Val d'Isere/Alta Badia - results

Made myself a good Christmas gift this weekend (implicit meaning: Christmas comes only once a year!).
Got in all the biggest odds and biggest stakes.

The lost ones were actually conceptually losing ones: Moelgg still has work to do, though he didn't finish far from Richard; Nani DNF-ed but was far behind Luitz, who eventually scored a top10 placement prooving wrong my one-event-man definition of him.

Few words on Maze: she was out of the top10 but I saw flashes of the "old her", I think a mistake in run1, which stole her 1 second or so, mentally affected her even in run2, which was also affected by a long stop just befere her due to course manteinance. I believe January will be a great month for her, Kostelic-style.

I found Val d'Isere ladies GS very interesting: the slope his quite large with humps and inclinations of the ground left and right, and potentially allows to draw different courses, although the key passages are very similar to those of the DH (an hump after few gates and a compression mid-course were you need to bring speed before the final long flat). Unfortunately this year there was little snow, e.g. a hole formed at the height of the third gate and many athletes had difficult there (as said before Maze was stopped while they tried to adjust it).




      

Sun 22/12 - Val d'Isere and Alta Badia Giant-Slaloms

Results form the two downhills, a little 1.8u profit.
Fanchini crashed, it was a strange crash after a jump but not on the landing, her run was too short to be commented.
Maze, though, made a good run and was 2nd behind Kaufmann-Abderalden at her 1st career victory. Swiss team was all over placing also Weirather (not Swiss but training with them) Aufdenblatten and Gisin in the top10. Gut was 25th and Suter 17th, and this says much about the characteristics of this slope: it's quite easy, all that matters is being fast, there are few key passages which you have to prepare so to come out of them with the right direction and speed.

Val Gardena's downhill as expected was a question between Canada and Norway, placing a combined of 5 athletes in the top 10. Guay won in front of Jansrud and Clarey.

Picks for sunday's Giant-Slaloms

In short:
Shiffrin was slow in her last slalom, it could be the physical preparation.
Brignone looked good before going out in last GS. She even finished in the top30 in super-g meaning she's in good shape.
Maze was 2nd in DH but I'm still doubtful on technical disciplines.

In men's GS I'm opposing Simoncelli and Rychard for the same motivations: they're in a falling phase and the change of ski radius last season emphasized this fall.
Same could be said for Blardone, anyway Dopfer isn't too brilliant at the moment and I don't trust him on a single at a low price, so put it in a double with Raich which should beat Olsson, but again the price is too low.
Nani - Luitz is a tough head to head between two raising youngster, anyway to me Luitz is like a one-event-man (Val d'Isere) while Nani is doing good everywhere.

Sat 21/12 - Val d'Isere and Val Gardena - dowhills

Both ladies and men are up to downhills today. Sun is shining on both venues, that marks a big differences compared to mid-week trainings that were done either on snow or fog, included yesterday's men's super-g which had good 30 seconds of the course wrapped in a thick fog.

I don't remember Val d'Isere course, also because in the past the slope changed for the World Championships but I can't say in what year changed as well.
Val Gardena's Saslong, on the other hand has always been the same, the course it's "easy" but its easiness makes it hard to recover from mistakes, even little ones. Characteristics of this slope are the humps and jumps and its bulging ground.
Italians, although "at home", don't like this slope and use to perform badly, opposing them would be a goog move.
Canadians and Vikings -they also share radio reports- have a good tradition here. Last year US Steve Nyman won with an high number as he started with improved weather conditions and visibility.

Anyway I couldn't find any bettable selection for in men's DH, all pick are from ladies' one:

Elena Fanchini is among the most consistent downhillers (with Weirather and Fenninger) so far, showing great performances on all kind of conditions. Gut and Riesch have their favourite kinds of slope, technical and tough the first flat and easy the latter; Vonn seems back but I keep doubt on her shape; same for Maze whose shape still not the best.  

Surprised to see Fanchini underdog vs Maze, and that price for the podium with so many doubts around those "above" her.

Picked Aufdenblatten on Suter as I rate Suter more like a Super-G-er than a downhiller, opposite consideration for Aufdenblatten. Low expectation on this anyway since both aren't consistent and could be either black or white.

Courchevel - SL Ladies results

Very little green, obviously better than a red.

Actually shocked by Schild, or the Schilds, as Marlies won and younger sister Bernadette was 3rd.
Holdener was 9th, more or less where I expected her, surprise was Schild, I believed her a step behind all this yougsters but no, she's still got it.
Anyway Austria was globally good with the Schild sisters 1st and 3rd, Zettel 4th, Kirchgasser 5th, Thalmann 7th (career best) and 2nd best time in run2, Daum 10th and Hosp 13th.
My explanation to this, beside the fact that they all are actually good, is that the snow was "strange", it got rotten very fast forming big grains, and deep trails appeared nearby the base of the posts. Austrians usually are the best in such conditions.

As said Thalmann was good, and is in a great period of confidence, and that's great since she used to get DNFs too often.
Eklund was 11th, she is very precise not aggressive, in fact there's consistency in her results very few DNFs, but on the other hand she's still missing a top result -she's got time for that. Yesterday I think she chocked in run 2, was 4th after the first leg and I believe she's never been placed like that before.
Duerr and Strachova were lethargic their movements were slow, I'll add at this club also Maze and, surprise surprise... Shiffrin 12th with two bad runs, no errors just lack of her usual brillancy.

Unimpressive Swenn-Larsson 15th with two average runs, better from Feierabend 19th but with a higher bib.

Big disappointment was Pietilae-Holmner. Actually her run was too short to be commented, but irony she went long exiting a gate with a very close angle and missed the following gate (my opinion: on a snow with more grip she'll managed to stay in), Poutiainen got difficulties at the same gate but somehow she made the turn on only one ski, the internal one moreover, stayed in but with a big loss of time. Other mistakes came in the second and she eventually went off. Shame.

Courchevel's slope is a bit lively: there are humps which can play bad trick depending on the course setting, inclinations changes here and there (flat-steep-steeper etc...), a long flat section before the finish line. The snow was bad

Tue 17/12 - Courchevel - Ladies Slalom

Mid-week slalom, second of the season, for the ladies. Strange that it's in the morning - mid-week races use to be night races: more fashinating, more TV audience etc...

Slaloms where held here in 2011 and 2010, to say how things changed since the last time: Shiffrin was bib #38 and didn't finish run1, Vonn was bib #16 while now she isn't ranked anymore in SL starting list.

2011's top5 was M.Schild, Poutiainen, Zettel, Kirchgasser, Maze.
While in 2010 it was M.Schild, Poutiainen, Maze, Pietilae-Holmner, Zettel.

Made few picks, easy ones because it's only the scenod slalom of the season so "trends" are yet to show off:

Marlies is 2/2 here, but now she's older, she's had a year-off because of injury, harldy she'll repeat those performances. Holdener is a nice young who's doing well I'd rate her in the top15 of slalom in WC.

