OlymPICKs II

Two high odds form the 2nd round at the Olympics.

Alex Bogomolov (RUS) - Nicolas Almagro: pick Bogomolov @5.31 1 unit
Again betting against Almagro.
Troicki has been just too much him self to win in the previous round
Bogomolov is not having a great season but he could be a very tricky player.
Maybe playing for something different from usual circuit events will push him to play better.


Philipp Petzschner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Petzschner @3.56 2 units
At such odds I'll pick "Picasso" even facing on of the Fab4.
He is the grass player. Lack of results are due to his lunacy.
If there were a special rank for breakpoints waster, Tipsarevic will be on the top or thereabout, and surely he's leading this rank for july.
From a technical aspect Petz is superior to Tipso (Petz is superior to many, to be truth), but it's about the way he uses his strokes: his sliced backhand won't give tempo to Tipso, and he needs tempo to play. Petz can play slices for long in a single point, so it'll Tipso that will escape from the point thing that usually took unforced more than to winner.
The great service, the many aces, will take another amount of points.
Maybe also the fact that a 2 on 3 sets match will help him, his focus in particular.

-3

OlymPICKs

It's a while I'm not posting anything.
Frankly I found very odd this 250-500 ATP on clay, as yesterday's Klizan-Bolelli (someone knew it).

First: I don't think most players will give their best, even if the Wimbledon venue should be an incentive.

At first sight to me notable odds are:

• Nalbandian tb Tipsarevic @2.5 I don't think the 3-0 in the real Wimby is thruthful, El Gordo worth much more on grass. Tipso has had a great couple of weeks (a title and a runner-up) but he also showed great skills to waste break-points.
• Troicki tb Almagro @2.5 Troicki has been one of the worst player so far in this season, collecting tons of 1st and 2nd round (it's a bit of wonder how he's lost few positions in the ranking), a little bright in Wimby reaching R16, while Almagro on grass is just... not on clay, even against Troicki he can't play far behind the baseline.
• Pironkova tb Cibulkova @2.4 Piro has had a bad season but motsly she build it on Wimby, this years her draw was very unlucky, but she has second chance

Also nice: Keothavong @6.5 vs Wozniacki: I'm not saying that Keo is going to win but playing at home, in the Centre Court...

Szavay@3.25 vs Baltacha: Agnes is un ranked she's playing for what? Totally free from pression and all...

Jie Zheng @2.10 vs Petrova with the chinese that took Serena in the third at Wimby

Venus @1.7 vs Errani. Same thing as Almagro for Errani: lack of skill to play on grass, her second serve is something should forbid her to be a top10, Venus will return several winners on it, and she can't hit back everything as she do on clay.

Still on break

I think I won't resume my picks this week, followed a bit past tournaments and still understanding very little.

Usually I don't follow the US hard-court season very much, and this european clay-court tournaments are very odd. 

Maybe I'll try something on the Olympics, I had a nice run on grass, but I feel this is something different from usual tours tournament. 

ATP - 17/07

I don't know if it's universally known but there's this statistical rule, one of those unwritten rules that often happen in sports; It's called "Regola di Tommasi" (Tommasi's rules, translated), it's something like this: players who played in a final (winner or runner-up doesn't matter) very often lose the first round in the very next tournament. It's because those players have played a full week, and there's a great amount of mental energy involved, and after the final they relax a bit and lose focus.
Todays picks will follow this:

F Cipolla - M Cilic: pick Cipolla @6.97 1 unit
Huge odds here for Cipolla that has already defeated Cilic once.

N Almagro - T Kamke: pick Kamke @4.79 2 units
Odds may differe since I made the pick yesterday.
Almagro was also complaining about some kind of shoulder injury.
Also Kamke to win the first set will be ok.
Anyway I don't think he will complete the first set, should be something to bet on "one ball" books, which I don't have.

-3 Not worked here

ATP/WTA 1st round - 16/07

 Hamburg ATP 500

M Bachinger - R Haase: pick Bachinger @2.13 2 units
Totally disagree with this odds. Apart from Bundensliga and Boodles challenger (nothing more than friendly) Haase hasn't won a set in last 6 matches. Bachinger, on the other hand, is having a great season so far on clay reaching also QF last week in Umag.

I thought in something more but most of the matches are tomorrow

-2 

ATP - 13/07

T Robredo - D Ferrer: pick Robredo +5 games @2.11 1 unit

Ferrer is one of those who hardly give their best facing friends, and I think he won't destroy Tommy, who is also on a very hot period. Maybe the +5,5 is better for it cover the 6-4 6-3, but my tendence to play 2/1 odds has prevailed.

A Ramos - G Dimitrov: pick Ramos @2.35 1 unit

I still don't trust Dimitrov at all. 

