I said I would try again pre-draw picks trying to anticipate drop in the odds, I couldn't find any odd good enough for it.
Anyway, some odds for today's race.
h2h Schild - Zettel - pick Zettel 2 units @2.44 Void 0
Schild didn't start her season as good as expected, for her also a 2nd place is below average.
Zettel made the opposite, with podiums both in GS and SL.
Schild yesterday didn't start the GS, for a flu.
h2h Gagnon - Zahrobska - pick Gagnon 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Huge difference in starting bib: Gagnon #9, Zahrobska #22, meaning Zahrobska will find a slope in worse conditions.
Also difference in shape as Gagnon is doing good in different disciplines, while Zahrobska is below her standards and maybe lacks of summer training due to a surgery.
h2h Poutiainen - Shiffrin - pick Shiffrin 2 units @2.18 Won +2.36
Over the even I'll always fancy the young talented Shiffrin. She's growing up and keeping a good constancy in results.
Poutiainen not bad so far, but Shiffrin seems always able to reach top placements.
h2h Mielzynski - Wikstroem - pick Mielzynski 1 unit @1.91 Won +0.91
Very low stake pick as both aren't constant.
I back Mielzynski that after last World cup slalom, almost a month ago in Aspen, raced in Nor-Am Cup with great results although other racer weren't at her level.
Wikstroem hasn't got official race since Aspen.
+1.27
Schild's flu, turns up to be a knee injury, didn't start and it's been better as Zettel went out in run1.
Gagnon is very aggressive, the day she puts together without mistakes the two runs she'll be very near to the podium.
Shiffrin get her first career win and is also Slalom's leader, definitively she's among the Big.
Also nice runs for Mielzynski, very smooth, clean. Wikstroem out.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
"There's a little black spot on the sun today"?
Following this post, I made yesterday where I was questioning whether bookies know the existence of the WCSL, the Standing that rules the draw of the starting list, and that is different from other standings, that award the Cups.
The answer I dare give is "No, they don't". And altough the way they set up the head to heads is still a mystery, form conditions, and recent results seem the main factors they value.
These are the starting bib in the head to head I selected:
Pinturault #15 - Neureuther #3
Byggmark #11 - Deville #2
Matt #4 - Moelgg #19
Here the odds before and after the draw of the starting list for the Slalom in Madonna di Campiglio.
The movements I expected actually took place.
Deville - Byggmark had only a little shiver, and I suppose recent results/shape is playing a big role in this head to head.
As girls are racing a Slalom and a Giant-Slalom in next days, I'll try again this sort of pre-draw pick, before "copyrigthing" this as pre-race trading (actually it's not trading since exchanges don't offer much liquidity on this sport, above all before the start of the race).
If they still leave evidences of such a ignorance this is going to be a quite good method, at least for our health, as going all green is always nice, above all in a sport where anything can happen at any moment.
The answer I dare give is "No, they don't". And altough the way they set up the head to heads is still a mystery, form conditions, and recent results seem the main factors they value.
These are the starting bib in the head to head I selected:
Pinturault #15 - Neureuther #3
Byggmark #11 - Deville #2
Matt #4 - Moelgg #19
Here the odds before and after the draw of the starting list for the Slalom in Madonna di Campiglio.
The movements I expected actually took place.
Deville - Byggmark had only a little shiver, and I suppose recent results/shape is playing a big role in this head to head.
As girls are racing a Slalom and a Giant-Slalom in next days, I'll try again this sort of pre-draw pick, before "copyrigthing" this as pre-race trading (actually it's not trading since exchanges don't offer much liquidity on this sport, above all before the start of the race).
If they still leave evidences of such a ignorance this is going to be a quite good method, at least for our health, as going all green is always nice, above all in a sport where anything can happen at any moment.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Men' Slalom - Madonna di Campiglio
So, let's try to understand how head to head are set up.
Here's three pick I've done BEFORE the draw of the starting bibs.
h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Neureuther 2 units @2.02
h2h Byggmark - Deville - pick Deville 1 unit @2.25
h2h Matt - Moelgg - pick Matt 2 units @1.95
Pinturault - Neureuther
In this order they made 2/3 of the podium of last Slalom in Val d'Isere, where Alexis Pinturault achieved his first WC win. For Neureuther it was one of the many career podiums.
Every thing was a bit special in that weekend. Pinturault winning his first race, in his country, in a discipline that isn't his favourite. The following day a big mistake few gates away from the finish line probably prevented him from double the success, on the day that Ligety showed he's human finishing 3rd place.
In an inverse order they stand in the Slalom standing: Neureuther 3rd place with 116 points, followed closely by Pinturault with 108.
So all this points to a close head to head... but there's something missing.
The starting list doesn't follow the "Overall Standing" or the "Discipline Standing" (Slalom in this case), but another standing called World Cup Start List (WCSL), different for each of the four discipline.
