Weekend in review - Meribel and Garmisch

I wasn't really in the mood of post picks (picked something but with very little stakes) and analysis and all.

Also trying to be a little more disciplined and so I waited these races to see if the Championships changed something... and something strange but not so unexpected happened.
Leitmotiv of this weekend is the "first time": first career win for Ruiz-Castillo with her surpirsing run in Meribel's dowhill, she was bib #28 so it was one of that situation where podium and photo's are to be redone; first Giant-Slalom win for Pinturault, who already won a Slalom and Super-Combined and a City Event, but until yesterday he still missing a victory in his favourite discipline; and the there's the first World Cup for Maze and Slovenia.

What mostly intrigued me, though, was the second run of the Giant-Slalom where Neureuther wasted a great opportunity in front of his home crowd, he is from Partenkirchen.
Felix was leader at the end of the first run, with an impressive performance, coming into leader's corner with an high bib, #14, while the placement were mostly decided by the starting order: top 3 until Neureuther's run were bibs no. 2 , 1 , 3.

I'll start stating the obvious: Felix is a great champion, he is experienced enough (29 years old), he's always "up there" in top positions...

Although his experience and years of top placements it occurred to me that he hasn't often found himself as last man standing at the starting gate of a second run. He rarely was leader after first run.

And the pressure and tension to handle in that case is something hard to get used to. It really needs a strong mind-clutch.
Being there means that you've got everything to lose, I think it's very different from starting in any other position.

So I reviewed Felix's career to see how did he win and how did he do when leading after the first run:
20-01-2013 Wins Slalom in Wengen, but was 2nd after run 1  (run 1 report)
13-03-2010 Wins Slalom in Garmisch, best time in run 2 but was 5th after run 1 (run 1 report)
24-01-2010 Wins Slalom in Kitzbuehel, was 3rd after run 1 (run 1 report)

18-03-2012, Leads Slalom's run 1 in Schladming, 11th time in run 2 drop to 2nd place, Myhrer wins (race report)

That's all... a bit disappointed, thought I've found more relevant results.
Actually he mainteined the lead in some minor FIS, European Cup, National championships or Summer races but the poor field, no TV and less points made it a bit different.

The visible trend though, is that he tends to drop positions when in top positions (2nd or 3rd) after run 1, while he performs better after a bad run 1.

There's to say that his results have become more constant only from this year, while also last season he was very faulty (remember the ghost-straddles gate?), and his starting numbers where higher.

Here's the video of his run. 

Apart from the big mistake he looked wooden, not as fluent as he was in run 1, and these are the effects of those everything-to-lose thinking at the starting gate.
A fluent second run as leader is something very uncommon, for now only Hirscher and Ligety (in Giant-Slalom) are able of it, and Maze and sometimes Shiffrin for the ladies.

Who knows whether this Neureuther-Hirscher "bromance" will take Felix also to this new ability?

The end of the World (Championships)

I have no idea of what they're saying but seems to me proper to watch it in "original language", right tribute to a great Champion.



Not many write-ups (none to be fair) about these last day of Schladming WSC, again I'm sorry.

Now back to old business, there's no time to breath and be pleased with successes or angry with poor performances. The World Cup and the rush to the "Crystal Cup" resume already in this week.

Men will be in Garmsich-Partenkirichen with a downhill and a giant-slalom.
Ladies in Meribel with a downhill and a super-combined.

Interesting to see how the World Championships have changed the balances in the World Cup.

Who comes back stronger and with more self-confidence in his weapons is Ligety.
"Shred" probably will be in GAP racing both DH and GS, some important points in that DH, added to those of the GS may give him the right boost for a comeback that fairly appears impossible, but after what he's shown in these Championships three more GSs, two more 2 SGs, plus SLs and DHs means a good lot of potential cup points for 'Shred'.

Who's really targeting the Overall standing is Svindal; the viking comes from the championships with highs and lows. He won the gold medal in DH, but had great delusions from SG and the combined.
Minor target for him is the Downhill Cup, where he's just three points behind Paris.

Hirscher... about him there's just to say he has won the most difficult race of his career, so far and for many years to come.
Comparing his last season, full of DNFs (the in-famous staddling gate) and wasted chaces, to this one, where he's been perfect it seems fair to think he'll defend the Crystal Cup with easiness

Men Overall Standing:
Hirscher 1135
Svindal 921
Neureuther 776
Ligety 736
Kostelic 705


For the ladies. Cup leader Maze looked a bit cooked into the second week of the Championships, and hardly she'll have the best shape back in time for this first WC stage.
Anyway only the math hasn't assigned her the Cup yet. She's doubled the chasers, and the first two names of the chasers group aren't in great mood as well.
Though, being one who really hate to lose hardly she'll relax, and new targets are already clear. She can really make history winning also the little cups of every discipline.
She's already won Giant-Slalom Cup.
Second place in Slalom Cup, with 33 points disadvantage from the leader, "Little miss sunshine" Shiffrin.
Leader in Super-G Cup, 4 points more than Vonn and 65 more than Mancuso.
Third place in Dowhill Cup. Vonn lead with 340 points, ahead of Cook with 211 and Maze 189.
Leader in the Combined Cup, that will be assigned this weekend.



