Draw
The end is near - the end of the season.
Last Master1000 of the season before the World Tour Finals.
Then everyone can relax, go back home or to some Miami' beach or skydiving from monumental tower or kicking off football matches or... not, here's a nice guide to the offseason, seems a pretty busy one.
Federer decided to not take part of the tournament, after a full week in Basel he opted for break before the Finals. So the seeding loses his n.1.
#3 Murray and #5 Berdych are the ones to benefit the most form this choice.
The czech early won the title far in 2004, and is projected to play the R16 against #12 Gasquet, while the quarter final, now Federer-free, is open to many options: one of #15 Nishikori and Paire, or one of Baghdatis and Simon.
Murray has never won the title, and he's never showed himself indoor so far this season. The draw doesn't look very hard for him. R16 against Cilic (Murray leads 7-1 the h2h), even easier the QF supposedly againt Tipsarevic, though Melzer or Dimitrov and Dolgopolov could be some funny entries.
The other half looks locked by #2 Djokovic and #6 Tsonga.
#4 Ferrer has just won Valencia, and #7 Del Potro has done something even bigger winning back to back Vienna and Basel, he's also to play the Finals next week.
Also seeded here the two bomb-server Isner and Raonic, both very disappointing indoor so far, or disappointing far from America either.
I'm going to back Youzhny @210.
The draw is tough from the start, but opponents have got question marks all over as well.
First round against Granollers who wasn't in good conditions in Valencia, then Ferrer, Youzhny leads 4-3 the head to head, 3-1 indoor, round of 16 against Wawinka, Misha again leads, 3-2, no indoor, but Stan's indoor career record are about 50% winning, not a good one for a top player. Hope to cash out at QF level when Misha will face Tsonga.
Also good prices for Nishikori and Berdych.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
ATP Valencia picks
I'm very happy that the lay on Tsonga has already landed, although now I've got to find someone else to back or to lay.
No, I won't.
Every second round match looks tough and I can't find someone to trust or to distrust.
I've seen Ferrer in action ad he looked very similar to the one who lost the semifinal in Kuala Lumpur: many unforced errors, that are not in his style, and not running on every ball, also not in his style or at least in what he was early this season.
Lay Ferrer seems the best thing to do since he's not 100% fit, but on the other hand the draw isn't a tough one for him.
Today's picks.
Valencia
Still to play a couple of first round, I don't see problems coming for the two favoutites (Granollers and Raonic).
While I lean for all the underdogs in the three second rounds to be played today.
Isner - Goffin. 1-0 h2h.
Their first rounds have been much different, confortable win for Goffin, while Isner had big trouble from Fognini, the italian has also been a break up in the deciding set.
The so called indoor hardcourt isn't really fast, and this allow the rallies to go long. And on rally Goffin has got more chances to get the point.
There's also a "geographical motivation" as Isner hasn't got a great tradition in Europe (nevermind the surface), he hasn't got a great tradition out of the US as well.
No Tv coverage but to me it's a Lay Isner @1.33
Verdasco - Cilic. 5-3 h2h.
Here I'd go with the head to head and pick Verdasco, but I'll skip this. Also the over 22.5 is below the even, but to me it's the best thing to pick in this match.
Verdasco is having a good period, in this last part of the season, at least compared to his summer. He's much more combative.
Cilic won 2-1 against Klizan, this could be an indication of how Cilic deals with lefties, though usually he hasn't got much troubles with them.
Verdasco and Cilic have recently faced each other in Shanghai, resulting in a 2-1 win for the croatian.
Hewitt - Dodig. No h2h.
I've watched Hewitt's previous round and it was a tremendous vision. Both him and his opponent (Monaco) were very bad and there's been a great load of unforced errors.
Dodig has had a bad season, though here he seems to feel better, he confortably passed the qualies and then beated Kohlschreiber in the first round.
Odds going down for him, I managaed to pick something @2.06, I won't pick anything below the @1.90.
So for me is back Dodig @2.06. Given the bad stuff Hewitt did in the previous round.
Basel
I'll go short for this beacuse I don't like the odds.
Paire seems to have some problems with hardcourt, as if he need slower surfaces to play his tricks. A bit surprised by this though, since he's got a good serve. I don't give much chances to him against Seppi, the italian is well focused and has got good movement on this surface.
Less chances for Laaksonen against Mathieu and for Falla against Del Potro.
Matosevic is tempting me. He did not so bad in Vienna, here the courts should be slower though.
Still I don't like Mayer on fast courts for his swings that require time. He lost in the first round in Stockholm to Berankis.
Might be a tighter match than odds suggest.
No, I won't.
Every second round match looks tough and I can't find someone to trust or to distrust.
I've seen Ferrer in action ad he looked very similar to the one who lost the semifinal in Kuala Lumpur: many unforced errors, that are not in his style, and not running on every ball, also not in his style or at least in what he was early this season.
Lay Ferrer seems the best thing to do since he's not 100% fit, but on the other hand the draw isn't a tough one for him.
Today's picks.
Valencia
Still to play a couple of first round, I don't see problems coming for the two favoutites (Granollers and Raonic).