In Slalom's WCSL Neureuther is 4th place, meaning he's in the first group and he can start with bib from 1 to 7, racing on a slope in good conditions. In WCSL Pinturault is 11th so his starting bib will be between 8 and 15, included, meaning condition could be worse and he'll take the start afterward anyway and this cause a drop of the odds.
Byggmark - Deville
Here momentums are in big contrast, if comapred to previous season. Deville struggles to find back his shape with a DNF and a 7th place. While Byggmark has little find himself after some seasons fighting with a change of style that sent him away from top placements; now seems to have find a good balance and had a good beginning with a 3rd and a 5th place.
Byggmark is 4th in the Slalom standing, while Deville is 14th.
Form for sure makes Byggmark big favored, for this, but again relying in the WCSL I'm pretty sure this odd will have a drop as Deville still as a spot in the first group, 5th, while Byggmark is in the second, 8th.
Matt - Moelgg
Also here there's a clash of shape, as there's been in previous seasons.
After coming near to retire, austrian Matt made some great season and gained the first group of the WCSL.
Moelgg, also fought with fitness and now is well out of the two group og the WCSL, being 19th.
This season however is inverting again the momentum with Moelgg climbing the standing with a 4th an a 11th placement in previous Slaloms, while Matt is doing average with a 8th, and a disqalification in Soelden due to technical measurement in his skis.
With this picks I want to see if they know the existence of the WCSL, a drop in these odds could prove it's so.
The fact that there haven't been races in this slope recently will reduce the variables from stats about results on this slope in other season.
Here's three pick I've done BEFORE the draw of the starting bibs.
h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Neureuther 2 units @2.02
h2h Byggmark - Deville - pick Deville 1 unit @2.25
h2h Matt - Moelgg - pick Matt 2 units @1.95
Pinturault - Neureuther
In this order they made 2/3 of the podium of last Slalom in Val d'Isere, where Alexis Pinturault achieved his first WC win. For Neureuther it was one of the many career podiums.
Every thing was a bit special in that weekend. Pinturault winning his first race, in his country, in a discipline that isn't his favourite. The following day a big mistake few gates away from the finish line probably prevented him from double the success, on the day that Ligety showed he's human finishing 3rd place.
In an inverse order they stand in the Slalom standing: Neureuther 3rd place with 116 points, followed closely by Pinturault with 108.
So all this points to a close head to head... but there's something missing.
The starting list doesn't follow the "Overall Standing" or the "Discipline Standing" (Slalom in this case), but another standing called World Cup Start List (WCSL), different for each of the four discipline.
In Slalom's WCSL Neureuther is 4th place, meaning he's in the first group and he can start with bib from 1 to 7, racing on a slope in good conditions. In WCSL Pinturault is 11th so his starting bib will be between 8 and 15, included, meaning condition could be worse and he'll take the start afterward anyway and this cause a drop of the odds.
Byggmark - Deville
Here momentums are in big contrast, if comapred to previous season. Deville struggles to find back his shape with a DNF and a 7th place. While Byggmark has little find himself after some seasons fighting with a change of style that sent him away from top placements; now seems to have find a good balance and had a good beginning with a 3rd and a 5th place.
Byggmark is 4th in the Slalom standing, while Deville is 14th.
Form for sure makes Byggmark big favored, for this, but again relying in the WCSL I'm pretty sure this odd will have a drop as Deville still as a spot in the first group, 5th, while Byggmark is in the second, 8th.
Matt - Moelgg
Also here there's a clash of shape, as there's been in previous seasons.
After coming near to retire, austrian Matt made some great season and gained the first group of the WCSL.
Moelgg, also fought with fitness and now is well out of the two group og the WCSL, being 19th.
This season however is inverting again the momentum with Moelgg climbing the standing with a 4th an a 11th placement in previous Slaloms, while Matt is doing average with a 8th, and a disqalification in Soelden due to technical measurement in his skis.
With this picks I want to see if they know the existence of the WCSL, a drop in these odds could prove it's so.
The fact that there haven't been races in this slope recently will reduce the variables from stats about results on this slope in other season.
Friday, December 14, 2012
14/12 Men Super-G - Val Gardena and Ladies Downhill - Val d Isere
Very rich calendar this weekend, and also following next week.
Men Super-G - Val Gardena
h2h Theaux - Guay - pick Theaux 2 units @3.11 win +4.22
Although he's very constant in his results, above all in this very slope, Erik Guay seems to be missing something that prevent him from very big results, recently. He's not at his best among turns, while long flat sections are his natural enviroment. So a Super-G doesn't suit hime too much.
Theaux showed lots of improvements in past season, and confirmed that with a 2nd place in the Super-G of Lake Louise.
Jansrud to podium 1 unit @2.25 lost -1
Track made by Norway's coach, and norvegian reportedly in top shape.
Ladies Downhill - Val d Isere
h2h Gut - Goergl - pick Goergl 3 units @2.12 lost -3
Starting number: Gut #2, Goergl #19.
Explanation of this odds is: they where expecting a storm or something so Gut starting early could avoid it.