Coming to my betting analysis, I had a very awful start losing 16 units in the first two days: I relied to much on suppositions about physical preparation while the weather and snow's conditions played the biggest part in those races.
It also says much about my preferences for GS and SL, which, although can be cruel for the higher risks of cheap mistakes, staddles and all..., are also the one I understand, know, and read better.

				Results
Event	odds	stake	WON/LOST	partial	total
Ladies Super-G
Fenninger winner	9	1	L	-1
Mancuso winner	12	1	L	-1
h2h Fenninger – Rebensburg – 2	1,9	3	L	-3
h2h Lindell-Vikarby – Fanchini – 2	2,76	2	V	0
h2h Schmidhofer – Aufdenblatten – 2	2,02	3	L	-3
				-8	-8
Men Super-G
h2h Streitberger – Theaux – 2	2,02	3	L	-3
Reichelt winner	11	1	L	-1
Reichelt podium	3,5	2	L	-2
Mayer podium	4	1	L	-1
Kostelic podium	11	1	L	-1
				-8	-16
Ladies Super Combined
Gut podium	8	1	L	-1
				-1	-17
Men Downhill
h2h Fill – Mayer 1	2,83	2	W	3,66
				3,66	-13,34
Men Super Combined
h2h Baumann – Mermillod-Blondin – 2	2	3	L	-3
Ligety winner	7	1	W	6
				3	-10,34
Ladies Giant-Slalom
Worley winner	9	1	W	8
Worley podium	2,75	2	W	3,5
h2h Lindell-Vikarby – Hansdotter -2	2,15	3	W	3,45
				14,95	4,61
Men Giant-Slalom
h2h Moelgg – Dopfer – 1	2,24	2	W	2,48
Pinturault winner	21	1	L	-1
h2h Simoncelli – Blardone - 1	1,98	2	W	1,96
Pinturault podium	5	1	L	-1
				2,44	7,05
Ladies Slalom
h2h I.Curtoni – Geiger – 2	2,09	2	V	0
h2h N.Loeseth – Gagnon – 2	1,98	3	W	2,94
				2,94	9,99
Men Slalom
h2h Razzoli – Grange – 2	2,15	2	W	2,3
h2h Missilier – Hargin – 1	2,11	2	L	-2
h2h Thaler – Ligety – 1	2,47	2	V	0
				0,3	10,29
	Staked=	48		ROI=	21%

Schladming 2013 - Men's Giant-Slalom

Giant-Slalom today.
Unlike women's giant-slalom yesterday, the starting list list for men's GS has been shortened with a qualification race.
So there'll be "only" 99 athletes on course today.
Run 1 starting at 10:00 CET, course setter Puelacher, Austria's coach.
Run 2 starting at 13:30 CET, course setter Theolier, Italy's coach, formerly France's.

Same slope of yasterday's ladies GS, last part of the "Planai".
Also today icy and steep.