While I lean for all the underdogs in the three second rounds to be played today.
Isner - Goffin. 1-0 h2h.
Their first rounds have been much different, confortable win for Goffin, while Isner had big trouble from Fognini, the italian has also been a break up in the deciding set.
The so called indoor hardcourt isn't really fast, and this allow the rallies to go long. And on rally Goffin has got more chances to get the point.
There's also a "geographical motivation" as Isner hasn't got a great tradition in Europe (nevermind the surface), he hasn't got a great tradition out of the US as well.
No Tv coverage but to me it's a Lay Isner @1.33
Verdasco - Cilic. 5-3 h2h.
Here I'd go with the head to head and pick Verdasco, but I'll skip this. Also the over 22.5 is below the even, but to me it's the best thing to pick in this match.
Verdasco is having a good period, in this last part of the season, at least compared to his summer. He's much more combative.
Cilic won 2-1 against Klizan, this could be an indication of how Cilic deals with lefties, though usually he hasn't got much troubles with them.
Verdasco and Cilic have recently faced each other in Shanghai, resulting in a 2-1 win for the croatian.
Hewitt - Dodig. No h2h.
I've watched Hewitt's previous round and it was a tremendous vision. Both him and his opponent (Monaco) were very bad and there's been a great load of unforced errors.
Dodig has had a bad season, though here he seems to feel better, he confortably passed the qualies and then beated Kohlschreiber in the first round.
Odds going down for him, I managaed to pick something @2.06, I won't pick anything below the @1.90.
So for me is back Dodig @2.06. Given the bad stuff Hewitt did in the previous round.
Basel
I'll go short for this beacuse I don't like the odds.
Paire seems to have some problems with hardcourt, as if he need slower surfaces to play his tricks. A bit surprised by this though, since he's got a good serve. I don't give much chances to him against Seppi, the italian is well focused and has got good movement on this surface.
Less chances for Laaksonen against Mathieu and for Falla against Del Potro.
Matosevic is tempting me. He did not so bad in Vienna, here the courts should be slower though.
Still I don't like Mayer on fast courts for his swings that require time. He lost in the first round in Stockholm to Berankis.
Might be a tighter match than odds suggest.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
ATP Basel picks and WTA Championships Istanbul
WTA Championships Istanbul
Draw
The best 8 players of the season, and 4 double teams as well.
For the single there's a group stage, each player faces the other three, so three matches, top two of the group advance to the semifinal.
For the double there's only a knockout stage, starting from semifinal.
I don't think there will be big surprises for Serena is a step above, then Azarenka follows. Sharapova showed some troubles lately, in particular on her serve. Kvitova did very bad, my thought is that she was getting ready for this event and for the Fed Cup finals. She's a great server and can be unplayable if she's 100%, Kvitova won last year.
Today's matches don't offers much to try. Only Kvitova @1.65 against Radwanska looks tempting.
ATP Basel
I don't know how to handle Valencia's matches, the best thing that comes to me is to lay Tsonga against Malisse.
Things are a bit better in Basel.
Back Soeda @2.74. Bellucci lost awfully the final in Moscow, and I don't think he's going to forget that match easily: leading the first set, losing some intensity in the second set, but managing to serve for the match on the 5-4, broken, then breaking up again and again broken back. He failed to serve the match out twice.
Soeda is solid from both sides and sholud suffer too much Bellucci's left forehand, the surfaces should be faster than in Moscow and this won't advantage Bellucci.
Back Dimitrov @2.12. Both Dimitrov and Troicki aren't doing well but Troicki seems really awful losing a lot of 1st rounds. If he keeps playing far behind the baseline he won't have much chances to overpower Dimitrov's groundstrokes, and in this case Dimitrov will easily gain the court and playing offensively.
I also like the over 22.5 games in Wawrinka-Davydenko, a matter of stats I'd say, since Wawrinka is playng a lot of three setter recently and also in previus meeting against Davydenko there hasn't been a straight set win
Draw
The best 8 players of the season, and 4 double teams as well.
For the single there's a group stage, each player faces the other three, so three matches, top two of the group advance to the semifinal.
For the double there's only a knockout stage, starting from semifinal.
I don't think there will be big surprises for Serena is a step above, then Azarenka follows. Sharapova showed some troubles lately, in particular on her serve. Kvitova did very bad, my thought is that she was getting ready for this event and for the Fed Cup finals. She's a great server and can be unplayable if she's 100%, Kvitova won last year.
Today's matches don't offers much to try. Only Kvitova @1.65 against Radwanska looks tempting.
ATP Basel
I don't know how to handle Valencia's matches, the best thing that comes to me is to lay Tsonga against Malisse.
Things are a bit better in Basel.
Back Soeda @2.74. Bellucci lost awfully the final in Moscow, and I don't think he's going to forget that match easily: leading the first set, losing some intensity in the second set, but managing to serve for the match on the 5-4, broken, then breaking up again and again broken back. He failed to serve the match out twice.
Soeda is solid from both sides and sholud suffer too much Bellucci's left forehand, the surfaces should be faster than in Moscow and this won't advantage Bellucci.
