Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Week 21 - Brussels and Strasbourg - Wednesday

Oops!... I'm already losing grip. Actually yesterday I wrote a short post on Monday's trades and a short preview of what I expected from Cetkovska at her come back on court.

Recap of previous days
Monday:

Daniels v Domachowska. A terrible match. Daniels is very poor apart from her serve, no wonder her best career result is a final in a 10k. Domachowska won with experience, I could have made more profits Laying her after she won the first set (around 1.15) but unexpectedly she walked about the second set. The match was suspended by the rain with Domachowska serving 40-30, 3-2 up, greened-up leaving more green on Daniels expecting a sudden counter break. The match resumed indoor a without livescore so that green was left there.

Cepelova v Tsurenko. This was a great match, really entertaining. I liked Cepelova, she is a bit of all-around player, able to hit from every position, from both side, she also plays many slices. Weak point are volleys, which she plays drived. And as usual in WTA, she failed to serve the match out when 5-4 in the third. Again I missed a cheap lay there (ca. 1.22), I admit I wasn't expecting a break back as she also has a good serve. The many up and downs of the match granted me a good profit even so, though. 

Only red was Govortsova v Rus. Don't why I entered this one. They already were in the second set - I like to watch matches from the beginning - and Rus was leading after Govortsova won the first set. Olga took an MTO, though, and Rus meltdown. I left my red on Rus, as incredulous as Rus at how easily on could meltdown.

Tuesday:
Larsson v Cetkovska. Petra was very rusty in the first set, nothing was working, serve above all. In the second she found more confidence in her best stroke, the forehand, and was outplaying Larsson. She run out of petrol halfway through the deciding set, managed two tough holds to make it 2-2 and then 3-3 but Jola's shape had the better of Petra. Happy for the profit, happier for Petra, hope to see another big run from her at Wimbledon.

Bartoli v Giorgi. Given the tank was sensible from Bartoli, I had a smaller profit than I could afford. That's because I don't like this kind of match and also because Giorgi' serve -or lack of- would embarrass me if I was Bartoli. 

Hantuchova v Torro-Flor. Small profit from this one because I entered while second set was already undergoing and also because I believed Hantuchova was better than her opponent in tie-breaker  

Today
Lots of matches in Brussels from 10am as the whole day of yesterday went lost, while Strasbourg starts at 11am.
I think I'll start with Kanepi v Cibulkova and this probably will be the only match for me today as I'm off for the afternoon..
Current odds are quite crap. 
I believe Kanepi is better than Cibulkova on clay, she also leads the h2hs 2-1 but none was played on clay, but below 1.8 I won't back her.
The trend of the match should be clear from the beginning: Kanepi's power of groundstrokes against Cibulkova's counterpounching. 
Kanepi also has more points to defend, she made semifinal last year, while Cibulkova has quarterfinal.
With Roland Garros coming soon I think Cibulkova won't be too interested in those points, a signal of this lack of interest should be unforced errors and attemps to play shorter rallies, two things that don't belong to her usual game.

Another match of interest could be Giorgi v Bouchard.
Again I think odds on the favourite are a bit short. 
I don't think Bouchard is this better than Giorgi. 
If Giorgi has solved her problems with service percentage (probably not because she's been always like this)  there could be a match and on the rally I'd make Giorgi slightly better.
Also beating a big name has the effect to reduce the odds the next round.
Anyway there are no h2h, strange because despite the Italian flag next to her name Giorgi plays almost exclusively in the U.S., so it's hard to foresee how the match could be.

My outright selection, Stephens, survived up to the third day, sad thing she's still got to complete her first match.

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