Starting list:
1 421328 SVINDAL Aksel Lund 1982 NOR Head
2 194364 PINTURAULT Alexis 1991 FRA Salomon
3 534562 LIGETY Ted 1984 USA Head
4 292000 BLARDONE Massimiliano 1979 ITA Dynastar
5 202462 DOPFER Fritz 1987 GER Nordica
6 53831 HIRSCHER Marcel 1989 AUT Atomic
7 292491 MOELGG Manfred 1982 ITA Fischer
8 292120 SIMONCELLI Davide 1979 ITA Salomon
9 380260 KOSTELIC Ivica 1979 CRO Fischer
10 180534 SANDELL Marcus 1987 FIN Fischer
11 51007 SCHOERGHOFER Philipp 1983 AUT Fischer
12 191750 FANARA Thomas 1981 FRA Fischer
13 201702 NEUREUTHER Felix 1984 GER Nordica
14 53985 MATHIS Marcel 1991 AUT Head
15 50625 RAICH Benjamin 1978 AUT Atomic
16 501017 MYHRER Andre 1983 SWE Nordica
17 191423 RICHARD Cyprien 1979 FRA Fischer
18 510727 DEFAGO Didier 1977 SUI Rossignol
19 501324 OLSSON Matts 1988 SWE Atomic
20 202437 LUITZ Stefan 1992 GER Rossignol
21 421669 HAUGEN Leif Kristian 1987 NOR Rossignol
22 511313 JANKA Carlo 1986 SUI Atomic
23 194495 FAIVRE Mathieu 1992 FRA Head
24 534959 JITLOFF Tim 1985 USA Fischer
25 294890 NANI Roberto 1988 ITA Voelkl
26 700830 ZAMPA Adam 1990 SVK Salomon
27 511852 CAVIEZEL Gino 1992 SUI Atomic
28 510997 BERTHOD Marc 1983 SUI Salomon
29 561032 JAZBEC Janez 1984 SLO Elan
30 100558 COOK Dustin 1989 CAN Head
31 150398 BANK Ondrej 1980 CZE Elan
32 180627 MALMSTROM Victor 1991 FIN Atomic
33 481006 ZUEV Stepan 1988 RUS Rossignol
34 930160 KELLEY Robby 1990 USA Head
35 103676 BROWN Philip 1991 CAN Rossignol
36 422304 KRISTOFFERSEN Henrik 1994 NOR Rossignol
37 180666 TORSTI Samu 1991 FIN Fischer
38 481327 TRIKHICHEV Pavel 1992 RUS Rossignol
39 561244 KRANJEC Zan 1992 SLO Rossignol
40 531452 BIESEMEYER Thomas 1989 USA Rossignol
41 910004 DEFLORIAN Mirko 1980 MDA
42 180705 PIRINEN Eemeli 1993 FIN Atomic
43 400237 MEINERS Maarten 1992 NED
44 561217 KOSI Klemen 1991 SLO Atomic
45 561254 ZERAK Misel 1992 SLO Rossignol
46 40489 LAIDLAW Luke 1992 AUS
47 481103 ANDRIENKO Aleksander 1990 RUS Rossignol
48 30149 SIMARI BIRKNER Cristian Javier 1980 ARG Atomic
49 410266 GRIFFIN Benjamin 1986 NZL Head
50 380335 ZUBCIC Filip 1993 CRO Atomic
51 302982 OHKOSHI Ryunosuke 1988 JPN
52 303097 ISHII Tomoya 1989 JPN Salomon
53 92534 CHONGAROV Nikola 1989 BUL Volkl
54 20174 VIDOSA Roger 1984 AND
55 350086 HEEB Simon 1991 LIE
56 370022 JENOT Olivier 1988 MON Dynastar
57 30266 GASTALDI Sebastiano 1991 ARG Rossignol
58 20398 VERDU SANCHEZ Joan 1995 AND
59 260110 KIYA DARBANDSARI Mohammad 1989 IRA
60 150495 VRABLIK Martin 1982 CZE Elan
61 390035 SMITH Warren Cummings 1992 EST
62 550054 ZVEJNIEKS Kristaps 1992 LAT
63 410365 BARWOOD Adam 1992 NZL
64 400235 WINKELHORST Steffan 1992 NED
65 700879 ZAMPA Andreas 1993 SVK Salomon
66 20324 OLIVERAS Marc 1991 AND
67 30246 BIRKNER KETELHOHN Jorge F. 1990 ARG
68 380332 VUKELIC Leo 1993 CRO
69 92562 PRISADOV Stefan 1990 BUL
70 310426 VUKICEVIC Marko 1992 SRB
71 680053 GELASHVILI Jaba 1993 GEO Atomic
72 110320 CLARO Eugenio 1993 CHI
73 40349 RISHWORTH Mike 1987 AUS Rossignol
74 700868 FALAT Matej 1993 SVK
75 750088 RISTEVSKI Antonio 1989 MKD
76 170131 FAARUP Christoffer 1992 DAN
77 680041 ABRAMASHVILI Iason 1988 GEO
78 860005 BRACHNER Patrick 1992 AZE
79 460060 BARBU Alexandru 1987 ROU
80 660021 DANILOCHKIN Yuri 1991 BLR
81 230659 VALCAREGGI Massimiliano 1995 GRE
82 800013 TOLA Erjon 1986 ALB
83 80063 LONGHI Jhonatan 1988 BRA Fischer
84 120047 ZHANG Yuxin 1989 CHN
85 240132 FARKAS Norbert 1992 HUN
86 250348 KRISTGEIRSSON Einar-Kristinn 1994 ISL
87 320360 PARK Hyun 1993 KOR
88 280030 VANDEPUT Virgile 1994 ISR
89 710311 RUDIC Marko 1990 BIH
90 740022 NERSISYAN Arsen 1987 ARM Voelkl
91 690672 TELYCHUK Vasyl 1992 UKR
92 60237 GREEFS Sam 1995 BEL
93 360041 YNGLAND Kim 1984 LUX
94 210024 BABIKOV Dmitriy 1990 UZB
95 950000 OETTL REYES Manfred 1993 PER
96 310403 MINIC Mladen 1993 MNE
97 160091 PAPAMICHAEL Constantinos 1993 CYP
98 270055 LYNE Conor 1993 IRE
99 340305 MOHBAT Alexandre 1995 LIB