I'd rate Swenn-Larsson much better than Feierabend, and also Swenn-Larsson is in the second group of the starting list (bib 8 to 16) while Feierabend is 34th. 

Better shape also for Pietilae-Holmner showed in GS where she's a steady top10 despite the high bibs, in slalom she's in the first group (bib 1 to 7).

In the double picking Eklund and Thalmann, both showing better shape, Thalmann scored two 3rd place in Nor-Am and European Cup slaloms, Eklund won that EC slalom. While going through Strachova and Duerr recent races I've found that both haven't competed in slalom after Levi, racing instead Giant-Slalom (with no relevant results) and surprisingly Super-Gs and Dowhnills.

    

St. Moritz and Val d'Isere - the results

This weeked has been a disaster, and feelings are even more mixed because picks weren't actually so wrong and everything could have turned the other way in a blink.

Conceptually-lost bets were the two on Fenninger, and Pranger to podium.
All the others were good.
Deville was (and I think will be in the future) shite finishing 26th, I don't know what happened to Pranger as I haven't seen run1 (ladies' one too) but he should be better than that.
Anyway Val d'Isere is madness: lots of racers ousted, Hirscher made a mistake too and couldn't qualify...
Can't find a common thread for this slalom, sure thing is that you can't "attack" on this hill, but just be calm and clean, experience I think helped as the runner-up Hargin ,28 yo, is the youngest in the top10, and he stepped on podium with Matt and Thaler, 34 and 35 respectively.

Biggest disappointment was Gagnon. 5th after the first leg, in the second was doing equally good, but when 5-6 gates away from the finish line, she fell down wasting a good chance to step on podium. Anyway she's getting closer to it, at this kind of odds might worth keep backing her.
Also Brignone crashed, in the first leg though. Anyway she was about half a second in front of Riesch. Riesch was eventually 11th, and it sorts of confirms that GS is her worst discipline, with possibilities of opposing her as bookies could overrate her at it.
Tessa Worley wins big scoring the best times in both runs.
Lindell-Vikarby is on her level and increases her lead in GS-standing.
Maze found back a good way to ski, her movements didn't look slow as in previous races.

Sun 15/12 - St.Moritz GS Ladies, Val d'Isere SL Men

 Picks decided in today's races:

I was totally wrong abut Goergl, underrating her. She's doing great in Super-G while Suter is performing below her standards at the moment.
Weirather confirms her good shape.
Riesch goes behind Gut by just .01s... aaargh, it was a juicy price.

Right impressions about both courses: St.Moritz is average for SG, speed little prevail on tech. Val d'Isere is strange, unconventional GS, lots of DNFs etc... that Ligety has won here only once says it all.

On to next races:

Lindell-Vikarby - Fenninger was taken earlier this week, thinking the price was wrong, odds have changed now proving my thought right. Also fancying Fenninger to win, with Wairather's win in super-g, now Anna is the one without wins of the three that are dominating this season. Technically she's improved a lot and she's got the skills to do better than others in the flat sections of this slope.

I haven't liked Worley this season till today, 9th in SG. She seems to have a great feeling with St. Moritz, she's got a 1st and a 3rd place in GS here, she's got a far better starting bib than Pietilae-Holmner, 6 to 18 so I see value in that price.
Brignone is improving, she's recovering the time off for injury and little by little could go back to the top position of GS, Hoefl-Riesch has a weak point in GS perhaps her worst discipline.
Long shot picking Gagnon for the podium, the canadian girl is in great shape and scoring good placements everywhere. Got a 1st place in a Nor-Am GS with other WC-level skiers (Zettel, Brem to name few).

Few picks in men's slalom, also given the easiness they're falling on this slope.
Pranger is one of the few to have a rilevant history on the "Bellevarde": Gold medal at the World Championships in 2009, while last year was 2nd after run1 but made a little mistake and finished 6th.
Deville is on his falling phase of his career and hardly reaches the top20.

Val d'Isere and St. Moritz

World Cup back in Europe
Ladies in St.Moritz: saturday a Super-G, sunday a giant-slalom
Men in Val d'Isere: giant-slalom on saturday, slalom on sunday

Footnote of a post from last year:
"In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well steep... strange comebacks in run2"

Val d'Isere last year was thrilling. 
Local hero Pinturalt scored his first WC win in the night slalom, it was special because he won a slalom before winning in giant-slalom, his favourite discipline.
In giant-slalom Hirsher won in front of Luitz and Ligety. Scandal was Ligety not winning, the features of this slope and the course setting made everybody think they've finally found a way to stop him - he won the next GS, in Alta Badia, with one of the most terrific performances I've ever seen (you'll easily find the video on youporn or nearby, for a skiing fan there it belongs).  
Luitz was at his first WC podium - a year later the best he's placed is 9th two weeks ago in Beaver's GS - he was bib #35 (his compatriot Neureuther was bib #36 and finished 4th). Luitz was placed 25th after the first run, scored the best time in run2 to recover up to the 2nd position, Nani made another interesting recovery from 29th to 10th place.
St.Moritz lost the super-combined.
Last year Vonn won the super-G ahead of Maze, who won the giant-slalom and the combi. 
Vonn is not racing this year, Maze isn't the absolute dominator she used to be.
St. Moritz isn't particularly fashinating, it's average on many levels: lots of turns and "S", but not technical or challenging, fast but not even close to Lake Louise, some jumps but it's not Cortina. It's like a bigger version of a giant-slalom. Being the actual leader of giant-slalom the same of super-g I'm expecting the same names at the top: Gut, Riesch, Weirather, Fenninger

Picked some bets earlier, prices tempted me.

First three picks refers to saturday's SG.
It's Weirather - Fenninger again and I still see Weirather ahead.
I see value in both Suter and Riesch prices. Riesch on this course could be closer to Gut, while I had priced Suter favourite against Goergl.

Lindell-Vikarby vs Fenninger is from the giant-slalom market and I think this price is ridiculus and won't last long - Pinnacle makes Fenninger 1.7 to Vikarby 2.1.

Results of Sat 7/12 and American swing recap

Got a day short in posting and betting.
So this post will be a bit obsolete, but anyway...

Opposing the US didn't work, they actually showed signs of improvements in saturday's downhill and peaked yeasterday with Vonn finishing 5th in super-g.
The most disappointing thing of the weekend was skipping all the bets on Weirather after friday's lost ones. For the second DH there were the same odds in Weirather - Fenninger h2h market, and likely there were also for the SG.
Men's double was lost by just .02s thanks to a big run of Jansrud.

Weekend turn from profit to a 1.2 units lost and a ROI of -2.85%

----------------------------------------------------

Season finally getting on the heart: there will be races every weekend, but above all the fight for the standings is flareing up as contenders becoming more defined.