But
So Gut will race almost blindly, while Goergl will have reports from racer who've completed the race before her start.
Goergl made better time in both time-trial.
+0.22
Men Super-G - Val Gardena
h2h Theaux - Guay - pick Theaux 2 units @3.11 win +4.22
Although he's very constant in his results, above all in this very slope, Erik Guay seems to be missing something that prevent him from very big results, recently. He's not at his best among turns, while long flat sections are his natural enviroment. So a Super-G doesn't suit hime too much.
Theaux showed lots of improvements in past season, and confirmed that with a 2nd place in the Super-G of Lake Louise.
Jansrud to podium 1 unit @2.25 lost -1
Track made by Norway's coach, and norvegian reportedly in top shape.
Ladies Downhill - Val d Isere
h2h Gut - Goergl - pick Goergl 3 units @2.12 lost -3
Starting number: Gut #2, Goergl #19.
Explanation of this odds is: they where expecting a storm or something so Gut starting early could avoid it.
But
So Gut will race almost blindly, while Goergl will have reports from racer who've completed the race before her start.
Goergl made better time in both time-trial.
+0.22
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Alpine skiing World Cup - types of bets and exchange markets
Following from here, where I gave an introduction to the alpine skiing, as it's not so popular, now I'll talk about types of betting.
DISCLAIMER: everything I write comes from me and my experience, which is made from my observation point -sitting here on my chair at the PC-, there isn't nothing technical, nothing coming from "inside": neither pro-skiing, nor bookmaker.
Winner and podium are simple as you think, but remember that some events has got two runs.
Head-to-Head: this type of bet compares the final position of two racer.
I don't know the criteria that bookies use to set up who's going h2h against who, in a h2h offered bet.
Not being a 1 vs 1 sport, but a 1 vs the field sport it's very uncertain how to set up the two names.
I guess they look at the standing of that speciality from the previous season and to recent form/results, that are similar[1] to the starting number the two can get[2]. Somehow they manage to set up close h2h.
I recognize that this is very subjective but this is my favourite type for may reason:
1) coming from my habit to make picks from tennis matches, this is where I find a comfortable area.
2) I'm an ill-study-methodist of styles either for tennis and skiing and I like this kind of clash.
Things can change very much from a discipline to an other, but even in a single discipline one slope could have very different features from another one and suit better to A than to B.
And I think that bookmaker don't have a great knowledge about this. Anyway for top skier differences are small, but for the majority of them these little things could influence their performance on a slope.
3) It's a matter of probability.
This is a cruel sport and a little error, like passing with one ski few centimeters away from the optimal line, could cause a great loss of time and even a DNF (Do Not Finish), because where your ski has passed there was a piece of ice and you didn't know and you're surprised by the change of grip of the ski and so you lose balance and fall down or manage to recover but you almost stop and lose time anyway.
So, in an high risk of fault sport, betting on h2h increase the probability of picking the right selection to 50-50 doesn't matter all the motivation about styles you give.
There's another type of bet, I don't use it, though, Backus none of my books offers it, but I find it a good one.
Winner of the group: pick the winner in a group (4, 5, or 6) of racer.
Again racer are set up by the book following unknown criteria.
Backers tend to back too high and layers tend to lay too low... many possibilities to be unmatched.
It's very hard to have a good trade.
Things go too fast (at least for me) and if you manage to back someone at a good price, and eventually he/she makes a good run likely all the unmatched money will be withdrew and you'll take the risk to not be able to cash out.
Also to notice that TVs are well behind the official live timing.
Anyway there are no bots, no sidecourters (sideslopers?).
[1] Starting lists (WCSL) and Cup standings (WC) don't follow the same formulas to assign points, meaning they've got two separate standing (as if in tennis there were, say, ATP Ranking, and a Draw Entry Ranking).
Anyway at the beginning of the season they're the same, while as season goes on the placements affect the two rankings in different ways, but hardly they'll differ in a big way if the skier is constant enough in his/her results (I'll make a post on standings).
[2] Starting bib are drawn, but there are group in which one can be drawn. E.g.: number one of the Starting list ranking can draw any number from 1 to 7 as if Djokovic (n.1 ATP) at the coming Australian Open could be #1 of the seeding as well as #7.
DISCLAIMER: everything I write comes from me and my experience, which is made from my observation point -sitting here on my chair at the PC-, there isn't nothing technical, nothing coming from "inside": neither pro-skiing, nor bookmaker.
Types of bets
There are several types: head-to-head (h2h), winner, podium and others.Winner and podium are simple as you think, but remember that some events has got two runs.
Head-to-Head: this type of bet compares the final position of two racer.
I don't know the criteria that bookies use to set up who's going h2h against who, in a h2h offered bet.
Not being a 1 vs 1 sport, but a 1 vs the field sport it's very uncertain how to set up the two names.
I guess they look at the standing of that speciality from the previous season and to recent form/results, that are similar[1] to the starting number the two can get[2]. Somehow they manage to set up close h2h.