World Cup leader and local hero Marcel Hirscher reportedly missed bib draw, and hasn't slept much for a muscular trouble at his back.
This should open to another win for Ted Ligety.
Following recent results from french team I'd keep an eye on Pinturault, who also got bib #2.
Current prices for the young frenchman are much higher than I expected.
The low starting bib might be a great advantage, as it's been yesterday for the ladies: Worley, Maze, Fenninger and Zettel were bib number 1, 3, 2, 4 in the order.
Winner: Pinturault 1 unit @21 Lost -1
Podium. Pinturault 1 unit @5 Lost -1


h2h Dopfer - Moelgg - pick Moelgg 2 units @2.24 Won +2.48
The italian usually enjoy icy condition and having his coach as course setter is al little advantage as well.

h2h Simoncelli - Blardone - pick Simoncelli 2 units @1.98 Won +1.96
Blardone had a little crash while practising.
Anyway I fancy Simoncelli who as a more cautious style, with "derapage" before the gate, while Blardone approach it more direcly but on this icy slope a little delay in the line may be hard to recover.

+2.44

Schladming 2013 - Giant-Slalom Ladies

Could be said we're into the second week of the championships, the one dedicated to the technical disciplines (actually it's only last four days).

In these four days we're also going to see a race in the race: there's the one for the medals with all the top racers, those you usually see also during the world cup season; and another competition featuring athletes from the most strange parts of the world whose only goal is to see and pass the finish line. If you're into sportmanship and your tv shows the entire race I think it worth a try, watching skiers from Senegal or Mexico completing the race and celebrating as if they've won is something very Olympic-spirit-ish, nevermind the +20 seconds disadvantage from the leader.
Just a couple of numbers: there'll be 139 skiers from 55 nations today.
Starting list:
1 196928 WORLEY Tessa 1989 FRA Rossignol
2 55947 FENNINGER Anna 1989 AUT Head
3 565243 MAZE Tina 1983 SLO Stoeckli
4 55838 ZETTEL Kathrin 1986 AUT Atomic
5 205218 REBENSBURG Viktoria 1989 GER Nordica
6 296509 CURTONI Irene 1985 ITA Rossignol
7 505632 LINDELL-VIKARBY Jessica 1984 SWE Rossignol
8 505679 HANSDOTTER Frida 1985 SWE Rossignol
9 537545 MANCUSO Julia 1984 USA Head
10 185140 POUTIAINEN Tanja 1980 FIN Fischer
11 515747 GISIN Dominique 1985 SUI Dynastar
12 55576 GOERGL Elisabeth 1981 AUT Head
13 516138 GUT Lara 1991 SUI Rossignol
14 55759 KIRCHGASSER Michaela 1985 AUT Atomic
15 206001 HOEFL- Riesch Maria 1984 GER Head
16 6535237 SHIFFRIN Mikaela 1995 USA Atomic
17 295445 KARBON Denise 1980 ITA Fischer
18 105269 GAGNON Marie-Michele 1989 CAN Rossignol
19 196793 MARMOTTAN Anemone 1988 FRA Rossignol
20 565268 DREV Ana 1985 SLO Voelkl
21 296729 FANCHINI Nadia 1986 ITA Dynastar
22 505760 PIETILAE-HOLMNER Maria 1986 SWE Rossignol
23 196179 BERTRAND Marion 1984 FRA Fischer
24 296259 MOELGG Manuela 1983 ITA Rossignol
25 206355 DUERR Lena 1991 GER Fischer
26 196726 BARTHET Anne-Sophie 1988 FRA Head
27 106825 PREFONTAINE Marie-Pier 1988 CAN Rossignol
28 425880 SEJERSTED Lotte Smiseth 1991 NOR Atomic
29 206367 HRONEK Veronique 1991 GER Fischer
30 506399 HECTOR Sara 1992 SWE Atomic
31 495318 RUIZ CASTILLO Carolina 1981 SPA Salomon
32 425887 LOESETH Mona 1991 NOR Atomic
33 425929 MOWINCKEL Ragnhild 1992 NOR Rossignol
34 425771 LOESETH Nina 1989 NOR Voelkl
35 306249 HASEGAWA Emi 1986 JPN
36 355050 WEIRATHER Tina 1989 LIE Atomic
37 565373 ROBNIK Tina 1991 SLO Fischer
38 306096 HOSHI Mizue 1985 JPN Salomon
39 516280 HOLDENER Wendy 1993 SUI Head
40 107532 TOMMY Mikaela 1995 CAN
