Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Alpine skiing World Cup - types of bets and exchange markets

Following from here, where I gave an introduction to the alpine skiing, as it's not so popular, now I'll talk about types of betting.

DISCLAIMER: everything I write comes from me and my experience, which is made from my observation point -sitting here on my chair at the PC-, there isn't nothing technical, nothing coming from "inside": neither pro-skiing, nor bookmaker.


Types of bets

There are several types: head-to-head (h2h), winner, podium and others.

Winner and podium are simple as you think, but remember that some events has got two runs.

Head-to-Head: this type of bet compares the final position of two racer.
I don't know the criteria that bookies use to set up who's going h2h against who, in a h2h offered bet.
Not being a 1 vs 1 sport, but a 1 vs the field sport it's very uncertain how to set up the two names.
I guess they look at the standing of that speciality from the previous season and to recent form/results, that are similar[1] to the starting number the two can get[2]. Somehow they manage to set up close h2h.
I recognize that this is very subjective but this is my favourite type for may reason:
1) coming from my habit to make picks from tennis matches, this is where I find a comfortable area.
2) I'm an ill-study-methodist of styles either for tennis and skiing and I like this kind of clash.
Things can change very much from a discipline to an other, but even in a single discipline one slope could have very different features from another one and suit better to A than to B.
And I think that bookmaker don't have a great knowledge about this. Anyway for top skier differences are small, but for the majority of them these little things could influence their performance on a slope.
3) It's a matter of probability.
This is a cruel sport and a little error, like passing with one ski few centimeters away from the optimal line, could cause a great loss of time and even a DNF (Do Not Finish), because where your ski has passed there was a piece of ice and you didn't know and you're surprised by the change of grip of the ski and so you lose balance and fall down or manage to recover but you almost stop and lose time anyway.
So, in an high risk of fault sport, betting on h2h increase the probability of picking the right selection to 50-50 doesn't matter all the motivation about styles you give.

There's another type of bet, I don't use it, though, Backus none of my books offers it, but I find it a good one.
Winner of the group: pick the winner in a group (4, 5, or 6) of racer.
Again racer are set up by the book following unknown criteria.

Markets

This is a very poor sport and there isn't much liquidity.
Backers tend to back too high and layers tend to lay too low... many possibilities to be unmatched.
It's very hard to have a good trade.
Things go too fast (at least for me) and if you manage to back someone at a good price, and eventually he/she makes a good run likely all the unmatched money will be withdrew and you'll take the risk to not be able to cash out.
Also to notice that TVs are well behind the official live timing.
Anyway there are no bots, no sidecourters (sideslopers?).


General rules

If a racer doesn't start the run1, bet is voided.
In a h2h: the racer you selected doesn't finish, the opponent finish: you lose. And you win in the other way around. Void if both don't finish the race.


[1] Starting lists (WCSL) and Cup standings (WC) don't follow the same formulas to assign points, meaning they've got two separate standing (as if in tennis there were, say, ATP Ranking, and a Draw Entry Ranking).
Anyway at the beginning of the season they're the same, while as season goes on the placements affect the two rankings in different ways, but hardly they'll differ in a big way if the skier is constant enough in his/her results (I'll make a post on standings).
[2] Starting bib are drawn, but there are group in which one can be drawn. E.g.: number one of the Starting list ranking can draw any number from 1 to 7 as if Djokovic (n.1 ATP) at the coming Australian Open could be #1 of the seeding as well as #7.

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