I recognize that this is very subjective but this is my favourite type for may reason:
1) coming from my habit to make picks from tennis matches, this is where I find a comfortable area.
2) I'm an ill-study-methodist of styles either for tennis and skiing and I like this kind of clash.
Things can change very much from a discipline to an other, but even in a single discipline one slope could have very different features from another one and suit better to A than to B.
And I think that bookmaker don't have a great knowledge about this. Anyway for top skier differences are small, but for the majority of them these little things could influence their performance on a slope.
3) It's a matter of probability.
This is a cruel sport and a little error, like passing with one ski few centimeters away from the optimal line, could cause a great loss of time and even a DNF (Do Not Finish), because where your ski has passed there was a piece of ice and you didn't know and you're surprised by the change of grip of the ski and so you lose balance and fall down or manage to recover but you almost stop and lose time anyway.
So, in an high risk of fault sport, betting on h2h increase the probability of picking the right selection to 50-50 doesn't matter all the motivation about styles you give.
There's another type of bet, I don't use it, though, Backus none of my books offers it, but I find it a good one.
Winner of the group: pick the winner in a group (4, 5, or 6) of racer.
Again racer are set up by the book following unknown criteria.
Markets
This is a very poor sport and there isn't much liquidity.Backers tend to back too high and layers tend to lay too low... many possibilities to be unmatched.
It's very hard to have a good trade.
Things go too fast (at least for me) and if you manage to back someone at a good price, and eventually he/she makes a good run likely all the unmatched money will be withdrew and you'll take the risk to not be able to cash out.
Also to notice that TVs are well behind the official live timing.
Anyway there are no bots, no sidecourters (sideslopers?).
General rules
If a racer doesn't start the run1, bet is voided.
In a h2h: the racer you selected doesn't finish, the opponent finish: you lose. And you win in the other way around. Void if both don't finish the race.
[1] Starting lists (WCSL) and Cup standings (WC) don't follow the same formulas to assign points, meaning they've got two separate standing (as if in tennis there were, say, ATP Ranking, and a Draw Entry Ranking).
Anyway at the beginning of the season they're the same, while as season goes on the placements affect the two rankings in different ways, but hardly they'll differ in a big way if the skier is constant enough in his/her results (I'll make a post on standings).
[2] Starting bib are drawn, but there are group in which one can be drawn. E.g.: number one of the Starting list ranking can draw any number from 1 to 7 as if Djokovic (n.1 ATP) at the coming Australian Open could be #1 of the seeding as well as #7.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Ladies Giant-Slalom - St.Moritz
h2h Fenninger - Zettel - pick Fenninger 1 unit @2.10 Lost -1
Zettel great form can't be ignored above all in Giant-Slalom where she had already got two 2nd place in the previous GS of htis season.
Anyway also Fenninger did good, and was the closer to Tina Maze, winner in Aspen's GS before she - Fenninger- felt down during the run2.
Tomorrow there will be a huge difference in the starting list between these two with Fenninger taking the start with the slope in perfect conditions as she's #1 and Zettel well behind and with a worse slope, as #14.
h2h Brignone - Karbon - pick Brignone 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Again picking the difference in the starting list: #2 Brignone, #20 Karbon.
Brignone couldn't finish both previous GS but from the super-combined came a decent result there hope she'll do better in this event, that is her speciality.
h2h Gagnon - Poutiainen - pick Gagnon 1 unit @2.10 Win +1.1
Here the starting bib is against my pick: #10 vs #22.
Gagnon, though, showed a great form and improvements, also trying new events like Super-G and combined.
I think that the final part, very flat, needs a good sensibility, that to me Gagnon has got, while Poutiainen is a bit too heavy and could get struck in it.
-1.9
Fenninger out in run1 can't be commented.
Brignone out in run2 wasn't impressing but neither too bad, just averaged, maybe under her standards... reportedly she's suffering some ankle injury that really annoys her and she can't train hard.
Good Gagnon still improving.
In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well inclined... strange comebacks in run2
Zettel great form can't be ignored above all in Giant-Slalom where she had already got two 2nd place in the previous GS of htis season.
Anyway also Fenninger did good, and was the closer to Tina Maze, winner in Aspen's GS before she - Fenninger- felt down during the run2.
Tomorrow there will be a huge difference in the starting list between these two with Fenninger taking the start with the slope in perfect conditions as she's #1 and Zettel well behind and with a worse slope, as #14.
h2h Brignone - Karbon - pick Brignone 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Again picking the difference in the starting list: #2 Brignone, #20 Karbon.
Brignone couldn't finish both previous GS but from the super-combined came a decent result there hope she'll do better in this event, that is her speciality.
h2h Gagnon - Poutiainen - pick Gagnon 1 unit @2.10 Win +1.1
Here the starting bib is against my pick: #10 vs #22.
Gagnon, though, showed a great form and improvements, also trying new events like Super-G and combined.