41 565360 STUHEC Ilka 1990 SLO Rossignol
42 185281 HALME Nina 1990 FIN Head
43 155699 PAULATHOVA Katerina 1993 CZE
44 515766 SUTER Fabienne 1985 SUI Stoeckli
45 435210 GASIENICA DANIEL Agnieszka 1987 POL Rossignol
46 435245 CHRAPEK Karolina 1990 POL
47 315187 IGNJATOVIC Nevena 1990 SRB Stoeckli
48 185317 SOPPELA Merle 1991 FIN Fischer
49 538573 ROSS Laurenne 1988 USA Atomic
50 485772 ASTAPENKO Daria 1994 RUS
51 485731 ROMANOVA Anastasia 1993 RUS
52 705394 KANTOROVA Barbara 1992 SVK Rossignol
53 435334 GASIENICA DANIEL Maryna 1994 POL
54 35079 SIMARI BIRKNER Maria Belen 1982 ARG Rossignol
55 155728 DUBOVSKA Martina 1992 CZE Elan
56 565400 HORVAT Katja 1993 SLO Stoeckli
57 405138 JELINKOVA Adriana 1995 NED
58 155415 ZAHROBSKA Sarka 1985 CZE Fischer
59 45331 SMALL Greta 1995 AUS
60 405091 DIRKZWAGER Mandy 1990 NED
61 35089 SIMARI BIRKNER Macarena 1984 ARG Fischer
62 715123 NOVAKOVIC Zana 1985 BIH
63 35112 QUIROGA Julietta 1988 ARG
64 385093 TRSINSKI Sasa 1996 CRO
65 115115 BARAHONA Noelle 1990 CHI
66 35156 BANCORA Salome 1993 ARG
67 95050 KIRKOVA Maria 1986 BUL Blizzard
68 155695 VOLOPICHOVA Valentina 1993 CZE
69 255367 VILHJALMSDOTTIR Helga Maria 1995 ISL
70 695063 MATSOTSKA Bogdana 1989 UKR
71 245051 BERECZ Anna 1988 HUN
72 685018 TSIKLAURI Nino 1993 GEO
73 385084 ZUBCIC Tamara 1995 CRO
74 665009 SHKANOVA Maria 1989 BLR
75 385052 PALIC Tea 1991 CRO Atomic
76 415169 MILLER-BROWN Harriet 1991 NZL
77 415205 HUDSON Piera 1996 NZL
78 555018 GASUNA Lelde 1990 LAT
79 385071 SOLA Matilda 1994 CRO
80 115143 VYHMEISTER Stefanie 1993 CHI
81 65090 VAN BUYNDER Isabel 1991 BEL
82 175041 LEMGART Charlotte Techen 1993 DAN
83 125021 XIA Lina 1987 CHN
84 115173 MONTESINOS Macarena 1995 CHI
85 555028 KRUMINA Katrina 1994 LAT
86 715150 HALILOVIC Amira 1993 BIH
87 255352 ASGEIRSDOTTIR Erla 1994 ISL
88 255357 EINARSDOTTIR Freydis-Halla 1994 ISL
89 125022 QIN Xiyue 1988 CHN
90 695101 TIKUN Tetyana 1994 UKR
91 115156 CEA Javiera 1994 CHI
92 275024 BELL Victoria 1994 IRE
93 695105 GORBUNOVA Anastasiia 1995 UKR
94 125027 LI Yang 1989 CHN
95 555036 ABOLTINA Agnese 1996 LAT
96 215007 GRIGOREVA Kseniya 1987 UZB
97 695076 TYMCHENKO Roksana 1991 UKR Rossignol
98 145003 KRONE Kristina 1990 PUR
99 175042 MADSEN Malene 1993 DAN
100 715153 HADZIC Sumejja 1994 BIH
101 315207 TOMIC Veronika 1994 SRB
102 285015 KIEK Ronnie 1993 ISR
103 959300 PELLEGRIN Elise 1991 MLT
104 555035 BONDARE Liene 1996 LAT
105 715152 KUSMUK Kristina 1994 BIH
106 315201 JANKOVIC Masa 1994 SRB
107 245069 DOME Dora 1996 HUN
108 955000 OETTL REYES Ornella 1991 PER
109 235195 KOKKINI Anastasia 1992 GRE
110 315203 BULATOVIC Ivana 1994 MNE
111 605004 GASPAR Veronica 1995 ISV
112 285018 BUCHLER Gitit 1993 ISR
113 285014 HIRSHFELD Yom 1991 ISR
114 235133 MAVRIDOU Paraskevi 1990 GRE
115 665010 LESIK Anastasiya 1995 BLR
116 785007 JANUSKEVICIUTE Ieva 1994 LTU
117 455005 SELVA Federica 1996 RSM
118 315208 RADOJICIC Milena 1995 MNE
119 235219 MARAGKOU Areti 1993 GRE
120 345107 MOHBAT Natacha 1996 LIB
121 245067 BERECZ Reka 1995 HUN
122 265006 KALHOR Marjan 1988 IRA
123 265004 KIADARBANDSARI Fatemeh 1982 IRA
124 265013 KALHOR Ziba 1991 IRA
125 235110 RALLI Sophia 1988 GRE
126 265005 KALHOR Mitra 1985 IRA
127 345098 KEIROUZ Celine 1995 LIB
128 165037 TAYLOR Alexandra 1994 CYP
129 345095 NASSAR Lea 1995 LIB
130 775004 PALIUTKINA Olga 1993 KGZ
131 245061 CSIMA Reka 1993 HUN
132 345061 CHAMOUN Jacky 1991 LIB
133 575006 BAUER Laura 1993 RSA
134 165038 PHOTIADES Mary 1995 CYP
135 135009 HUANG Pei-Chen 1995 TPE
136 625024 DEVI Varsha 1995 IND
137 625023 THAKUR Aanchal 1996 IND
138 745006 MURADYAN Tatevik 1992 ARM
139 455003 CHIARUZZI Eleonora 1993 RSM