Back Dimitrov @2.12. Both Dimitrov and Troicki aren't doing well but Troicki seems really awful losing a lot of 1st rounds. If he keeps playing far behind the baseline he won't have much chances to overpower Dimitrov's groundstrokes, and in this case Dimitrov will easily gain the court and playing offensively.
I also like the over 22.5 games in Wawrinka-Davydenko, a matter of stats I'd say, since Wawrinka is playng a lot of three setter recently and also in previus meeting against Davydenko there hasn't been a straight set win
Monday, October 22, 2012
Week 43
ATP500 Basel
Federer's home tournament, and where he's clearly favored. The swiss leads the seeding.
#2 to Del Potro, who's the most dangerous and has just won the title in Vienna's indoor. Early this year Federer - Del Potro has bee the final of Rotterdam indoor, Federer won 6-1 6-4-
Hard to see someone different from these two in the final, as other seeded player haven't got the heaviness of strokes or particular skills that suit to this surface, even though #3 Gasquet, #5 Seppi and #6 Youzhny have already won an indoor title this season, but the field of the participants were of much lower level.
I can see some early danger for #5 Seppi against Paire, for #7 Mayer against Matosevic, for #8 Troicki against Dimitrov.
ATP500 Valencia
Again a local leads the seeding, here's #1 Ferrer.
I won't make him a big favored though. If the courts aren't too slow, and also given that there are some big server, plus he has been injuired and conditions are unknown.
The biggest dangers are in the other half of the draw: #2 Tsonga, #5 Isner, #8 Raonic.
Ferrer is in the same quarter of #6 Almagro, then #7 Cilic or #4 Monaco for semifinal projection.
The real danger for Ferrer might come at quarterfinal height from Feliciano Lopez or Querrey, these two will face in the first round then there'll be Almagro for the second one.
Anyway I sense some kind of spanish farce.
The best thing that comes to mi mind is to lay Tsonga: he's played the final in Stockholm and has showed some problems in keeping the focus for a whole match, then he's got to defend many points in Bercy, he reached the final last year, while there's only a 2nd round here in Valencia.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
ATP / WTA Moscow and Luxembourg picks - tuesday
So many matches to study and so many matches at the same time as well, that is very difficult to work out something really good.
ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.
I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.
WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.
4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.
Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.
Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.
Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.
WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.
In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.
ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.
I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.
WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.
4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.
Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.
Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.
Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.
WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.
In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Week 42 - Preview
Oh, my count was wrong, this is the week n. 42, meaning that I've got it wrong... nevermind.
Again a busy week, but at least time zone will be more fair.
Three ATP an two WTA tournaments, Moskow is a combined event, all indoor.
ATP Stockholm
Draw
Tsonga makes #1, and Berdych #2 to replay Shanghai's quarterfinal. #3 Almagro has got a bye then a qualifier, and yet in QF he could have troubles given his negative record on indoor courts, whether his opponent was Hewitt, Anderson or Nieminen.
Some early tough tests for #6 Youzhny against Brian Baker and for #7 Baghdatis against Goffin.
Courts should be pretty fast so Tsonga is my favourite for this one. Good feeling for Nieminen with this tournament, runner-up against Monfils last year, and who appeared in good conditions in last indoor event in Bangkok .
ATP Vienna
Draw
#1 Del Potro makes his come back after a wrist injury that prevented him from playing his second single match of the Davis Cup semifinal.
I don't like him as indoor player, his powerful play makes him a good one though, and he has a spot in the final to defend in here.
Tipsarevic makes #2 still chasing poits to the Finals, and Haas #3 and who looked in great shape in Shanghai; they're in the same half of the draw.
Melzer is #4 seeded and home player, while #7 and #8 Paire and Malisse respectively are funny player to see.
Shocking first round matchup between #5 Fognini and Young. Although his terrible year (5 win, 25 loss) I've always thought Young to be a tricky indoor player, mostly with his forehand (he's leftie); Young made the final just one year ago in Bangkok.
Another (brain)shocking player in here is Gulbis, Dev Varman should be an easy first round but yet at the second there's Tipsarevic waiting for him. Depending on his lunacy this could be one of the few tournament he plays at his best and where he get enough poits to keep his rank up. Going through Tipsarevic will open the door to the semifinal given this is the Fognini/Young's quarter.
ATP Moscow
Draw
Pretty a bad draw, low quality I mean, in here. And given this is Moscow... you know what I mean.
#1 Dolgopolov is very funny, though he seems to need slower courts, his quarter is a tricky one as well.
The young rising talent Donskoy (6th on the Challenger Race) in the second round and #5 Davidenko projected for the quarter.
Seppi makes #2. His indoor skills are much better than the ones on outdoor hardcourt. He reached Metz finals couple of weeks ago.
On the same half there's #3 Troicki who's got points to defend: 2011 runner-up, 2010 winner as well.
WTA Moscow
Draw
Far better quality in this WTA draw compared to the ATP one.
