Tuesday, December 18, 2012

"There's a little black spot on the sun today"?

Following this post, I made yesterday where I was questioning whether bookies know the existence of the WCSL, the Standing that rules the draw of the starting list, and that is different from other standings, that award the Cups. 
The answer I dare give is "No, they don't". And altough the way they set up the head to heads is still a mystery, form conditions, and recent results seem the main factors they value.

These are the starting bib in the head to head I selected: 
Pinturault #15 - Neureuther #3
Byggmark #11 - Deville #2
Matt #4 - Moelgg #19

Here the odds before and after the draw of the starting list for the Slalom in Madonna di Campiglio.


  
The movements I expected actually took place.
Deville - Byggmark had only a little shiver, and I suppose recent results/shape is playing a big role in this head to head.

As girls are racing a Slalom and a Giant-Slalom in next days, I'll try again this sort of pre-draw pick, before "copyrigthing" this as pre-race trading (actually it's not trading since exchanges don't offer much liquidity on this sport, above all before the start of the race).  
If they still leave evidences of such a ignorance this is going to be a quite good method, at least for our health, as going all green is always nice, above all in a sport where anything can happen at any moment. 

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