Ladies. Gut held on her WC lead on a course not suitable for her, runnind defensively in the two DHs and hit ting as soon as she could winning the SG.
Maria Riesch rose to the 2nd position, she easily dominated the DHs, but a big mistake in the SG prevented her from another solid placement. Being a top competitor also in slalom potentially she's winning big points in every event (super-combis and city-events included), she's now favourite to win the Crystal Globe.
Tied in third place Weirather and Fenninger are solid competitors, they are skiing at Gut's level and it's just a matter of time before they step on the top of the podium.
I'll limited the field of competitors to them. Maze and Shiffrin are more than 100 points behind Weirather/Fenninger, I'm about to rule them out with different reasons: Maze, as I said before, centered her summer preparation on the Olympics so she'll probably float mid-standing for another while, if form will eventually come she could have a Kostelic-like month although the lot of competitors has grown tougher in every discipline -hard task. Shiffrin runs for the win in slalom and giant-slalom, but though her regularity of results it's only two disciplines against Gut/Weirather/Fenninger's three and Riesch's four.

On men's side it's Svindal vs Hirsher again but with another character coming on the scene. Ted Ligety somehow increased the gap dividing him from the chasers in giant-slalom, and with solid super-gs and slaloms he could become an unexpected guest in the Cup fight.

Other interesting features: Bode and Vonn coming back, Janka and Jansrud as well.
Super-G surprise by Kueng (first Swiss win in centuries) and Otmar Striedinger
Italian speed team great form and GS team disaster, while France GS and speed are to be put back into perspective.

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

-------------------------------------------------

Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Fri - 06/12 - Betting Beaver Creek and Lake Louise DHs

I'm in danger to come out with few fingers burnt after today's DHs.

Luckily enough I still don't get much about mens fast disciplines, plus there's been only one training before the race.



I took this early this week, well before the starting list came out, thinking the odds were good because Franz would have got a bad bib. Actually Franz in bib #14 so a good one. Paris is still better than Franz but the difference in their level isn't as large as the spread in their odds here, a bad call, shit happens.

I went crazy with the ladies.

I believe Weirather is in top form (2nd in DH and 3rd in GS last weekend), she's already done good here in the past as well, reaching the top3 twice.

From training Hoefl-Riesch looks like the one to beat she loves the easy course (has won here in the past) but she often shows a bit of nerves when she's the favourite or she's put under pressure, plus her odds were too low; Gut in my opinion is too light for this course, while Vonn's shape is too doubtful.

Cutting off Gut, Vonn, Maze, Fenninger (for she's too light too), Cook (because what I wrote about the US team in a previous post), I found Goergl a possible name for a top3 finish, she's been under par so far but would have got the 3rd place in last SG if she wasn't disqualified for some unregularities in her skis.

On to the head to heads.

Already said enough about Weirather's form, while Fenninger usually here performs better the SG than the DH.

Goergl 1.83 against Stuhec is ridiculus to me, I won't hide that I still have to understand what Stuhec is (technical, slippery, a mix of these) anyway she's still got difficult to find the top10 and her results are a roller coaster.

Aufdenblatten (along with the Swiss team)  is in decent form she hasn't got a good relation with this course though while Merighetti finishe inside the top10 several times. The main reason behind this pick though is that Aufdenblatten is bib#1 so starting with no infos about the course.

Picked Marchand-Arvier over Fischbacher for the same reason of above, Fischbacher in #3, plus the high odds. And also because this course better suite to MMA, with many long flat section.

The tremble has to be staked with ease although made by large favourited: Sejersted did good in training, while Goggia is maybe too light for this course; Riesch is the favourite for the final win, Maze is in clear difficulties and this is not her kind of course; both Fanchini and Suter are in great form, but Suter is more a SGer than a DHer, she prefers technical courses to flat ones.

Alpine skiing - quick recap after season opening and 1/2 American swing - part 2 mens

In men's tour music didn't change from last year: Ligety still winning with margin on chasers in GS, same for Hirscher in SL, Svindal won in SG, and Paris the DH.

Overall

The fight for the Globe once again looks limited to Svindall, king of the fast disciplines, and Hirscher, king of the tech, with the austrian again andvantaged by the number of events (9 slaloms and downhills, 8 giant-slaloms, and only 6 super-gs, + 2 super-combi and a city-event).

Ligety should find more solidy in either slalom or super-g, or maybe he just should use better super-combies as he's one of the most completes and yet he scored 0 points in kombies lat year.

Pinturault potentially has the podium in his legs in slalom, but he lacks of consistency. Frequency of results there could turn him into a new Hirscher.

Kostelic looks far behind these. He is still fighting for top position in slalom, but the field there is wide and the points he is going to lose are more of those he is going to win there. Super-G and downhill hardly are taking him big points, above all compared to the risks he is taking competiting in those after all his knee surgery he underwent.

Comebacks: Miller, Lizeroux, Feuz 

Some big names came back this year. Honestly I can't see they win or find placements at the very top of the standing (at least not in the short period) but anyway for me it was a great pleasure to have them back as they all at some point in the past have represented the best of their specific discipline, or of skis in general - guess who am I talking about?.

Age isn't on Miller and Lizeroux's side while Feuz once he'll have scratch off the rust should become relevant again.

Up-and-comers 

Vinking Henrik Kristoffersen, 19 yo,  surely deserve the first mention. He was the surprise of Levi reaching his first WC podium behind Hirsher and Matt. Away from the major tour, he's backing that astonishing results with other good placements in European Cup and leading the overall standing.

Compatriot Sebastian-Foss Solevaag, older than Kristoffersen but with less WC starts, was another surprising youngster. 9th place in Levi where he was bib #55, and doing good in EC as well: 3rd and 2nd place in two slaloms.

Harder to find top-performing youngster in the fast disciplines, where maturity seems to arrive later.

Austrian Matthias Mayer grabbed 2nd place in SG and 13th in DH in Lake Louise, though he already is full-time part of the OSV from few season.

Freasher names are France's Brice Roger and Austria's Otmar Striedinger who got two top 20 placements in Lake Louise.

 

Alpine skiing - quick recap after season opening and 1/2 American swing - part 1 ladies

Back blogging; I have few thoughts to write down about what's happening on the World Cup. A decent amount of races already completed some trending becoming evident.

Maze doesn't amaze anymore

Unrecognisable in giant-slalom and in super-g where she showed some lethargic movements, a little sparkle came with a 3rd place in Levi's slalom.

She's collected just 130 points and is 7th placed in the Cup standing.

My humble opinion is: she's aiming the Olympics, her form will come later this season.

This and Vonn still out make the fight for the Crystal Globe interesting. Although some young guns are make it interesting anyway.

Young guns: Gut, Shiffrin, Weirather

The hot names of the moment.

