Thursday, April 18, 2013

Montecarlo - round of 16 - thursday

Things worked for the most part of the day, yesterday. But I can't be happy.
Again, just one trade going wrong and the day was nearly fucked up.

The one going wrong was Almagro - Melzer, and that was stupid as I thought Almagro price was too short. And in fact I was on Melzer. But then Almagro didn't look so tired, and he played a good opening game of second set, and so I thought Melzer was done (his game was very risky, many serve and volleys...), I backed Almagro when an all green was possible as well.... later Melzer took the break and instead of reducing the loss, as usual, I took more of it. Melzer won and all the profits from the morning were almost erased.
Before this moment of madness I:

  • had an all green in Berdych - Granollers, Berdych had a slow start but took the set, after Granollers also failed to serve the set out. 
  • had a nice profit from Nieminen - Raonic. Watching this match wasn't planned but due to the all green in Berdych/Granollers I switched on this just at the beginning of the third set. Nieminen was playing really well his movements and speed were outstanding and he was returning almost everything, even though it's not easy to break Raonic serve. The Finnish won in the tiebreak.
  • Backed Fognini but didn't watch the match, so the bet was left running.
Gulbis/Monaco luckily was a dramatic match and I made a good profit of it.

Today only morning matches for me, so one/one and half trade.

I find both Berdych/Fognini and Tsonga/Melzer interesting.
The first one possibly will have the same development of yesterday; Berdych having a slow start; moreover Fognini seems in a decent shape and on clay can be a tough one for Berdych.
Both Melzer and Tsonga play aggressive tennis, and anything can happen. Clay is the worst surface for the frenchmen and 1.22 is a bit short.


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