Moreover he's facing Ramos one of those typical clay-courter, defensive at the bone with top-spin, moonball, marathon runner, I don't see Dimitrov having enough patience to play many long rallies.

Can't decide what to do with Zopp-Hajek, Zopp's odds are tempting, but Hajek it's doing very very well.

E Cabeza Candela - Irina Begu: pick Cabeza Candela @2.53 1 unit

Again a spaniard clay-courter, with all the clay-weapon (unwinning strokes, moonballs...), facing an untrustworthy player. Begu can suffer of sudden loss of confidence and loose a match after she's had bunch of match point (some weeks ago lost from Schiavone while 6-1 in third set breaker).

On the other hand ECC did the opposite in her previous match coming back from 1-5 in the first set and winning it at the tie-break.

-3 Two unlucky third sets and a little change of mind about Dimitrov who is finding consistency.


Tennis week over, I'll be back again for the first round on next week's tournaments

ATP - 12/07

Since I know me, I know the risk of going in overconfidence being in such a good run so I'll play only one of my ideas for today.

F Verdasco - E Gulbis: pick Gulbis @3.20 1 unit
It's not matter of value, it's just that Gulbis is Gulbis. His Wimbledon weeks ago is the perfect example: he can destroy a top 10 (Berdych there) and then lose against Janowicz.
Verdasco even doesn't worth that trust.

Just to say... my other ideas were: Giannessi (at higher odds maybe, vs Gimeno-Traver), Gil (Dimitrov a bit overrated?), Stebe (vs Chardy... ), Cervenak (@5.8 vs Haas), Pavic (vs Kuznetsov both young talented and Pavic playing home), the underdog in Fognini-Dolgopolov if odds goes higher than 2.20.

-1
Again sad that Cervenak and Stebe would have saved me

Somewhere in Europe

It's while I'm not posting.
I've preferred enjoy the final of the Championships.

Back on betting. Many tournament, not of big level, the ones where it's more easy to find some Value in odds, moreover there's a change in the surfaces.
Nevertheless I wasn't much inspired.
Today things got better, let's try:

ATP Bastaad
J Hajek - J Nieminen: pick Hajek @2.23 1 unit
Hajek has had a very good year so far. He won a challenger some weeks ago and was runner up in other two, and also reached many semi-final, all on clay.
Jarkko doesn't play on clay since Roland Garros, where he reached 2nd Round for Andreev retired. Before that nothing special from him on this surface, on which he doesn't play his best tennis.
Hajek should have got used to lefties since Jarkko is the third in a row him.

Atp Stuttgart
D Brown - B Paire: pick Brown +1,5 set @2.03 1 unit / Brown +3,5 games @1,97 2 units
Maybe the two picks are not well played but it doesn't matter.
First: this is a very funny match and I wish to watch it, two of the most entertaining platers here.
Brown is a bit of home player, this will cheers him up. He isn't a clay player while Paire is, though Paire is very crazy, he could lose a set 6-0 or 6-1 (that is what I'm expecting him to do) then overturn everything.

For the moment this is enough.
I like also Begu @2.3 vs Dominguez-Lino and Bachinger @2.8 vs Klizan but both don't convince me too much

Ah... I was very disappointed by Knapp yesterday: many double fault, and trouble on movement. She hits very hard and deep but doesn't find much winners.

+4.20 Sad thing that also Bachinger and Begu won and I didn't played them

Wimby Ladies' SF

In the end I made up my mind and here a pick also for today:

A Radwanska - A Kerber: pick Radwanska @2.42 2 units
I don't know what's behind the odds, but it's a bit of a surprise to find the one better ranked as underdog. Above all in a Wimbledon semi, where also people who don't know anything about tennis are tempted to try something; and majority of them go for the dog.
Few days ago I read some comments on an article, now I can't find, about a previus round.
These run like how Kerber, on her rise this year, changed her game. And the writer of the comments was shocked of how this changement was fast, he/she says that this has stared in US Open 2011. The changement took Kerber to be a defensive player, still bit atypical.
Radwanska has defeated Kerber only after that USO, when this Kerber transformation started.

I think that Serena is the true favourite in the other semi, still too powerfull for Vika. But it's a no bet for me.

Aga won. +2.84

Zahlavova S. - Putintseva Live

Since I can't stand Ferrer to beat Murray and I found odds on this match bit crazy( 1.90 - 1.90) , I'll watch it.

Both at the 2nd round winning 2-0 in the 1st.
Barbora n. 62 WTA defated young french C. Garcia.
Putintseva ('95) n.127 WTA defeating spaniard Pous Tio. This girl on may won 100.000$ ITF Cagnes-sur-mer starting from as qualified.