Run 1 starts at 10:00 CET, course setter is Finland's coach.
Run 2 starts ar 13:30 CET, course setter is Austria's coach.
The course is the same of the men: last part of the "Planai", the slope for men's Downhill and Super-G.
It's enough steep and technical, in addition to the hard and compact snow winner must have the right mix of technic and power.


From previous days is fair to say Germany and France will be the "hot" teams, mainly with their key athletes Rebensburg and Worley respectively.

Worley to win 1 unit @9 Won +8
Worley to podium 2 units @2.75 Won +3.5
As said Worley can do a good job.
Rebensburg had better odds yesterday, while now they've lowered and I don't like them anymore.

h2h Lindell-Vikarby - Hansdotter - pick Hansdotter 3 unit @2.15 Won +3.45
Hansdotter had an impressive pre-Championships period.
Lindell-Vikarby although her better results in GS to me is more a speed disciplines specialist, and could have difficult with a more winding course.

+14.95

A great race, on a great slope, worth of a World Championship.
Worley made two flawless run, and recorded the best time in both.
She preced Maze, +1.12, who attacked the second run recovering from a bad first one and overtaking two austrians: Fenninger is third, +1.18 from the leader, and Zettel fourth, +1.54.

Schladming 2013 - Super-Combined Men

First, sorry I haven't been posting in past two days, it's hard for me to write up previews and postviews and do picks, that often go bad, and all....


Super-combi today: one run of dowhill starting at 12 (CET), and one run of Slalom at 18.15 so night event. Both runs on the original slopes. Key fact, slalom's course setter is french team, and so Pinturault's coach.

Starting list, remembering that slalom's run will have an invers order of the top 30 from downhill's run.
1 150495 VRABLIK Martin 1982 CZE Elan
2 194190 ROGER Brice 1990 FRA Rossignol
3 6530319 COCHRAN-SIEGLE Ryan 1992 USA Rossignol
4 30149 SIMARI BIRKNER Cristian Javier 1980 ARG Atomic
5 510997 BERTHOD Marc 1983 SUI Salomon
6 660021 DANILOCHKIN Yuri 1991 BLR 
7 150398 BANK Ondrej 1980 CZE Elan
8 510890 ZURBRIGGEN Silvan 1981 SUI Rossignol
9 180570 ROMAR Andreas 1989 FIN Atomic
10 50625 RAICH Benjamin 1978 AUT Atomic
11 53902 MAYER Matthias 1990 AUT Head
12 294277 KLOTZ Siegmar 1987 ITA Nordica
13 511352 VILETTA Sandro 1986 SUI Salomon
14 192746 THEAUX Adrien 1984 FRA Salomon
15 291459 PARIS Dominik 1989 ITA Nordica
16 51215 BAUMANN Romed 1986 AUT Blizzard
17 192504 MERMILLOD BLONDIN Thomas 1984 FRA Salomon
18 511313 JANKA Carlo 1986 SUI Atomic
19 293006 INNERHOFER Christof 1984 ITA Rossignol
20 421328 SVINDAL Aksel Lund 1982 NOR Head
21 194364 PINTURAULT Alexis 1991 FRA Salomon
22 380260 KOSTELIC Ivica 1979 CRO Fischer
23 561217 KOSI Klemen 1991 SLO Atomic
24 92534 CHONGAROV Nikola 1989 BUL Volkl
25 90131 GEORGIEV Georgi 1987 BUL Atomic
26 430429 BYDLINSKI Maciej 1988 POL Atomic
27 534562 LIGETY Ted 1984 USA Head
28 480736 KHOROSHILOV Alexander 1984 RUS Fischer
29 700830 ZAMPA Adam 1990 SVK Salomon
30 293550 MARSAGLIA Matteo 1985 ITA Rossignol
31 501439 HEDIN Douglas 1990 SWE Head
32 491129 TERRA Ferran 1987 SPA Rossignol
33 400281 VAN HEEK Marvin 1991 NED Salomon
34 20267 ESTEVE Kevin 1989 AND 
35 530165 BRANDENBURG Will 1987 USA Fischer
36 400016 WANDERS Arjan 1978 NED 
37 400237 MEINERS Maarten 1992 NED 
38 531452 BIESEMEYER Thomas 1989 USA Rossignol
39 20324 OLIVERAS Marc 1991 AND 
40 670052 KHUBER Martin 1992 KAZ 
41 561216 KLINE Bostjan 1991 SLO Stoeckli
42 170131 FAARUP Christoffer 1992 DAN 
43 670037 ZAKURDAEV Igor 1987 KAZ 
44 380341 ULLRICH Max 1994 CRO 
45 491151 DE LA CUESTA Paul 1988 SPA Salomon
46 430472 KLUSAK Michal 1990 POL Head
47 550022 RODE Roberts 1987 LAT 
48 710320 LAIKERT Igor 1991 BIH 
49 670029 PIMENOV Taras 1984 KAZ 
50 670058 KOSHKIN Dmitriy 1986 KAZ 
51 700868 FALAT Matej 1993 SVK 
52 690086 FESHCHUK Rostyslav 1990 UKR 
53 30283 FREEMAN CRESPO Ignacio 1992 ARG 