Gut is finally proving her talent. Three wins on the first three races and a solid lead in the Overall Standing, then out during the first run of the GS... she's still kind of unbeaten so far.
Shiffrin won the opening slalom starting the new season from where she left, but as proof of her growing up there's her first GS podium. In very short she'll rule both technical disciplines -Hirsher teaches that they're enough to win the Globe, do your math.
Weirather more than a Tina 2 looks like Gut's double, they trains together indeed. Technically speaking Tina is less aggressive on turns than Gut but has better flat sections. 3rd place in Beaver's GS was her first podium in that discipline, made even greater by the fact she was bib #29, so she's lot to work on her Starting List.

Team talk: US, Norway.

The aspect that probably most intrigues me of this sport it's the [with Gandalf voice - it sounds a bit philosophical and I had a teacher who... long story, nevermind] duality Team-Athlete: it's true that you're on your own out on the slope, but that is just a drop in the sea of training either on slopes and in gyms (plus other pre-season exercises like running and cycling), all shared with teammates. So when you leave the starting gate you put on course your individual value, your liking or disliking the slope, the course setting, other mental factors and so on, but beside this there's a big slice of the pie made by training, which is the same for you and your teammates. It's not uncommon seeing few flags of the same nation gathering at some point of the final standing of a race.
For example tennis is individual, and training is individual too. Pro-tennis players have their own staff and there aren't groups of players with similar trends. Yet Errani and Vinci since they started working together showed "similar" progress and reached their career best rank almost at the same time.
All this to say that I love talk teams.

US have to thank Shiffrin, who all alone saved the USskiteam on home soil from what looked like a Little Bighorn. Although she has to be considered more by herself than as part of a team -sorry, Resi!-, where US really team-up is in fast disciplines: Vonn and Mancuso are top racers while Smith, Ross and Cook are solid teammate worth of top10 placements. The best this bunch has done is Cook's 19th place in DH.

The most probable explanation to this is their preparation that has to be centered on the Olympics, this would be typical of the US above all of Mancuso: she better performs on biggest stages like Olympics or World Champs than on tours stages - she's won more Olympics medal than Vonn, to say.

Opposite form is showed by the Norway team, or Vikings as they're nicknamed. Actually they're not at the very top but this is a young team and after few years passed fighting for a top30 placement now they're finding the top10 with some continuity.
Ragnhild Mowinckel was the one showing the greater improvement, previous to her 8th place in Beaver's GS she scored great results in some "warm-up" events held in Copper Mountain. Almost all those events were won by Lotte Sejersted, on the World Cup satges she probably was the most disappointing though, with only a 10th place in Super-G.
The elder Loeseth, Nina, was 12th in Beaver's GS backing her 7th place achieved in Levi. She's recorded a 1st and a 3rd place in two Nor-Am GS kept this week.
The younger Loeseth, Mona, remained in the old continent competiting in European Cup record a win and a 4th place in GS and a win and a 2nd place in SL.

Other team worth mentioning are Swiss (+ Weirather), with solid team either in fast and tech disciplines, and Canada.

Thumb up for the new Raptor course 

Alpine skiing - other results from La Parva

South American Cup went on in La Parva (Chile) with a Super-G and a Super-Combined (by adding a slalom run to the SG time) for both men and women.

Men's Super-G

Another German youngster on the top of the podium but surprisingly this time is not Ferstl, who has been detronized by fellow countryman Klaus Brandner -a regular in European Cup though with no top10 placement, and one WC appearence (59th in Garmisch last season).

Frenchman Theaux completes the podium leading the French troupe which has placed many skiers (including few new names) here and there within the top20. 

Slovenian Sporn is 10th while Perko 12th.

Argentinian Cristian Javier Simari Birkner 16th is the first South American, but it's not good news as Ferstl overcame him in the SAC standing, and he might lose his first SAC overall since 2000.

Men's Super-Combined

Super-Combined has always been a bit in the limbo, on the verge of cancellation, but there are few specialists of this discipline, Mermillod-Blondin, winner here, is one of those - he had few podiums also in WC, including Kitzbuehel this year. Another specialist is Zrncic-Dim who was 3rd.

Ferstl held strong his 2nd position, there weren't previuos relevant results neither in slalom or super-combined from him.

4th the young Frenchman Valentin Giraud Moine, who was 14th after the SG; followed by Cristian Simari Birkner, but as said wasn't enough to seize Ferstl and now the Cup is in danger.

Other nice comebacks from the British duo Crawford-Baldwin, 20th and 21th in the order after SG and American Roberts, a slalom specialist from US university circuit, who recorded the best time of the run and raised to 10th place from 27th.

Women's Super-G

Tina Weirather geared up to win the Super-G, preceeding Fabienne Suter and Lara Gut in a podium not so different from those of the World Cup.
Then there's a long plot of Swiss skiers broken by a girl from a B French team, followed by Ilka Stuhec who has showed consistency here in SAC.

Women's Super-Combined

Weirather and Suter manteined the placements they achieved with the SG while Kaufmann-Abderhalden stepped on podium also thank to another slalom letdown from Gut. She couldn't be defined as specialist of the Super-Combined but she is better in slalom than the average downhiller.

Good runs for Stuhec, Strachova -formerly Zahrobska- world class slalomist, and young Russian Yakovishina consistently in the top 10 here in Chile.   

I'll leave with few videos:

As I mentioned it before: Lara Gut crush in super-combi at the World Championships in Garmish.

I'm sorry but I can't help but think the crush is funny.

Vail-Beaver Creek 2015 are taking shape, and women's speed track has just been named Raptor (because 'murica). Link

I have a special guest who tested the track.

Alpine Skiing - some results from La Parva (Chile)

In La Parva took place some speed events valid for the South American Cup, but which involved some names of relevance also for the World Cup.

Men's downhill 1

Josef Ferstl finished in the top 30 only twice in WC, 9th in Garmisch, 30th in Kvitfjell. He has some good placements, with some wins and podiums in European Cup though, and also was 3rd in DH standind in 2012.

Brice Roger, scored several top 30 placements last season in WC and also was 15th at the Championships in Schladming. A good up and comers

Not much to say about Russian Alexander Glebov, he can easily dominate National Champs but no important results on main tour.

Just down the podium Clarey leads the group of France's veteran which includes Fayed, and out of the top10 Bertrand, Theaux, W-Champs DH bronze Poisson, Mermillod-Blondin and W-Champs SG silver De Tessieres.

Other interesting names: UK's hope Crawford and Baldwin, who's found several top10 finish here in Chile; Slovenia's Perko and Sporn

Men's Downhill 2

Josef Ferstl doubled the succes, followed by his countryman Andreas Strodl who hasn't competed since 2011.

France scored a good team-result: Theaux was 3rd, Clarey 5th, Bertrand just behind, while Fayed, Poisson, Mermillod-Blondin and De Tessieres ended inside the top 20. Roger didn't race.

Good 4th place for combined specialist Zrncic-Dim and the two Britons both in the top 10

Women's Downhill 1

Swiss team makes big thing from the start placing all the atlethes in the top 10.