#1 to Sam Stosur, who shocked the media-press (not me, I was expecting it as I wrote here in my last week preview) not winning the WTA of Osaka, even though there where no top-50 in last 8 and no top-60 in last 4. Anyway, I much doubt about her also in here, but for different reasons than tanking: the historical-statistical ones, in fact she plays very little indoor and also has a negative balance, 24/25; and the technical ones, although she's a great server (greatest kick-serve in WTA?), her backhand is far too week for this kind of courts, I can clearly see lots of backhand landing in the drives either because she hit the ball late or she rush to much attemping not to be late. Safarova's leftie forehand could be lethal for Sam.
#2 Bartoli is in the most competitive quarter of the draw. This the other first round down here: #7 Kirilenko, back from recent injuries, against Vesnina, Shvedova vs Pavlyuchenkova and Jovanovski vs Arvidsson, solid indoor, the winner of the latter will face Bartoli in second round.
Wozniacki #3 of the seeding, in Bartoli's half, and in #5 Cibulkova quarter. The slovak is the defending champions, she's very solid indoor due to her return skills using her opponents power for her own advantage. the first round against Makarova, leftie solid server and double player, is an hard test to prove her ability.
WTA Luxemburg
Draw
Vinci leads the seeding, while Linz's runner-up Goerges get #2. Being DecoTurf courts should be pretty slow.
A winner is much unpredictable being the field more or less on the same level including some unseeded.
Again a busy week, but at least time zone will be more fair.
Three ATP an two WTA tournaments, Moskow is a combined event, all indoor.
ATP Stockholm
Draw
Tsonga makes #1, and Berdych #2 to replay Shanghai's quarterfinal. #3 Almagro has got a bye then a qualifier, and yet in QF he could have troubles given his negative record on indoor courts, whether his opponent was Hewitt, Anderson or Nieminen.
Some early tough tests for #6 Youzhny against Brian Baker and for #7 Baghdatis against Goffin.
Courts should be pretty fast so Tsonga is my favourite for this one. Good feeling for Nieminen with this tournament, runner-up against Monfils last year, and who appeared in good conditions in last indoor event in Bangkok .
ATP Vienna
Draw
#1 Del Potro makes his come back after a wrist injury that prevented him from playing his second single match of the Davis Cup semifinal.
I don't like him as indoor player, his powerful play makes him a good one though, and he has a spot in the final to defend in here.
Tipsarevic makes #2 still chasing poits to the Finals, and Haas #3 and who looked in great shape in Shanghai; they're in the same half of the draw.
Melzer is #4 seeded and home player, while #7 and #8 Paire and Malisse respectively are funny player to see.
Shocking first round matchup between #5 Fognini and Young. Although his terrible year (5 win, 25 loss) I've always thought Young to be a tricky indoor player, mostly with his forehand (he's leftie); Young made the final just one year ago in Bangkok.
Another (brain)shocking player in here is Gulbis, Dev Varman should be an easy first round but yet at the second there's Tipsarevic waiting for him. Depending on his lunacy this could be one of the few tournament he plays at his best and where he get enough poits to keep his rank up. Going through Tipsarevic will open the door to the semifinal given this is the Fognini/Young's quarter.
ATP Moscow
Draw
Pretty a bad draw, low quality I mean, in here. And given this is Moscow... you know what I mean.
#1 Dolgopolov is very funny, though he seems to need slower courts, his quarter is a tricky one as well.
The young rising talent Donskoy (6th on the Challenger Race) in the second round and #5 Davidenko projected for the quarter.
Seppi makes #2. His indoor skills are much better than the ones on outdoor hardcourt. He reached Metz finals couple of weeks ago.
On the same half there's #3 Troicki who's got points to defend: 2011 runner-up, 2010 winner as well.
WTA Moscow
Draw
Far better quality in this WTA draw compared to the ATP one.
#1 to Sam Stosur, who shocked the media-press (not me, I was expecting it as I wrote here in my last week preview) not winning the WTA of Osaka, even though there where no top-50 in last 8 and no top-60 in last 4. Anyway, I much doubt about her also in here, but for different reasons than tanking: the historical-statistical ones, in fact she plays very little indoor and also has a negative balance, 24/25; and the technical ones, although she's a great server (greatest kick-serve in WTA?), her backhand is far too week for this kind of courts, I can clearly see lots of backhand landing in the drives either because she hit the ball late or she rush to much attemping not to be late. Safarova's leftie forehand could be lethal for Sam.
#2 Bartoli is in the most competitive quarter of the draw. This the other first round down here: #7 Kirilenko, back from recent injuries, against Vesnina, Shvedova vs Pavlyuchenkova and Jovanovski vs Arvidsson, solid indoor, the winner of the latter will face Bartoli in second round.
Wozniacki #3 of the seeding, in Bartoli's half, and in #5 Cibulkova quarter. The slovak is the defending champions, she's very solid indoor due to her return skills using her opponents power for her own advantage. the first round against Makarova, leftie solid server and double player, is an hard test to prove her ability.
WTA Luxemburg
Draw
Vinci leads the seeding, while Linz's runner-up Goerges get #2. Being DecoTurf courts should be pretty slow.
A winner is much unpredictable being the field more or less on the same level including some unseeded.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
WTA Linz pick - Semifinal
I'm going to give a chance to Flipkens, back @2.66.