I think that the final part, very flat, needs a good sensibility, that to me Gagnon has got, while Poutiainen is a bit too heavy and could get struck in it.
-1.9
Fenninger out in run1 can't be commented.
Brignone out in run2 wasn't impressing but neither too bad, just averaged, maybe under her standards... reportedly she's suffering some ankle injury that really annoys her and she can't train hard.
Good Gagnon still improving.
In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well inclined... strange comebacks in run2
Ladies Super-G - St.Moritz
H2H Fanchini - Cook - pick Fanchini 3 units @1.54 Lost -3
Fanchini made a good run yesterday, finishing in the top 15 in the Super-G run of the Super-Combined event.
Cook made not so good in the same event.
Here I also pick given the starting position of the two: Fanchini will be #27 while Cook #49, twenty number is a great difference and the condition of the slope will change in worse: there will create a channel, with a littel step that will made harder the way down and a loss of time if you can't follow that channel.
H2H Rolland - Smith - pick: Smith 2 units @2.11 Win +2.22
Pick already made in last Super-G, a week ago in Lake Louise, Canada.
Style motivation: Smith is a better in covering turns, while Rolland needs straight section where she can gain speed.
-0.78
Fanchini out, too faulty could be said; she can't find continuity in her results.
Right impression about Rolland: turns aren't good for her and she finish well behind.
Fanchini made a good run yesterday, finishing in the top 15 in the Super-G run of the Super-Combined event.
Cook made not so good in the same event.
Here I also pick given the starting position of the two: Fanchini will be #27 while Cook #49, twenty number is a great difference and the condition of the slope will change in worse: there will create a channel, with a littel step that will made harder the way down and a loss of time if you can't follow that channel.
H2H Rolland - Smith - pick: Smith 2 units @2.11 Win +2.22
Pick already made in last Super-G, a week ago in Lake Louise, Canada.
Style motivation: Smith is a better in covering turns, while Rolland needs straight section where she can gain speed.
-0.78
Fanchini out, too faulty could be said; she can't find continuity in her results.
Right impression about Rolland: turns aren't good for her and she finish well behind.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Ladies Super-Combined - St.Moritz
Pick: Zettel to podium 1 unit @6 win +5
(Sorry, odds from yesterday now it a bit lower).
Zettel is in a good form recently and can do well enough is Super-G, and then get a good number to start the slalom, where she's a specialist, with the slope in good conditions.
Actually Maze, Vonn and Hoefl-Riesch are favoured but possibly at least one can fail and Vonn and Riesch haven't impressed so far this season.
H2H Zettel - Hosp, pick Zettel 2 units @1.93 lost -2
(Sorry again)
Same motivations as before, Zettel form is better than Hosp's one.
Podium: Maze, Hosp, Zettel
+3
(Sorry, odds from yesterday now it a bit lower).
Zettel is in a good form recently and can do well enough is Super-G, and then get a good number to start the slalom, where she's a specialist, with the slope in good conditions.
Actually Maze, Vonn and Hoefl-Riesch are favoured but possibly at least one can fail and Vonn and Riesch haven't impressed so far this season.
H2H Zettel - Hosp, pick Zettel 2 units @1.93 lost -2
(Sorry again)
Same motivations as before, Zettel form is better than Hosp's one.
Podium: Maze, Hosp, Zettel
+3
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Alpine skiing world cup - an introduction
Not the gut to follow silly exibition or pictures from holidays or whatever...
The world of sport (and betting) goes on somewhere else.
Alpine skiing is one of my favourite sports, my favourite winter one, and I've always followed and watched it.
First, very simple, they start from "the top", go down the slope and cross the finish line. The one who's took less time to complete the way down wins.
But...
1a - On you're way down you must pass through "gates", meaning that both the skis must be on the same side of the gate - the right one.
1b - Not always you go down, take you're time, and it's done. Sometimes there's a second run to be done. And the sum of the times of both runs gives the total time, the smaller wins.
The 1b fact is because there are four event: Downhill, Super-G, Giant Slalom and Slalom. There are also Combined (Downhill + Slalom), Super-Combined (Super-G + Slalom) and City Event (on this there still be confusion and things to decide).
 |
| I don't know if it's clear the inclination |
It's the faster event, you just need to create speed, keeping an aerodynamic position.
It's very spectacular, with turns faced up at high speed, long jumps and also (sometimes terrible) accident.
They can reach 200 kph.
Before every official race there are time trial so you know the slope and all the most crucial points.
It's the longest event though, say over two minutes to complete the race.
There's no second run, after you've skied down and through every gate you've got your time and can wait for the other make their race.
Super-G is a mix of Downhill and Giant-Slalom.There are more turns, so the speed in lower than in the downhill.
Gates are at a bigger distance compared to Giant Slalom so in between the gates you increase your speed.
What makes Super-G particular is that there are no test before the race so you've go to "improvise".
Also here race are made only of one run.
Downhill and Super-G are "the fast disciplines" and usually athletes compete in both.