P. holds serve.
In the 2nd game the real play starts and P shows some offensive skills attacking from the centre with the forehand, and varying with slice backhand and drop shots.
B. holds thogh 2 bps.
1-1

BZS goes to 15-40 with 3 net approach.
P. takes the game to advantages with a big serve to the body and a passing with BSZ at the net.
BSZ breaks after another bp was saved.
2-1

Barbora holds easily and luckily with two balls stopped by the net, maybe it's not much thight.
3-1

Some problems on the serve for P. She double fault twice in a row.
Again 15-40 and again P saves playing on the backhand side from wich BZS is trying to escape.
BZS breaks again avoiding to play from baseline
4-1

P. leads the game from baseline with heavy strokes from both sides but BZS both defeds well and changes the rhytm with dropshot and serve and volley.
5-1

BZS keeps playing very smartly not giving still point to P. and getting others bps.
BZS exploit P.'s second serve hitting long-line return and following it to the net.
6-1

Untill odds on BZS to break the serve still over @2 I'll pick it

Match restart on the same way of the previous set: P. hit cross backhand, BZS doesn't offer still point and also plays serveandvolley.
Very long first game on BZS serve with many chances for P to break. There also a very long rally, after that P. bend on her knees exausted.
Video shut and also market got closed for a little while
1-0*

When P.'s serving a second from the right is always the same scheme: return down the line followed to the net by BZS.
1*-1

BZS holds to 30 playing with the feet inside the court and risking on P.'s deep strokes
2-1*

P. looks tired on her legs. Her forehand swings sometimes goes rounder.
Rallies got shorter with P trying to hit winners earlier.
P's serve is broken on a double fault
3*-1

BZS easily holds. To the record a lovely forehand dropshot from a meter behind the line by BZS.
4-1*

BZS up 0-40 then three unreturned serves 40-40.
BZS breaks after 2 gp for P.
5*-1

P. won't loose too soon and breaks for the first time. Few mistakes from BZS.
5-2*

BZS breaks to win the match.

Smart match from BZS.
Nice talented this young P. Offensive baseliner, able to play onehand backhand backspin as defending stroke, though she's doublehanded. Also played good volleys though very rarely. Bad second serve.

Nice livebetting for me with all those BZS' breaks. 

Wimby Gentlemen's QF and other

No picks in Wimbledon for today.
I can't see any underdog upset his opponent.

The 13-0 head to head record in Federer - Youzhny clearly explain the mood with of Youzhny when he faces the swiss. There's to check Roger's back trouble, just in case...

Djokovic is just to much for Mayer. It's diffucult to say if Mayer is doing his best or not when he's on court. It's his attitude. Looks like his rival phoned him the day before because he was searching someone to play tennis, Mayer politely accept but his body language express the wish to be somewhere else.

Tsonga - Kolschreiber. I say Jo, to much powerfull and balanced. But the german seems a bit underrated expecially on grass, at higher odds (over @4 - @4.5) I'd have a thought.

Ferrer - Murray. They've never met on grass. The head to head only shows which is who's favourite surface, (with the equalize in hard-indoor). Also here there's a big attitude fight, Ferrer is one to respect for his combativeness (bit less for defensive tennis).
Murray... is one you can't like. And I say this being someone who potentially like Murray. Potentially. Because he lack of everything and seems irrimediably gone the time when he could change, he could place the piece to complete the puzzle. Of the fab4 only Federer was technically better than Murray, but he hasn't complete his own. He has remained 'potential'.

I have two picks of lower tournament.
From Biella ITF
Brianti - Burnett: pick Burnett @2.10 2 units
Young Burnett ( '92) is growing up pretty well.
Her groundstrokes are really heavy. She uses a great serve to build up the point.
Brianti is one of those great waste of talent, unluckily her hand isn't supported by her athletism.
The backhand is the best stroke for both, but Brianti's one-handed looks too much gently toward Burnett's double-handed.

Some challenger with an impossible name.
J Zopp - S Bolelli: pick Bolelli @2.00 2 units
Bolleli, for those who don't know, could be called the italian Gulbis.
It's hard to understand how one who was a top 30 who scared better ranked can't stay still in top 100.
Zopp is talented is in a pretty good period but he isn't on Bolelli level if the italian little mind.
Pick's all about Bolelli that always deserve a try as underdog.