Well, said like this looks like she hasn't any chance to win, while what I actually think is that she's got many, and that her recent form gives her many.
The belgian won 15 of her last 16 matches, losing only to Azarenka at the US Open, and already caught an indoor title in Quebec City.
I've only seen her 1st set against Ivanovic, so far this week.
It was somehow impressive: Ivanovic was playing well and looked confident like she hasn't been for much time, but yet Flipkens was there, close behind the serbian, and you hardly noticed her since she was silent and unshowy.
She's an all around player, not an hard hitter though. She'll cause trouble to Goerges in the same way she did yesterday to Ivanovic, making her move from side to side on the baseline, also pushing the german beyond the drive with the forehand. Both Goerges and Ivanovic have many problems about movements and balance.
Well, said like this looks like she hasn't any chance to win, while what I actually think is that she's got many, and that her recent form gives her many.
The belgian won 15 of her last 16 matches, losing only to Azarenka at the US Open, and already caught an indoor title in Quebec City.
I've only seen her 1st set against Ivanovic, so far this week.
It was somehow impressive: Ivanovic was playing well and looked confident like she hasn't been for much time, but yet Flipkens was there, close behind the serbian, and you hardly noticed her since she was silent and unshowy.
She's an all around player, not an hard hitter though. She'll cause trouble to Goerges in the same way she did yesterday to Ivanovic, making her move from side to side on the baseline, also pushing the german beyond the drive with the forehand. Both Goerges and Ivanovic have many problems about movements and balance.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
ATP Shanghai / WTA Linz picks - thursday
It's becoming very hard for me to find some proper pick in Shanghai.
Also today there are several underdogs that worth a try at a first glance, but then they all don't inspire much faith.
Name and shame:
Haas to beat Tipsarevic. What stops me from backing him, though, it's the physical condition that's too much in favour of the serbian. From the previuos head to head an Over looks good.
Stepanek to beat Isner. 2-1 the head to head for the czech. Step also played a great match against Gasquet. Over looks good here too.
Baghdatis to beat Tsonga. Here's theres a mix of reasons: 1) high odd (around @4 for Bagh), 2) Baghdatis is playing really really well, 3) Tsonga has also played the full previous week (might be tired?).
Querrey to beat Berdych. High odds for Querrey too, but it's the one that is dislike the most.
Verdasco to beat Cilic. Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, and I think they (bookies, markets etc...) sensed it and odds are lower than I expected. This could have been the pick of the day, shame.
WTA Linz
I haven't seen these two play in this tournament and I lean to pick Begu, odds lowered during the night. But I don't know Bertens very well, she's a rising young talent, defeated Barthel the previous round and has got nice indoor record, though Begu hits hard. Match without TV coverage, so I'll skip.
Surpisingly odds raised for Mattek-Sands. Now it definitely looks a good pick. Mattek did something very impressive against Paszek playing like I think you should play on this kind of surface: great serve, hitting winners (mainly with the forehand) or at least playing offensively putting pressure with hard and deep strokes and net approaches, she's got a great net coverage being a double player. Suarez-Navarro comes from the great run in Beijing, but here's the surfaces is different. I'll pick this: back Mattek.Sands @1.96
Don't know what to say abouth the other matchups.
Martic is crazy enuogh to waste this opportunity, not a great one though since likely she'll face Azarenka next round.
Petkovic might beat Ivanovic and same could do Burdette against Flipkens low confidence though, I'll wait the live.
Also today there are several underdogs that worth a try at a first glance, but then they all don't inspire much faith.
Name and shame:
Haas to beat Tipsarevic. What stops me from backing him, though, it's the physical condition that's too much in favour of the serbian. From the previuos head to head an Over looks good.
Stepanek to beat Isner. 2-1 the head to head for the czech. Step also played a great match against Gasquet. Over looks good here too.
Baghdatis to beat Tsonga. Here's theres a mix of reasons: 1) high odd (around @4 for Bagh), 2) Baghdatis is playing really really well, 3) Tsonga has also played the full previous week (might be tired?).
Querrey to beat Berdych. High odds for Querrey too, but it's the one that is dislike the most.
Verdasco to beat Cilic. Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, and I think they (bookies, markets etc...) sensed it and odds are lower than I expected. This could have been the pick of the day, shame.
WTA Linz
I haven't seen these two play in this tournament and I lean to pick Begu, odds lowered during the night. But I don't know Bertens very well, she's a rising young talent, defeated Barthel the previous round and has got nice indoor record, though Begu hits hard. Match without TV coverage, so I'll skip.
Surpisingly odds raised for Mattek-Sands. Now it definitely looks a good pick. Mattek did something very impressive against Paszek playing like I think you should play on this kind of surface: great serve, hitting winners (mainly with the forehand) or at least playing offensively putting pressure with hard and deep strokes and net approaches, she's got a great net coverage being a double player. Suarez-Navarro comes from the great run in Beijing, but here's the surfaces is different. I'll pick this: back Mattek.Sands @1.96
Don't know what to say abouth the other matchups.
Martic is crazy enuogh to waste this opportunity, not a great one though since likely she'll face Azarenka next round.