I've pointed out the hot names, being both runs on the original slopes the chances to win are equally distributed among downhiller and slalomist, obviously those with more overall skills are even hotter, and in this case the field is limited to Raich, Ligety, Pinturault and Kostelic.

Kostelic is favourite to win, he's ran the real downhill beside the training, but close following him there's Pinturault and Ligety.
The frenchmen might have the advantage of his coach setting the slalom's course, and also the fact that he's probably the best slalomist.
But Ted Ligety deserves equal attentions. The american seems to enjoy these slopes, his abilities and Giant-Slalom skills, his own characteristic style, the position of the external leg in large range turns, seems key elements to ski -or shred, like Ted would say- on this slopes.
In both previous combined in this season, Wengen, and Kitz, Ligety didn't reach the finish line, of the downhill in Kitz, of the slalom run in Wengen when making a good run, but bad luck he lost a ski when he was three/four gates away fron the finish line.
The importance of this event, together with the high confidence coming from an already won medal, can cheer him and keep him away from cheap mistakes. It's really hard to think him not reaching the podium also in a far-from-perfect-scenario.
Winner: Ligety 1 unit @7  Won +6

h2h Baumann - Mermillod-Blondin - pick Mermillod-Blondin 3 units @2 Lost -3
The frenchmen was third in the classic combined of Kitzbuehel (combined with 2 slalom runs).
Anyway he is a decent slalomist sure better than Baumann while the gap between these two can be little    after the downhill, as Baumann isn't in great form and wasn't even choosed for the real downhill race.

Svindal's current price (around 12) looks good for a trade, expecting him to have 2, maybe 3 seconds advantage after the downhill run.

Completely wrong the pick against Baumann, who's apparently worked around this event.

Schladming 2013 - Men's Downhill

The Queen of the races, takes place.
As usual, and maybe even more this time, in Austria there's a lot of talking and media's attention on this event; mostly brought by the selections of who'll race this one.

Few things can be undertood from the two time trials.
Yesterday's practice was even shortened because the finish line is the same for every race and while men where practicing the downhill slope, there was ladies' slalom run of the super-combined.
So last section of the course was cut away. The practice ended about at the level of the "italienerloch".
From the first practice reports Innerhofer and Reichelt made the best time in that section, and this can be a great advantage, above all for austrians that surely know better this slope.

