent's pace and has to dictate it herself.
Y. Putintseva ( 1.5 Sets) - J. Goerges (-1.5 Sets) pick Putintseva +1.5 sets 2 units @2.08 Lost -2
Putintseva is a counterpunher that might like Goerges' offensive style. Putintseva has had some good results on clay in her junior career.
L. Robson - E. Cabeza Candela pick Cabeza-Candela 2 units @2.30 Lost -2
Robson hasn't had much time to practice on this courts, she played the double final in Miami on sunday.
Also the spaniard is a better claycourter and Robson's single results have been quite bad recently.
-6
Monday, April 1, 2013
April - Back to tennis
It's only since mid-March that I've stopped blogging, but it feels it's much more time.
After the conclusion of the Alpine skiing season I should have switched to tennis, but being tennis tour swinging in the U.S. time zone wasn't the best best for me, also add that this is the "golden era" of tennis so I decided to make my switch bit by bit in order to avoid becoming blind.
Accidentally I've watched some matches and... don't know how to describe, but here's an example of match from "golden era":
Later this week I may post something about WTA: two tournaments this week on Charleston's green clay and, on hardcourt in Monterrey.
ATP happen to have Davis Cup on the week-end, event that I find hard to bet on.
After the conclusion of the Alpine skiing season I should have switched to tennis, but being tennis tour swinging in the U.S. time zone wasn't the best best for me, also add that this is the "golden era" of tennis so I decided to make my switch bit by bit in order to avoid becoming blind.
Accidentally I've watched some matches and... don't know how to describe, but here's an example of match from "golden era":
Later this week I may post something about WTA: two tournaments this week on Charleston's green clay and, on hardcourt in Monterrey.
ATP happen to have Davis Cup on the week-end, event that I find hard to bet on.
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