Giant Slalom is the mother of all disciplines, usually when you start skiing that's the one you're first introduced to.Gates are very close - from 30 to 20 meters - and every gates means a change of direction.
A race is made by two runs. At the end of Run1 the top 30 qualify for Run2.
In Run2 the starting order is reversed: first starting athlete is 30th place of Run1, then 29, 28... last to take the start is 1st place of Run1.
Slalom is the most technique event, a lot of gates - around 60 - in a short slope.There aren't high speeds but a great footwork is needed.
Turns aren't always left-right-left-right but there are tricks or "figures", as they're called, too.
Two runs with reversed order in the second one as said above.
Anyway at high level is difficult to be a top contender in all four, as you can imagine; so athletes are specialist of only one, max two disciplines.
 |
| This could give the size of each event. *DH = Downhill GS = Giant-Slalom SG = Super-G SL = Slalom |
Otherwise it would be hard, and esthetically embarassing - I assure you -, to see a downhill specialist in a slalom and the other way around; because different skills are required in every event.
To better understand, comparison with tennis could be very useful: the four specialities of alpine skiing could be thought as the four surfaces of tennis, then there's the tennis racket/skis comparison and other more specific.
More things to come about the standings, the starting list, and above all the odds and markets.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Week 44 Preview - Paris Bercy
Draw
The end is near - the end of the season.
Last Master1000 of the season before the World Tour Finals.
Then everyone can relax, go back home or to some Miami' beach or skydiving from monumental tower or kicking off football matches or... not, here's a nice guide to the offseason, seems a pretty busy one.
Federer decided to not take part of the tournament, after a full week in Basel he opted for break before the Finals. So the seeding loses his n.1.
#3 Murray and #5 Berdych are the ones to benefit the most form this choice.
The czech early won the title far in 2004, and is projected to play the R16 against #12 Gasquet, while the quarter final, now Federer-free, is open to many options: one of #15 Nishikori and Paire, or one of Baghdatis and Simon.
Murray has never won the title, and he's never showed himself indoor so far this season. The draw doesn't look very hard for him. R16 against Cilic (Murray leads 7-1 the h2h), even easier the QF supposedly againt Tipsarevic, though Melzer or Dimitrov and Dolgopolov could be some funny entries.
The other half looks locked by #2 Djokovic and #6 Tsonga.
#4 Ferrer has just won Valencia, and #7 Del Potro has done something even bigger winning back to back Vienna and Basel, he's also to play the Finals next week.
Also seeded here the two bomb-server Isner and Raonic, both very disappointing indoor so far, or disappointing far from America either.
I'm going to back Youzhny @210.
The draw is tough from the start, but opponents have got question marks all over as well.
First round against Granollers who wasn't in good conditions in Valencia, then Ferrer, Youzhny leads 4-3 the head to head, 3-1 indoor, round of 16 against Wawinka, Misha again leads, 3-2, no indoor, but Stan's indoor career record are about 50% winning, not a good one for a top player. Hope to cash out at QF level when Misha will face Tsonga.
Also good prices for Nishikori and Berdych.
The end is near - the end of the season.
Last Master1000 of the season before the World Tour Finals.
Then everyone can relax, go back home or to some Miami' beach or skydiving from monumental tower or kicking off football matches or... not, here's a nice guide to the offseason, seems a pretty busy one.
Federer decided to not take part of the tournament, after a full week in Basel he opted for break before the Finals. So the seeding loses his n.1.
#3 Murray and #5 Berdych are the ones to benefit the most form this choice.
The czech early won the title far in 2004, and is projected to play the R16 against #12 Gasquet, while the quarter final, now Federer-free, is open to many options: one of #15 Nishikori and Paire, or one of Baghdatis and Simon.
Murray has never won the title, and he's never showed himself indoor so far this season. The draw doesn't look very hard for him. R16 against Cilic (Murray leads 7-1 the h2h), even easier the QF supposedly againt Tipsarevic, though Melzer or Dimitrov and Dolgopolov could be some funny entries.
The other half looks locked by #2 Djokovic and #6 Tsonga.
#4 Ferrer has just won Valencia, and #7 Del Potro has done something even bigger winning back to back Vienna and Basel, he's also to play the Finals next week.
Also seeded here the two bomb-server Isner and Raonic, both very disappointing indoor so far, or disappointing far from America either.
I'm going to back Youzhny @210.
The draw is tough from the start, but opponents have got question marks all over as well.
First round against Granollers who wasn't in good conditions in Valencia, then Ferrer, Youzhny leads 4-3 the head to head, 3-1 indoor, round of 16 against Wawinka, Misha again leads, 3-2, no indoor, but Stan's indoor career record are about 50% winning, not a good one for a top player. Hope to cash out at QF level when Misha will face Tsonga.
Also good prices for Nishikori and Berdych.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
ATP Valencia picks
I'm very happy that the lay on Tsonga has already landed, although now I've got to find someone else to back or to lay.