4th placed Joana Haehlen is the only new name, she has never raced

in WC, some good placements in European Cup and couple of medals at the Junior Champs.

Good 3rd place for Slovenian Stuhec, and two Russian novice Yakovishina 10th followed by her countrywoman Bedareva, both class '92.

All Ferk and Brodnik from Slovenia and Weirather from Liechtenstein finished inside the top 20.

Women's Downhill 2

Switzerland still dominating. Gut didn't take part as well as Weirather.

Another top 10 finish for Stuhec and Yakovishina while Bedareva was 11th again. 

Gisin showed great appreciation for La Parva on her blog, even though internet and news have some difficulties to make their way up there.

.

Alpine skiing - get ready for the White Circus

It may look like I've abandoned the blog, and in fact I have... but the White Circus silently goes on, mostly Down-under, and our heroes are getting ready to entertain us on the bigger stages, lets see how.

Ivica Kostelic at the trapeze

Maroney may be not impressed by Kostelic's gymnastic skills but she'll be impressed at his collection of knee surgery that has now reached and gone beyond the double figure. In Italy there's the saying "hundred of these days" to wish something to be long lasting, I'm not sure this is the right occasion to say it.

Anna Fenninger the Quick-change artist

Sadly she forgot how to put on her boots and needed help

The aMAZEing Tina the illusionist

Last season she flew on her skiis, for the next season she'll push it a step further.

The Italian team in the cage with lions and tigers

Well, not really a scary wild beast... it was Alonso, a fox.

Little Miss Sunshine (aka Mikaela Shiffrin) applied as comician

Week 21 - Brussels and Strasbourg - friday

Outright winner: Stephens 1 unit @17 Lost -1
This is the only thing to say about yesterday: Stephens lost to Peng, and I didn't cover that so another point lost.
I wasn't around for other in-play trades yesterday.

I find today's match interesting, although at first I can't say what to expect.
Motivations should be high at this point of the week, so I believe all the contendants will fight hard.

Best price for me is Hampton's one.
I think there's value over 3.0 for the American, she's already pushed Vinci into a three setter on clay in their previous meeting during a Fed up tie.
Hampton can play at higher pace than Vinci, although she's suffer on slices.

I also like odds on Lepchenko.
Even though Kanepi is the best claycourter here, Lepchenko isn't this bad.
Kanepi won their last meeting (the only one between these two), Seoul, hardcourt, in September.
This also was last time Kanepi met a leftie and this could require a little bit to get used to different angles and all...
To little correct myself I'll add that I remembered to be Kanepi more powerful, while after watching her match against Cibulkova I'd say she's lost a bit of that power beside losing weight, and her style a power-with-margin kind of play could leave Lepchenko room to hit weird angles with her forehand, and on that cross Kanepi should have the greater troubles.

Peng is pushing hard from the baseline and this should create some problem to 'dropshot-queen' Oprandi.
I haven't seen Peng this week but I remember she was outplaying Errani in baseline rallies during the doubles final of Rome.
I'm not sure about her service game though, and also how she'll handle dropshots as she looks a bit lost  when forced to play away from the baseline.

Hradecka v Larsson could be either a disaster or a nice drama.
Hradecka was a mess earlier this season and had to play some ITFs to find her shape.
She's more solid and has better serve. Odds are short on her fot me, though.

Pennetta shouldn't have problems facing Doi, although the Italian hasn't played so many back to back matches in a long while.

Bouchard is playing really well, she can cause troubles to Cornet.

Week 21 - Brussels and Strasbourg - thursday

Tipical of me: after a good period (a short one in this case, just two days) I destroy everything I've built up.
So yesterday I've lost all the profits from Monday and Tuesday plus something.
And I wasn't even chasing or I've violated any of my self-imposed rule. I was just crap in every single match, indipendently from the match I've traded before.

Even worse I actually wrote what I was about to do and see in yesterday's post, but instead of acting like it was written in the screenplay I went for improvisation.

Little to say about Putintseva v Van Uytvanck match. The two were of different leagues.
Though after a couple of tight games and some shenanigans from Putintseva -she asked the umpire if it wasn't too cold to play- I believed she might be tanking as many are in this pre-Slam week. She wasn't.
Usual mistake from me: I didn't take the loss, and stayed with a bigger red. I keep doing it and it's very poor. I also lack of killer instict as Putintseva also went up to over 1.7.

Then there was Kanepi v Cibulkova, or better it was in the same time of the aforementioned match but that one was early locked. Kanepi suddenly went down to shite odds and there was little to do about that. I managed some small profits anyway. As the second set went further I believed Cibulkova was actually trying to win it, and thought I took a great price backing her at 3.3 (she had also better odds, but again I lacked of killer instict), so from an all-green, changes but still green, I found myself with a red on Kanepi who eventually won the tie-break of the second set and so the match.

Following this came Bouchard v Giorgi. Giorgi didn't solve her problems on the service, although percentage and double faults were better than in her previous match. Bouchard smartly changed her game starting to play Giorgi's one: tactic-less and random shot selection; because giving pace and letting the rallies go longer, and also playing rallies as a normal tennis player does, made the points leaning toward Giorgi. I sensed this tactical adjustament in Bouchard's game and so I thought also Giorgi would have sensed it.
And again I kept the red. I stayed with my she-still-have-time-to-level-it-up kind of thought.
Giorgi continued to play her game made of lookalike first and second serve and errors caused by her attemps to hit winners from every position and in any condition, looks like she hasn't got provisional shots.

With my surprise I also found loss on Arvidsson (v Peng), plus some pocket changes on Goerges v Vandeweghe: a small lay of Goerges believing her to be the kind of girl who'd rather tank and go shopping in Paris, shame she did so in later in the same day.

On other happier news Stephens survived to one and half match yesterday and into quarterfinals. Peng has the kind of game that suit her. I'd consider about backing Peng to little covers the liabilities, just in case...

No daily plan, which I eventually don't follow, today (only morning).

Week 21 - Brussels and Strasbourg - Wednesday

Oops!... I'm already losing grip. Actually yesterday I wrote a short post on Monday's trades and a short preview of what I expected from Cetkovska at her come back on court.

Recap of previous days

Monday:

Daniels v Domachowska. A terrible match. Daniels is very poor apart from her serve, no wonder her best career result is a final in a 10k. Domachowska won with experience, I could have made more profits Laying her after she won the first set (around 1.15) but unexpectedly she walked about the second set. The match was suspended by the rain with Domachowska serving 40-30, 3-2 up, greened-up leaving more green on Daniels expecting a sudden counter break. The match resumed indoor a without livescore so that green was left there.

Cepelova v Tsurenko. This was a great match, really entertaining. I liked Cepelova, she is a bit of all-around player, able to hit from every position, from both side, she also plays many slices. Weak point are volleys, which she plays drived. And as usual in WTA, she failed to serve the match out when 5-4 in the third. Again I missed a cheap lay there (ca. 1.22), I admit I wasn't expecting a break back as she also has a good serve. The many up and downs of the match granted me a good profit even so, though. 