Starting list:

Bib	FIS Code	Name	Year	Nation	Skis
1	194190	ROGER Brice	1990	FRA	Rossignol
2	380260	KOSTELIC Ivica	1979	CRO	Fischer
3	53902	MAYER Matthias	1990	AUT	Head
4	400281	VAN HEEK Marvin	1991	NED	Salomon
5	201606	KEPPLER Stephan	1983	GER	Head
6	560447	SPORN Andrej	1981	SLO	Elan
7	180570	ROMAR Andreas	1989	FIN	Atomic
8	102271	HUDEC Jan	1981	CAN	Rossignol
9	292514	HEEL Werner	1982	ITA	Atomic
10	53817	FRANZ Max	1989	AUT	Atomic
11	533131	SULLIVAN Marco	1980	USA	Atomic
12	510727	DEFAGO Didier	1977	SUI	Rossignol
13	191964	POISSON David	1982	FRA	Salomon
14	292455	FILL Peter	1982	ITA	Atomic
15	103271	THOMSEN Benjamin	1987	CAN	Head
16	102263	GUAY Erik	1981	CAN	Atomic
17	421328	SVINDAL Aksel Lund	1982	NOR	Head
18	291459	PARIS Dominik	1989	ITA	Nordica
19	50742	REICHELT Hannes	1980	AUT	Salomon
20	192746	THEAUX Adrien	1984	FRA	Salomon
21	293006	INNERHOFER Christof	1984	ITA	Rossignol
22	50753	KROELL Klaus	1980	AUT	Salomon
23	102899	OSBORNE-PARADIS Manuel	1984	CAN	Rossignol
24	511313	JANKA Carlo	1986	SUI	Atomic
25	511139	KUENG Patrick	1984	SUI	Salomon
26	530874	GANONG Travis	1988	USA	Atomic
27	510890	ZURBRIGGEN Silvan	1981	SUI	Rossignol
28	533866	NYMAN Steven	1982	USA	Fischer
29	192932	FAYED Guillermo	1985	FRA	Head
30	561216	KLINE Bostjan	1991	SLO	Stoeckli
31	501439	HEDIN Douglas	1990	SWE	Head
32	481705	GLEBOV Alexander	1983	RUS	Head
33	150398	BANK Ondrej	1980	CZE	Elan
34	491129	TERRA Ferran	1987	SPA	Rossignol
35	491151	DE LA CUESTA Paul	1988	SPA	Salomon
36	561217	KOSI Klemen	1991	SLO	Atomic
37	530939	WEIBRECHT Andrew	1986	USA	Rossignol
38	20267	ESTEVE Kevin	1989	AND
39	430429	BYDLINSKI Maciej	1988	POL	Atomic
40	481054	MURAVYEV Ivan	1989	RUS
41	660021	DANILOCHKIN Yuri	1991	BLR
42	670037	ZAKURDAEV Igor	1987	KAZ
43	20324	OLIVERAS Marc	1991	AND
44	380341	ULLRICH Max	1994	CRO
45	670052	KHUBER Martin	1992	KAZ
46	30149	SIMARI BIRKNER Cristian Javier	1980	ARG	Atomic
47	170131	FAARUP Christoffer	1992	DAN
48	92534	CHONGAROV Nikola	1989	BUL	Volkl
49	150495	VRABLIK Martin	1982	CZE	Elan
50	92570	GEORGIEV Svetoslav	1991	BUL
51	550022	RODE Roberts	1987	LAT
52	710320	LAIKERT Igor	1991	BIH
53	430472	KLUSAK Michal	1990	POL	Head
54	670058	KOSHKIN Dmitriy	1986	KAZ
55	30283	FREEMAN CRESPO Ignacio	1992	ARG
56	410364	FEASEY Willis	1992	NZL
57	670029	PIMENOV Taras	1984	KAZ
58	690086	FESHCHUK Rostyslav	1990	UKR

Again as it's happening many times there are racer with odds that won't take part to the competition and no-odds racer that will be in.

Svindal is the favourite again, followed by Paris, Reichel, Innerhofer, Kroell and Guay.
Hard to see a different name on the highest step of the podium this time.
Snow condition and also the day time (no darkening and bad vision) hardly will pull a Ligety, an outsider winner.
I also noticed that in both men and women speed events so far Head skis has the tendency to be faster.
Of the top competitors only Svindal has Head skis.

h2h Fill - Mayer - pick Fill 2 units @2.83 Won +3.66
Mayer was one of those austrina in the eye of the media' storm, being named in in place of Baumann or Puchner.
Fill isn't in great conditions but the starting bib, #3 Mayer, #14 Fill, is a great advantage for the italian.

A pick won, actually could be an easier win but Fill made a mistake in one of the last turns and lost speed for the slippery part before the finish line.

The best one as won the race. Svindal was just perfect from the starting gate to the red finish line. A great champion who deserved this medal after all.
+.46 from the leader for Dominik Paris, that's a confirmation of the quality talented... at 24 years old he could be considered young.
Surprise bronze medal to Poisson from france, +.97 from the leader. Including Rolland's gold medal in women's downhill and France leading the medal standing could be said that find a frenchmen on the podium isn't a surprise anymore, they've probably planned their season for this event.

Again no medals for Austria Ski Team: Kroell 4th, Reichelt went out.
Video of the top three runs, Svindal one's deserve to be watched, sorry for the italian commentators, but I've found this youtube user that post these videos.