No, I won't.
Every second round match looks tough and I can't find someone to trust or to distrust.
I've seen Ferrer in action ad he looked very similar to the one who lost the semifinal in Kuala Lumpur: many unforced errors, that are not in his style, and not running on every ball, also not in his style or at least in what he was early this season.
Lay Ferrer seems the best thing to do since he's not 100% fit, but on the other hand the draw isn't a tough one for him.
Today's picks.
Valencia
Still to play a couple of first round, I don't see problems coming for the two favoutites (Granollers and Raonic).
While I lean for all the underdogs in the three second rounds to be played today.
Isner - Goffin. 1-0 h2h.
Their first rounds have been much different, confortable win for Goffin, while Isner had big trouble from Fognini, the italian has also been a break up in the deciding set.
The so called indoor hardcourt isn't really fast, and this allow the rallies to go long. And on rally Goffin has got more chances to get the point.
There's also a "geographical motivation" as Isner hasn't got a great tradition in Europe (nevermind the surface), he hasn't got a great tradition out of the US as well.
No Tv coverage but to me it's a Lay Isner @1.33
Verdasco - Cilic. 5-3 h2h.
Here I'd go with the head to head and pick Verdasco, but I'll skip this. Also the over 22.5 is below the even, but to me it's the best thing to pick in this match.
Verdasco is having a good period, in this last part of the season, at least compared to his summer. He's much more combative.
Cilic won 2-1 against Klizan, this could be an indication of how Cilic deals with lefties, though usually he hasn't got much troubles with them.
Verdasco and Cilic have recently faced each other in Shanghai, resulting in a 2-1 win for the croatian.
Hewitt - Dodig. No h2h.
I've watched Hewitt's previous round and it was a tremendous vision. Both him and his opponent (Monaco) were very bad and there's been a great load of unforced errors.
Dodig has had a bad season, though here he seems to feel better, he confortably passed the qualies and then beated Kohlschreiber in the first round.
Odds going down for him, I managaed to pick something @2.06, I won't pick anything below the @1.90.
So for me is back Dodig @2.06. Given the bad stuff Hewitt did in the previous round.
Basel
I'll go short for this beacuse I don't like the odds.
Paire seems to have some problems with hardcourt, as if he need slower surfaces to play his tricks. A bit surprised by this though, since he's got a good serve. I don't give much chances to him against Seppi, the italian is well focused and has got good movement on this surface.
Less chances for Laaksonen against Mathieu and for Falla against Del Potro.
Matosevic is tempting me. He did not so bad in Vienna, here the courts should be slower though.
Still I don't like Mayer on fast courts for his swings that require time. He lost in the first round in Stockholm to Berankis.
Might be a tighter match than odds suggest.
No, I won't.
Every second round match looks tough and I can't find someone to trust or to distrust.
I've seen Ferrer in action ad he looked very similar to the one who lost the semifinal in Kuala Lumpur: many unforced errors, that are not in his style, and not running on every ball, also not in his style or at least in what he was early this season.
Lay Ferrer seems the best thing to do since he's not 100% fit, but on the other hand the draw isn't a tough one for him.
Today's picks.
Valencia
Still to play a couple of first round, I don't see problems coming for the two favoutites (Granollers and Raonic).
While I lean for all the underdogs in the three second rounds to be played today.
Isner - Goffin. 1-0 h2h.
Their first rounds have been much different, confortable win for Goffin, while Isner had big trouble from Fognini, the italian has also been a break up in the deciding set.
The so called indoor hardcourt isn't really fast, and this allow the rallies to go long. And on rally Goffin has got more chances to get the point.
There's also a "geographical motivation" as Isner hasn't got a great tradition in Europe (nevermind the surface), he hasn't got a great tradition out of the US as well.
No Tv coverage but to me it's a Lay Isner @1.33
Verdasco - Cilic. 5-3 h2h.
Here I'd go with the head to head and pick Verdasco, but I'll skip this. Also the over 22.5 is below the even, but to me it's the best thing to pick in this match.
Verdasco is having a good period, in this last part of the season, at least compared to his summer. He's much more combative.
Cilic won 2-1 against Klizan, this could be an indication of how Cilic deals with lefties, though usually he hasn't got much troubles with them.
Verdasco and Cilic have recently faced each other in Shanghai, resulting in a 2-1 win for the croatian.
Hewitt - Dodig. No h2h.
I've watched Hewitt's previous round and it was a tremendous vision. Both him and his opponent (Monaco) were very bad and there's been a great load of unforced errors.
Dodig has had a bad season, though here he seems to feel better, he confortably passed the qualies and then beated Kohlschreiber in the first round.
Odds going down for him, I managaed to pick something @2.06, I won't pick anything below the @1.90.
So for me is back Dodig @2.06. Given the bad stuff Hewitt did in the previous round.
Basel
I'll go short for this beacuse I don't like the odds.