Only red was Govortsova v Rus. Don't why I entered this one. They already were in the second set - I like to watch matches from the beginning - and Rus was leading after Govortsova won the first set. Olga took an MTO, though, and Rus meltdown. I left my red on Rus, as incredulous as Rus at how easily on could meltdown.

Tuesday:

Larsson v Cetkovska. Petra was very rusty in the first set, nothing was working, serve above all. In the second she found more confidence in her best stroke, the forehand, and was outplaying Larsson. She run out of petrol halfway through the deciding set, managed two tough holds to make it 2-2 and then 3-3 but Jola's shape had the better of Petra. Happy for the profit, happier for Petra, hope to see another big run from her at Wimbledon.

Bartoli v Giorgi. Given the tank was sensible from Bartoli, I had a smaller profit than I could afford. That's because I don't like this kind of match and also because Giorgi' serve -or lack of- would embarrass me if I was Bartoli. 

Hantuchova v Torro-Flor. Small profit from this one because I entered while second set was already undergoing and also because I believed Hantuchova was better than her opponent in tie-breaker  

Today

Lots of matches in Brussels from 10am as the whole day of yesterday went lost, while Strasbourg starts at 11am.

I think I'll start with Kanepi v Cibulkova and this probably will be the only match for me today as I'm off for the afternoon..

Current odds are quite crap. 

I believe Kanepi is better than Cibulkova on clay, she also leads the h2hs 2-1 but none was played on clay, but below 1.8 I won't back her.

The trend of the match should be clear from the beginning: Kanepi's power of groundstrokes against Cibulkova's counterpounching. 

Kanepi also has more points to defend, she made semifinal last year, while Cibulkova has quarterfinal.

With Roland Garros coming soon I think Cibulkova won't be too interested in those points, a signal of this lack of interest should be unforced errors and attemps to play shorter rallies, two things that don't belong to her usual game.

Another match of interest could be Giorgi v Bouchard.

Again I think odds on the favourite are a bit short. 

I don't think Bouchard is this better than Giorgi. 

If Giorgi has solved her problems with service percentage (probably not because she's been always like this)  there could be a match and on the rally I'd make Giorgi slightly better.

Also beating a big name has the effect to reduce the odds the next round.

Anyway there are no h2h, strange because despite the Italian flag next to her name Giorgi plays almost exclusively in the U.S., so it's hard to foresee how the match could be.

My outright selection, Stephens, survived up to the third day, sad thing she's still got to complete her first match.

Week 21 - WTA Brussels and Strasbourg

I'll try blogging again.
Activities with a better social acceptance on this side of the screen caught on me, leaving only the morning and a little window in late afternoon to watch tennis and even trade.
I usually need my time prepping matches and daily schedule when I'm trading, so I left it for a while, beside blogging.

Also bigger tournament, and ATP-WTA combined ones above all, aren't much in my liking; I feel more confortable with minor ones.

WTA is hitting the heart of Europe placing two tournaments in the centres of European political power.

WTA Premier, Brussels Open
Main Draw

Caroline Wozniacki was wild-carded to top seed the event. Her recent form is much questionable: she lost three first round on red clay, only managing a win over Soler-Espinosa on the green clay of Charleston.
Yet Goerges and Oprandi at quartefinals height are big challenger for her.
In the top half I fancy Sloane Sthephens. The young American is a great claycourter for the US standards, she had a good clay season also last year when she reached the semifinal in Strasbourg losing to title-winner Schiavone, and then the second week of Roland Garros.
Stephens is facing Pironkova in the opening match, there shouldn't be an upset given Pironkova is a four weeks player (the four weeks of grass season), and then other non clay specialists as Rybarikova. Rus is the only claycourter in this section Stephens' strokes have a different pace.

In the bottom half there's Roberta Vinci whose climb to the top ten halted at her carrer high of 12th. She has no points to defend here and at the French Open, so two decent runs could be enough; I still think clay isn't her best surface. Also her section isn't a light one, including home players Flipkens [5], Wickmayer and WC Van Uytvanck; worst match-up for the Italian, though, are power players like Hampton (who already scared Vinci in Fed Cup, on clay) and Keys.
No.3 of the seeding Cibulkova probably drew the worst first round, Kaia Kanepi. Cibulkova isn't at her best on clay, where the ball loses pace after the bounce and lessen the effects of her counterpounching.
For the same reason Kanepi is at her best on clay where she can find the best timing to hit the ball with her long swings.
Not an easy first round also for no.7 Lepchenko against Jovanovski. Also Lepchenko benefits of slower surfaces which give her "time to think" as Paire would say, and delivers at odd angles with her leftie forehand. Jovanovski, though, has quarterfinal to defend here.
Also in this section Stefanie Voegele, this girl impressed me in Charleston where she caused the upsed of Suarez-Navarro, Goerges and Wozniacki eventually losing to Jankovic in the semi after three tight sets. Voegele hits the ball very hard and could give hard time to anyone in her section.

Outright winner: Stephens 1 unit @17

WTA International, Internationaux de Strasbourg

Lower category and less interesting match-ups in Alsace.
This region was highly disputed between France and Germany and -I may be wrong on this point- local pride is much strong and has anti-France tendencies.
Top seeded Bartoli French, from Corsica usually isn't crowd favourite.
The fourhanded French woman although not a great claycourter has some good results here (semifinal in 2007, runner-up to Petkovic in 2011), she also records a semifinal at the French Open.
Her section is an easy one and also the other seeded player, no.5 Niculescu, should create major problem for world number fourteen.
Projections are for an all-French semifinal against seeding no.3 Alize Cornet, a steady presence in Strasbourg; Cornet is 2012 runner-up to Schiavone.
Bartoli and Cornet have never met before, I admit I'd like to see this semifinal, it should be quite a drama.

Bottom half isn't more interesting.
Seeded players Paszek [2], Hsieh [4], McHale [6] and Hantuchova [8] aren't claycourter although all of them might be chasing points in minor events like this.
More interests raise physical condition of Muguruza, who seems to undergo surgery after Wimbledon, and Cetkovska at her first match since December.

Montecarlo, Fed Cup - weekend

Good profit from Tsonga - Wawrinka.
Tsonga was very erratic with his forehand during the first set while on the other hand Wawrinka was playing really well, looking much more solid on the baseline.
Price went down to 1.25 after Stan took the first set, but as it usually happens when Stan is on court, the match wasn't over.
Few games later the light went off, Stan's service got broken in the only break point conceded and Tsonga cruised to tie the match.
That was enough and apart from some minor trades after market's overreaction on some points I stayed with the all green built up to then.
I don't know what happened in the deciding set.

I think I'm done with Montecarlo.
This weekend there are the Fed Cup's semis.
Italy - Czech Rep. sounds a locked one. Italy has better singles and doubles, above all on this surface (clay). The Czechs usually put that little extra in Fed Cup rubbers but their shape looks awful and their best claycourter, Zakopalova, was even knocked out by allergy.