Petkovic might beat Ivanovic and same could do Burdette against Flipkens low confidence though, I'll wait the live.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
ATP Shanghai & WTA Linz picks
I'm not understanding much about Shanghai Master.
Everything, every match, looks normal and weird at the same time.
The impression is that nobody really cares about this tournament, above all the ones that must care (see Almagro and Monaco), and everyone would rather go back home or Europe as well. Same for Osaka WTA.
After this dutiful introduction, I'm going to say that also today I don't like most of the match, and even in the ones tempting me I won't try, at least pre-match.
Only one pick but with very low stake, since there isn't TV coverage: back Dolgopolov @2.3. If the ukranian is in one of his good days his lot of spins, pace variations and all oddities he's capable of might cause many trouble to Simon. The frenchman needs pace and to work on the baseline using opponent's stokes for his own purpose, returning ball that comes to him very different from each other doesn't suit to his style.
WTA Linz
Yesterday.
Martic played a good match yesterdays, and altough she wasn't able to detach her nerves kept the grip and won mostly with her serve. Not bad also from Cirstea, she only lost control after she got broken in the second set, many winners from her mostly with the forehand.
Another good match was the one between Mattek-Sands and Paszek. The american feels really good on this surfaces showing how you should play in indoor (the sort of transformation Tsonga does when he passes from hard-outdoor to indoor or grass), this is well supported by her skills of double player.
Solid serves, deepness from the baseline bringing her many winners, and great net coverage.
Today.
Should be an easy win for both Azarenka and Lisicki, more interesting the other matches.
Back Hradecka @2.02. Both Arvidsson and Hradecka are good indoor players and already reached a final (losing) early this year. I think the czech is the more complete one though, she's also a great double player, while the swedish has got a solid serve and a powerful forehand but lacks of agility angles and often also nerves.
I also lean, but won't try before seeing a bit the match, for lay Ivanovic @1.17 as she's got to think about the Fed Cup and her forehand could suffer Niculescu's forehand (sliced and tricky, forcing winners against it easily drives to errors); and for back Oprandi @3 as Goerges wasn't the same of Beijing and if Oprandi dropshots as she can the german might easily suffer for she's very bad in movements.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
WTA Linz picks
Usually first and second rounds are the best to find wrong odds, chances, to bet on, above all in bigger events where the field is wider, not this time though.
Still there are some odds tempting me, but I dare not a bet before monitoring the match.
These are the odds I'm pointing:
Back Falla to beat F. Lopez @2.9
Back Fognini to beat Baghdatis @3.5... this really huge, but there's to say that Baghdatis played well last week and Fognini is Fognini
Back Hewitt to beat Stepanek @2.44... the one that I'm more confident into, Hewitt leads 3-0 the h2h but above all it's the styles of these two that makes me lean for the aussie who will return every ball as usual and the surfaces fast, but not too much, should advantage Hewitt's running skills.
Then couple of Lay for favorite that could have more troubles than odds say:
Lay Simon @1.31
Lay Raonic @1.19
I'm not going to try anyone unless I've watched a bit the match.
Plenty of interesting matches in Linz.
Suarez Navarro just made a great run in Beijing, supsetting Kvitova and Jankovic, her hardcourt balance is still negative though, Rybarikova is solid on hard and hard-indoor as well, a 50-50 match up, where I'd lean for Rybarikova if odds will move toward and beyond @2.10
Flipkens showed her indoor skills in Quebec, she's through some hard qualies match though and Cornet is a tricky one, a mental tough match might advantage the french.
Wickmayer is in great difficult but seems bookies and market sensed it as Burdette in only @2.4.
Less than 40 matches as pro player for the american but her skills were showed at the US Open, from a bookmaker point of view I'd say that odds on Burdette are short.
I'm still waiting for Tsurenko outburst, she stunned me month ago in Fed Cup against Italy, then not good come from her.
Halep played a good match against Sharapova in Beijing, but maybe it was more Sharapova's bad day than a good match from Halep. She, although the chances came to her, hardly manage to close a point. And you'll pay this on hardcourts. In effect Halep is more a claycourter, while Tsurenko looks more at ease on hardcourts and on very fast one, like I think this is. Around @3.00 I feel like Tsurenk worth a try.
Goerges is a great candidate for the title if she keeps Beijing's shape.
Hantuchova hardly goes thruogh the first round recently.
I'm going to Back Goerges @1.68.
Tough one between Zahlavova.Strycova and Petkovic as the german struggles to find back the conditions while Barbora as lost hers after a good summer. The czech could also get a call for the Fed Cup and recently all the Czech are in bad shape maybe to concentrate more on the final.
Back Martic @2.32. Second and last pick of the day. I really like her and on this surfaces she could be very tricky
Still there are some odds tempting me, but I dare not a bet before monitoring the match.
These are the odds I'm pointing:
Back Falla to beat F. Lopez @2.9
Back Fognini to beat Baghdatis @3.5... this really huge, but there's to say that Baghdatis played well last week and Fognini is Fognini
Back Hewitt to beat Stepanek @2.44... the one that I'm more confident into, Hewitt leads 3-0 the h2h but above all it's the styles of these two that makes me lean for the aussie who will return every ball as usual and the surfaces fast, but not too much, should advantage Hewitt's running skills.