Both mine won in two set +4.2

Wimby Ladies' QF/ Gentlemen's R16

S Williams - P Kvitova: pick Kvitova @2.42 1 unit
T Paszek - Azarenka: pick Paszek @4.5 1 unit
A Radwanska - M Kirilenko: pick Kirilenko @4.33 1 unit

Seems the underdog fest, but at this point anything worth a (small) try.
1) Williams  - Kvitova could be one of the shortest match ever. Huge serve, and big winner on the return. The head to head are in Serena's favour, both played two years ago, one on a Wimbledon semifinal. Petra should be a bit moer experienced now.
2) The less convincing one, but Paszek is on a 9 win streak on grass, defeating some good grass courter like Vinci, Pironkova and Kerber. All favours on Vika fresh number 1 WTA... could it distract her? ... Oh a great funny thing: this match has been QF also last year, Vika won and then lost to Kvitova that could be again her opponent if Petra beats Serena. I say Vika dislike it, and she probably will knows who's her opponent when she get on the court.
3) This could be a long piece since I've seen bit of both previus matches of them.
From the start: Aga leads the h2h 5-2, and won last 4 in a row, but they haven't ever met on grass.
Aga's run has been much more hard than the Kiri's one: Vesnina, Watson, Giorgi for the polish; Cirstea and Peng for Kiri.
Both can play a versatile tennis, but Aga seems to be not in the mood of doing so (like it's said about Murray), so she prefers play unaggressive strokes, a meter above the net waiting for the opponents to get unbalanced, or an opponent's errors. Taking yesterday's match stats: Aga won 63 points, 30 were Giorgi's unforced and 11 are Aga's winners.
On Giorgi's serve Aga records 2 winners and 1 unforced. To me this mean that Aga is a good returner but doesn't take any risk. Obviously Giorgi serves very fast but how can you...? Hasn't Aga got any occasion to attack on a second serve? Has her never tried a long line deep return? NO. She rather return short, on the very centre of the field, or a bit deeper at the body sometimes, even if Giorgi could hit winner from there.
Unluckily Kiri is a bit smarter than Giorgi. Kiri can anticipate on mid court bounce to hit a winner from both side. Kiri will hit less winner than Giorgi but also Aga will have less unforced to help her. Kiri with the feet inside the field keeps the brain on, she place both it winners or place the ball and approach the net, not like Giorgi that in similar situations looks like she's got the brain on 'off mode' and hitted the ball hard nevermind were it'll go nor where the opponent's was placed nor what could she do if the opponents retourn it...
I'd like to say many other things (Kiri's deep serve, Kiri's slice bh) but it's enough for now.

I also have yesterday's pending: Fish and Mayer.

All picks lost -3
I've seen Vika playing some volleys, I'd never thought her to be able to, like she's still improving. 

Wimby QF

I haven't found yet the pictures I was looking for. It's about yesterday's Spain-Italy, a very funny moment: there's Casillas waving to Balotelli where he should aim, after the striker missed the gol with a shot hundreds metres high and wide (obviously this is followed by well spelled (!) 'vaffanculo').
Anyway... I also haven't done my homework: I promised my self I'd have done a review of the first week of Wimby, watching some highlights and studing some stats, but I didn't. So no review and no preview, just some picks.
I had a good sunday laying the draw on betfair, lot of fun from it, I'll write down some lines about it one day (there's enough about it on the web yet).

R Gasquet - F Mayer: pick Mayer @4.57 1 unit
Such a odd is very offensive toward Flo. What has he done to deserve it? He's survived to Tursunov, not a newbe on grass; Petzschner, without going to far with memory he has been finalist in Den Bosh just a week ago; Janowicz the one who defeated the one who defated Berdych. It's a medium high level run from Mayer.
Both Flo and Richie can play tennis, have varius stroke. And the one who shows the most variety is Mayer: it's in his play, he can hit a deep forehand then go short with a drop or slower with a slice, he plays backspin backhand though the two-handed. He's supported by a great serve.

J Tsonga - M Fish: pick Fish @5.05 1 unit
I think Fish is a bit underrated.
He won a hard match against an home player, Ward, at the fifth, with all the crowd... then won the slam boy Goffin as underdog.
So i think Fish has had his chance to go back home, he hasn't, so he should fight and he knows Jo has some bad moments.

M Sharapova - S Lisicki: pick Lisicki +5,5 @1.91 2 units
Last year in semifinal was 6-4 6-3 for Maria. So the line was winning.
Lisicki came off some hard matches maybe playing not on her standards for grass.
Hope Sabine will serve like she can and Maria doesn't find confidece in the return: the russian doesn't know  interlocutory hit and forcing on Sabine first serve is suicidal.

A Radwanska - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi +6 @1.93 2 units
Also Giorgi as winner @6 is not that bad.
Camila is a hard-hitter, has a good serve, I don't think it's going to be a 6-2 6-2 or something near it.

Other matches:
Apart from Federer, Djokovic and Murray every match deserve a try beacuse they are very close:
Baker's odd is very tempting, as the Shvedova's one; Azarenka and even Kvitova could suffer of the empiness they occasinally shows. Ferrer is on fire. Youzhny and Istomin can do anything, a sane Yuozhny should easily win, but... Vinci Paszek could be a funny match to watch and to pick something live

Picks on Mayer and Lisicki are won +4.39