Much more interesting is Russia - Slovakia.
Also this tie is on clay court and I think this choice mixes things up rather than favoring Russia (home team).
Kirilenko little plays on it (she practices a lot in Spain), but it's not her favourite surface and things get even worse for Pavlyuchenkova.

I don't have a schedule for this weekend though, and a break should't be a bad move.

Montecarlo - QF - friday

Fognini ousted Berdych, and from a well paid price and I was on him, also let it go covering the red but not equalizing the greens. A pretty profitable one.
I'm not shocked by the other upsets: Murray by Wawrinka and Del Potro by Nieminen (I said Nieminen   was great against Raonic, and I read his defence worked also against the Argentinian).

Like yestarday, I'm going to be here only for the first match, and part of the second if the first is quick enough. Oh, no! Second match is Dimitrov - Nadal, I'd rather skip it.

Anyway I couldn't ask for a better match at 10:30 than Wawrinka - Tsonga.
Wawrinka slight favourite (1.9 to 2.1), as he beated Murray and also because is the better claycourter.
With those premises I would have expected odds to be much shorter on him so it little puzzles me at the moment.
The match could be a dramatic one, though, with momentum swinging from side to side and both suffering of sudden blackouts.
As a proof of this: all their previous meeting went up to the deciding set, Tsonga leads 2-1 and they are 1-1 on clay, both match on clay took place at the French Open.
Strange thing is that they've only met in France (the non-clay match was in Metz, indoor; actually they also record an exhibition match, in Paris, on clay, and Tsonga won in straight) with crowd supporting Tsonga, but thing is going to happen again today and if Stan is the one looking in better shape and confidence, Tsonga will have an entire stadium cheering him, and he loves playing for the crowd.

Montecarlo - round of 16 - thursday

Things worked for the most part of the day, yesterday. But I can't be happy.
Again, just one trade going wrong and the day was nearly fucked up.

The one going wrong was Almagro - Melzer, and that was stupid as I thought Almagro price was too short. And in fact I was on Melzer. But then Almagro didn't look so tired, and he played a good opening game of second set, and so I thought Melzer was done (his game was very risky, many serve and volleys...), I backed Almagro when an all green was possible as well.... later Melzer took the break and instead of reducing the loss, as usual, I took more of it. Melzer won and all the profits from the morning were almost erased.
Before this moment of madness I:

• had an all green in Berdych - Granollers, Berdych had a slow start but took the set, after Granollers also failed to serve the set out. 
• had a nice profit from Nieminen - Raonic. Watching this match wasn't planned but due to the all green in Berdych/Granollers I switched on this just at the beginning of the third set. Nieminen was playing really well his movements and speed were outstanding and he was returning almost everything, even though it's not easy to break Raonic serve. The Finnish won in the tiebreak.
• Backed Fognini but didn't watch the match, so the bet was left running.

Gulbis/Monaco luckily was a dramatic match and I made a good profit of it.

Today only morning matches for me, so one/one and half trade.

I find both Berdych/Fognini and Tsonga/Melzer interesting.

The first one possibly will have the same development of yesterday; Berdych having a slow start; moreover Fognini seems in a decent shape and on clay can be a tough one for Berdych.

Both Melzer and Tsonga play aggressive tennis, and anything can happen. Clay is the worst surface for the frenchmen and 1.22 is a bit short.

Montecarlo - round 2 - wednesday

I didn't post in last few days.
The losing streak hasn't stopped yet, though.

So I've halved my stakes and I'll go on like this until the problem is fixed.

The faults have been always the same: entering market I shouldn't (because aren't profitable, or because it is not the right time, yesterday I was just minutes late to Verdasco's 1st set choke, I backed him in the second but he had a meltdown), or inability to accept a loss and reduce it, or even worse enlarge it.

Anyway, today I'm going to be here the whole day and here's my plan, to have things clear:
of the 10:30 matches I'll watch Berdych v Granollers,  the Czech struggles in early morning (that's what the legend says), his price is already higher than the 1.12 of my early lay.
I don't think Raonic is going to have many problems against Nieminen

Then I'll watch Ramos v Fognini. Fognini's price of 1.9 seems a bit high to me, unfortunately he is crazy and anything can happen there.

Sad Wawrinka v Montanes hasn't the coverage, Stan always plays dramatic matches.

Both Melzer and Almagro are capale of anything above all in terrible ways, Almagro also had a full week in Huston, his price worth a lay to me.

Gulbis - Monaco to close the day. I can't decide what to do pre-match. Gulbis looks in a good period while Monaco in an awful one. Still Gulbis played Isner in the first round: Huston final + transatlantic flight + Isner's worst surface, made it all leat toward Gulbis, it was no surprise to me.

Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - Friday

Bad, bad, bad day yesterday... so bad I'm happy to take a break today (forced by things, not of my own free will).

Actually yesterday wasn't that bad, at least I obeyed to my self-imposed limit of liabilities per match.

It was bad because I'd have close the day with a decent profit after few matches, but than made a stupid thing and passed the rest of the day chasing, failing in it and making the loss worse.

Good start of the day with Vinci v Bertens, as expected Bertens would have been a tough opponent and Vinci won only thank to tactics, otherwise Bertens would have prevailed in most of the baseline rallies.

Again... I'm convinced that Vinci is not a claycourter, opponents with less evident weak points (yesterday it was Bertens' BH on Vinci's slice BH, crosscourt) and ability to handle her variations of rhythm can easily beat her. Most of the girl can create more pace from baseline, and are in better shape than her.

Than I got a loss in Carreno-Busta v Anderson.

There's never been a match here, and I only watched few games at the beginning.

The Spaniard served first, I expected him to hold, and following this a huge movement in the odds, thing that happened, but I lacked of firmness ("I'll wait for the next hold to lay"). Anderson took the break in the third game, I took the loss.

Begu v Cadantu was at the same time of Carreno-Busta v Anderson, but I early switched to the Romanian derby as it was clear the men weren't playing the same sport.

Also here I expected many shifts of momentum, some WTA drama, and I'd say the match was sort of epic.

Begu was almost dominant from baseline, while Cadantu was running back and forth and eventually winning the point on an unforced error from Begu.

Begu took the first, then she had a blackout in the second and lost it 6-3, she was leading 3-1.

At this point I could have gone with a good all green but I chose to be creative and have a huge green on Begu and a small green on Cadantu. Begu went 4-1 up, I thought it was done. But Cadantu came back and Begu and I stood there watching her doing so unable to stop it (I was like: "Just one game... Begu goes 5 games to something and Cadantu will go mad"). Begu lost 6-4 the deciding.

At this point my day was good enough, and I could have stayed away of Volandri - Klizan and just enjoy the match.

I didn't.

After the first set Klizan went down to 1.22, I laid that price, as Volandri was fighting hard. 