Then couple of Lay for favorite that could have more troubles than odds say:
Lay Simon @1.31
Lay Raonic @1.19
I'm not going to try anyone unless I've watched a bit the match.
Plenty of interesting matches in Linz.
Suarez Navarro just made a great run in Beijing, supsetting Kvitova and Jankovic, her hardcourt balance is still negative though, Rybarikova is solid on hard and hard-indoor as well, a 50-50 match up, where I'd lean for Rybarikova if odds will move toward and beyond @2.10
Flipkens showed her indoor skills in Quebec, she's through some hard qualies match though and Cornet is a tricky one, a mental tough match might advantage the french.
Wickmayer is in great difficult but seems bookies and market sensed it as Burdette in only @2.4.
Less than 40 matches as pro player for the american but her skills were showed at the US Open, from a bookmaker point of view I'd say that odds on Burdette are short.
I'm still waiting for Tsurenko outburst, she stunned me month ago in Fed Cup against Italy, then not good come from her.
Halep played a good match against Sharapova in Beijing, but maybe it was more Sharapova's bad day than a good match from Halep. She, although the chances came to her, hardly manage to close a point. And you'll pay this on hardcourts. In effect Halep is more a claycourter, while Tsurenko looks more at ease on hardcourts and on very fast one, like I think this is. Around @3.00 I feel like Tsurenk worth a try.
Goerges is a great candidate for the title if she keeps Beijing's shape.
Hantuchova hardly goes thruogh the first round recently.
I'm going to Back Goerges @1.68.
Tough one between Zahlavova.Strycova and Petkovic as the german struggles to find back the conditions while Barbora as lost hers after a good summer. The czech could also get a call for the Fed Cup and recently all the Czech are in bad shape maybe to concentrate more on the final.
Back Martic @2.32. Second and last pick of the day. I really like her and on this surfaces she could be very tricky
Monday, October 8, 2012
Week 42
A very busy week with the WTA circuit slowly coming back in Europe, while ATP is engaged in Shanghai with a Master 1000. Still hardcourt season.
WTA Osaka
Draw
#1 seeded is Sam Stosur, I've learned to distrust these too-much-favorite for the title, and in effect looks good for some outsider.
Great difference between top and bottom half: "heavyweights" hard-hitters in the top, claycourter or discontinuous player in bottom half.
I lean for #8 Robson, she's growing up very fast, touched the title in Guangzhou few weeks ago losing the final to Hsieh, the road doesn't look much tough: #3 McHale in the QF, but the american is a very bad shape, Stosur or #5 Shvedova in SF.
Hard to say who'll go through the bottom part, and even an unseeded can make it though the one should be among these three: Hercog, Watson, Giorgi. The first two will face in the first round, the winner will face Giorgi or #6 Medina Garrigues.
Hercog and Giorgi seldom bother too much but when they do are very dangerous for many opponents, while Watson is more consistent and nearly upsetted Sharapova in Tokyo, but lost to Giorgi last week, looks like an interesting threesome.
WTA Linz
Draw
Funny description of the court "Deco Turf on Wood" meaning that should be faster than normal hardcourts, it's indoor as well.
Then I wonder what's Azarenka doing here, fresh Beijing champion over Sharapova, that is more important that the title itself, solid WTA Ranking and WTA Finals Race lead.
So the battle for the title looks wide open to the field, made of sinking, rising and alternating players.
Safarova, Wickmayer and Lisicki hardly go through the first round in recent times, Ivanovic should be included though she plays some great matches where she looks like the Ivanovic n.1 WTA years ago, and matches where nothing work, serve and forehand in particular.
Cibulkova usually is good on fast surfaces and Goerges played her best tennis since lot of time last week.
ATP Shanghai Master 1000
Draw
I see a Murray - Djokovic issue here.
#2 Djokovic just beated easily Tsonga to win the title in Beijing, and the frenchman might be again Nole's opponent but in the semifinal. Tsonga or Berdych... doesn't make much difference as far the opponent hit the ball hard and Djokovic uses this in his own favor to overturn the rally.
#3 Murray played Tokyo too lazily, still giving the impression that he could outhit his opponent if he was in the fancy of doing it. He saved the more point possible and had an extra day of rest before Shanghai.
#1 Federer is in the same half of Murray.
I'm not a fan of big-odds Lay but I really feel like Lay Federer around 4.5 worth it.
The pression to still in the lead of the ranking, Murray as semifinalist, and the death threats inducing nerves stressed, less practicing.
WTA Osaka
Draw
#1 seeded is Sam Stosur, I've learned to distrust these too-much-favorite for the title, and in effect looks good for some outsider.
Great difference between top and bottom half: "heavyweights" hard-hitters in the top, claycourter or discontinuous player in bottom half.
I lean for #8 Robson, she's growing up very fast, touched the title in Guangzhou few weeks ago losing the final to Hsieh, the road doesn't look much tough: #3 McHale in the QF, but the american is a very bad shape, Stosur or #5 Shvedova in SF.
Hard to say who'll go through the bottom part, and even an unseeded can make it though the one should be among these three: Hercog, Watson, Giorgi. The first two will face in the first round, the winner will face Giorgi or #6 Medina Garrigues.
Hercog and Giorgi seldom bother too much but when they do are very dangerous for many opponents, while Watson is more consistent and nearly upsetted Sharapova in Tokyo, but lost to Giorgi last week, looks like an interesting threesome.
WTA Linz
Draw
Funny description of the court "Deco Turf on Wood" meaning that should be faster than normal hardcourts, it's indoor as well.
Then I wonder what's Azarenka doing here, fresh Beijing champion over Sharapova, that is more important that the title itself, solid WTA Ranking and WTA Finals Race lead.
So the battle for the title looks wide open to the field, made of sinking, rising and alternating players.
Safarova, Wickmayer and Lisicki hardly go through the first round in recent times, Ivanovic should be included though she plays some great matches where she looks like the Ivanovic n.1 WTA years ago, and matches where nothing work, serve and forehand in particular.
Cibulkova usually is good on fast surfaces and Goerges played her best tennis since lot of time last week.
ATP Shanghai Master 1000
Draw
I see a Murray - Djokovic issue here.
#2 Djokovic just beated easily Tsonga to win the title in Beijing, and the frenchman might be again Nole's opponent but in the semifinal. Tsonga or Berdych... doesn't make much difference as far the opponent hit the ball hard and Djokovic uses this in his own favor to overturn the rally.
#3 Murray played Tokyo too lazily, still giving the impression that he could outhit his opponent if he was in the fancy of doing it. He saved the more point possible and had an extra day of rest before Shanghai.
#1 Federer is in the same half of Murray.
I'm not a fan of big-odds Lay but I really feel like Lay Federer around 4.5 worth it.
The pression to still in the lead of the ranking, Murray as semifinalist, and the death threats inducing nerves stressed, less practicing.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
ATP/WTA picks thursday
It's been a couple of days that I'm not too inspired about pre-match pick, I'll post some thoughts in order to keep them in mind when action will start tomorrow as well.
Tokyo
I can't see much problems for Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych and Nishikori. I'd like to put Raonic in that list since his opponent is Troicki, though I've found some difficulties for Raonic to play against players who stands well back the baseline.
The ones that worth a try are Baghdatis and Ito.
A Back @2.60 seems very good. Bagh is very good on hardcourts and although Monaco won in Kuala Lumpur his strokes are a bit too rounded and Bagh might easily gain the baseline and even step in the court.
Ito is a tricky player on this surface, he's ranked 7th in Challenger Tour Finals Race this season, building his rank mostly (only) on hardcourts. Tursunov came thruogh the qualies but Petzschner and Tomic can't be considered relevant test recently, still he won a challenger couple of week ago. Back price near @3 for Ito seems a relevant one as odds mainly are made with the ranking (66 Ito, 117 Tursunov), then upsetting a top player usually makes odds lower.
Beijing ATP
Seems all written in here, odds not worth a try for me though.
Youznhy to beat Anderson... Misha's playing well, also won their only head to head in Toronto. Skip it since is too early in the morning so no live.
Gasquet over the young local, not even a good one from what I saw in his first round.
Lopez might have some troubles.
Querrey should beat Seppi easily since the american is good on hard while Seppi himself said he hate this very kind of hardcourt.
Beijing WTA
Looks easy also for ladies.
Kerber - Woznicki the most interesting match up.
I don't like it too much but for me is a Back Kerber @1.61.
The german's won last two matches, both played after the change of style Kerber did passing from being offensive to defensive.
Tokyo
I can't see much problems for Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych and Nishikori. I'd like to put Raonic in that list since his opponent is Troicki, though I've found some difficulties for Raonic to play against players who stands well back the baseline.
The ones that worth a try are Baghdatis and Ito.
A Back @2.60 seems very good. Bagh is very good on hardcourts and although Monaco won in Kuala Lumpur his strokes are a bit too rounded and Bagh might easily gain the baseline and even step in the court.
Ito is a tricky player on this surface, he's ranked 7th in Challenger Tour Finals Race this season, building his rank mostly (only) on hardcourts. Tursunov came thruogh the qualies but Petzschner and Tomic can't be considered relevant test recently, still he won a challenger couple of week ago. Back price near @3 for Ito seems a relevant one as odds mainly are made with the ranking (66 Ito, 117 Tursunov), then upsetting a top player usually makes odds lower.
Beijing ATP
Seems all written in here, odds not worth a try for me though.
Youznhy to beat Anderson... Misha's playing well, also won their only head to head in Toronto. Skip it since is too early in the morning so no live.
Gasquet over the young local, not even a good one from what I saw in his first round.
Lopez might have some troubles.
Querrey should beat Seppi easily since the american is good on hard while Seppi himself said he hate this very kind of hardcourt.
Beijing WTA
Looks easy also for ladies.
Kerber - Woznicki the most interesting match up.
I don't like it too much but for me is a Back Kerber @1.61.
The german's won last two matches, both played after the change of style Kerber did passing from being offensive to defensive.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)