In a short time I was all green. That would have made a great day.

But then I took a step further and messed everything up. As always in Volandri's matches there were many chances to recover.

And in the end as in Begu's match I watched Klizan comeback in the tie-break and I didn't do anything, 

Closed with a red, that took my P&L just little under the breakeven point.

And I went like: "That's very easy to recover, let's just end this day with a balanced P&L, or even a a small green, if things go the right way".

Laid Haase. He took an early break and was clearly dominating. Shortened the red (enlarging the daily red) and switched to Kvitova v Minella, that was already under way and Minella was already a break up and best prices had gone. I laid Kvitova anyway, she came back and won the first set, and cruised the second for the match

Nothing live today, shame because I could watch Casablanca on tv, better than crap streaming.

I'd fancy Pliskova to beat Vinci, but Vinci's price is already drifting.

Camerin to beat Beck. Camerin made a huge effort against Zakopalova and Beck should be easier. The young German also has a weak serve.

Peer to beat Cadantu, as the Rumanian should be tired after yesterday's match, while Peer had a comfortable round against Craybas.

Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - thursday

Yesterday could have been a fabulous, shiny day, but poor selections and lack of focus in the only trade I was able to do covered it in red.

Thinking other seeded players would be ousted I laid Kvitova and Vinci, match I couldn't monitor, and moreover I "know" Vinci doesn't tank. Small liabilities in both, but still...
Both Kvitova and Vinci won.

The upsets were Lisicki v Cadantu (actually I picked this two days ago, but forgot), and Zakopalova v Camerin.
I was live trading that Zakopalova - Camerin. It was the kind of match I like with momentum going from side to side, and lots of service broken (19 breaks in 30 games played). The major difficult was understanding who held the momentum, since body language from both suggested otherwise.
No big disaster from me, just I backed Zakopalova, above the even (around 2.20), when she was a break down in the third set, Camerin held till the end.

All matches in both Casablanca and Katowice are televised today.
I'll start with Bertens Vinci, still think Vinci won't tank but Bertens could be an hard task.
Then I'm undecided, Cadantu - Begu or Carreno-Busta - Anderson.
I expect a classic WTA drama in the Romanian derby, but I also wonder what Anderson is doing in the dirt, and Carreno-Busta could be an hard matchup in any case.

I don't know if I'll trade it (discipline suggests me to stay awayfrom it, for different reasons) but surely I'm going to watch Volandri - Klizan and cheering Volandri.

WTA and ATP

With all the possible upsets and other three sets matches, yesterday, I went for the dumbest pick, Zaniewska +6, she lost 6-1 6-1.

Other ideas were Kamke, who beated in straight Melzer; Gimeno-Traver, at the absurd prices of 3.30/3.50 against compatriot Garcia-Lopez; or young Carreno-Busta(who won 38 consecutive matches, 39 with yesterday's one) against Casablanca's title defender Andujar but in poor form.

Then also ladies brought great battles: both  Begu - Johansson and Peer - Pironkova needed the deciding set, sad I wasn't there for trading.

I won't try anything prematch today I'd rather watch matches as today I can, even though I'd pick Beck against Dominguez-Lino, and lay all the tiny-odds favourites seen the mass slaughter of seeded players in Katowice.

Katowice WTA - Casablanca ATP

Red clay season finally in Europe.

Better time zone, live coverage still poor, but I can't complain after what happened in the so called fifth Slam, and also in the sixth.

As I'm writing Cornet is tanking against a local girl, I guess Katowice is not an happy place in this time of the year, still cold and snowing there.

I would have found interesting to watch matches like Pironkova - Peer or Begu - Johansson (and I hate Johansson, I find her really awful as player, she's pretty much like hit and miss, tons of unforced errors, etc...)

Pick:

K. Kanepi - S. Zaniewska pick S. Zaniewska +6 games 2 unit @1.99 Lost -2

First match with TV coverage.

Kanepi is at her first match of the season could be a bit rusty.

My only pick for today, and also no live trading.

I only regret missing Mathieu-Volandri in Casablanca, should be a great fight as Volandri lost many points for the final in Sao Paulo ATP250, and placements in another couple of challenger and now is back at the 110 place of the ranking and must fight hard to get the main draw of the French Open.

Davis Cup and WTA

Perhaps my best day ever of trading yesterday, if not for the gain at least because I liked what I was doing and I had a neat feeling of what was happening in those matches.

Started the day with Kukushkin - Hajek.
Kukushkin had a break point (that remained the only one in the match for Kukushkin) early in the first set, Hajek saved it but odds flipped over and Hajek went at 2.1.
But then Hajek took the lead and was in commanding position in every rally: his price and what was going on didn't match. I backed him.
Hajek won the first set and the second, at this point I removed the liabilities, just in case...
Anything happened and Hajek scored the first point for the Czechs.
I'm happy that I let it run, it's kind of a first for me, usually I green up and go off, this time I stayed there and decided that Hajek wasn't about to choke.

Golubev - Rosol was different.
Rosol is still bearing the title of Nadal-killer although he hasn't done anything so good since then, he opened at 1.6.
Golubev, though, was unbeaten in Davis Cup when playing in Astana.
Golubev's first set was impressive, he was playing terrifically, but great help came from Rosol poor receive (4/24 receiving points won) and unforced errors: many aggressive forehands went long.
Backed Golubev and closed the trade as he won the set.
Second set showed that Golubev made a great effort to win the first set, and he wasn't able to keep it up anymore, this united to the fact that Rosol went up to 3 made me back Rosol.
The set stayed on serve until Golubev went to serve down 5-4, and his tension was palpable. He was broken and Rosol tied it 1-set-all.
Into third set Golubev gave no sign of a recovery, and I let my trade run.
Rosol won the set and went down to 1.1.
Here was my only fault of the day as I sensed the match wasn't done.
I could have greened up, but instead I only took off the liabilities.
Golubev had a pride impulse, and although his game was not as bright as in the first set he fought more and also got a break of advantage.
Here I started to frenzy and felt like I was losing something and rushed trying to "recover the green I'd had, if I...".
Smarter move was laying Golubev at 1.09 serving for the set on the set winner market, again tension caught him, and he was broken. I rarely play something other than the match winner, and I'm very happy with this from me.
Rosol raised at 6-5* and this time I went for equal green on both set and match market.
Rosol won the set, he hasn't been so good though, and he doesn't even shows that sparkle that some players have when playing Davis Cup.

This morning I got into a rerun Vogele - Wozniacki: Woz is still the same (I'd say hopeless), but Vogele is a good player, she hits hard the ball from both side, even though I think she prefers her backhand as sometimes she turns around to hit with it.

Nothing for this afternoon: day of doubles for the Davis Cup, while matches start later in Charleston.

Next week it's going to be an intense one with the red clay season beginning and moving toward Europe for both men, in Casablanca, and the newborn Katowice for the ladies.