Paire seems to have some problems with hardcourt, as if he need slower surfaces to play his tricks. A bit surprised by this though, since he's got a good serve. I don't give much chances to him against Seppi, the italian is well focused and has got good movement on this surface.
Less chances for Laaksonen against Mathieu and for Falla against Del Potro.
Matosevic is tempting me. He did not so bad in Vienna, here the courts should be slower though.
Still I don't like Mayer on fast courts for his swings that require time. He lost in the first round in Stockholm to Berankis.
Might be a tighter match than odds suggest.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
ATP Basel picks and WTA Championships Istanbul
WTA Championships Istanbul
Draw
The best 8 players of the season, and 4 double teams as well.
For the single there's a group stage, each player faces the other three, so three matches, top two of the group advance to the semifinal.
For the double there's only a knockout stage, starting from semifinal.
I don't think there will be big surprises for Serena is a step above, then Azarenka follows. Sharapova showed some troubles lately, in particular on her serve. Kvitova did very bad, my thought is that she was getting ready for this event and for the Fed Cup finals. She's a great server and can be unplayable if she's 100%, Kvitova won last year.
Today's matches don't offers much to try. Only Kvitova @1.65 against Radwanska looks tempting.
ATP Basel
I don't know how to handle Valencia's matches, the best thing that comes to me is to lay Tsonga against Malisse.
Things are a bit better in Basel.
Back Soeda @2.74. Bellucci lost awfully the final in Moscow, and I don't think he's going to forget that match easily: leading the first set, losing some intensity in the second set, but managing to serve for the match on the 5-4, broken, then breaking up again and again broken back. He failed to serve the match out twice.
Soeda is solid from both sides and sholud suffer too much Bellucci's left forehand, the surfaces should be faster than in Moscow and this won't advantage Bellucci.
Back Dimitrov @2.12. Both Dimitrov and Troicki aren't doing well but Troicki seems really awful losing a lot of 1st rounds. If he keeps playing far behind the baseline he won't have much chances to overpower Dimitrov's groundstrokes, and in this case Dimitrov will easily gain the court and playing offensively.
I also like the over 22.5 games in Wawrinka-Davydenko, a matter of stats I'd say, since Wawrinka is playng a lot of three setter recently and also in previus meeting against Davydenko there hasn't been a straight set win
Draw
The best 8 players of the season, and 4 double teams as well.
For the single there's a group stage, each player faces the other three, so three matches, top two of the group advance to the semifinal.
For the double there's only a knockout stage, starting from semifinal.
I don't think there will be big surprises for Serena is a step above, then Azarenka follows. Sharapova showed some troubles lately, in particular on her serve. Kvitova did very bad, my thought is that she was getting ready for this event and for the Fed Cup finals. She's a great server and can be unplayable if she's 100%, Kvitova won last year.
Today's matches don't offers much to try. Only Kvitova @1.65 against Radwanska looks tempting.
ATP Basel
I don't know how to handle Valencia's matches, the best thing that comes to me is to lay Tsonga against Malisse.
Things are a bit better in Basel.
Back Soeda @2.74. Bellucci lost awfully the final in Moscow, and I don't think he's going to forget that match easily: leading the first set, losing some intensity in the second set, but managing to serve for the match on the 5-4, broken, then breaking up again and again broken back. He failed to serve the match out twice.
Soeda is solid from both sides and sholud suffer too much Bellucci's left forehand, the surfaces should be faster than in Moscow and this won't advantage Bellucci.
Back Dimitrov @2.12. Both Dimitrov and Troicki aren't doing well but Troicki seems really awful losing a lot of 1st rounds. If he keeps playing far behind the baseline he won't have much chances to overpower Dimitrov's groundstrokes, and in this case Dimitrov will easily gain the court and playing offensively.
I also like the over 22.5 games in Wawrinka-Davydenko, a matter of stats I'd say, since Wawrinka is playng a lot of three setter recently and also in previus meeting against Davydenko there hasn't been a straight set win
Monday, October 22, 2012
Week 43
ATP500 Basel
Federer's home tournament, and where he's clearly favored. The swiss leads the seeding.
#2 to Del Potro, who's the most dangerous and has just won the title in Vienna's indoor. Early this year Federer - Del Potro has bee the final of Rotterdam indoor, Federer won 6-1 6-4-
Hard to see someone different from these two in the final, as other seeded player haven't got the heaviness of strokes or particular skills that suit to this surface, even though #3 Gasquet, #5 Seppi and #6 Youzhny have already won an indoor title this season, but the field of the participants were of much lower level.
I can see some early danger for #5 Seppi against Paire, for #7 Mayer against Matosevic, for #8 Troicki against Dimitrov.
ATP500 Valencia
Again a local leads the seeding, here's #1 Ferrer.
I won't make him a big favored though. If the courts aren't too slow, and also given that there are some big server, plus he has been injuired and conditions are unknown.
The biggest dangers are in the other half of the draw: #2 Tsonga, #5 Isner, #8 Raonic.
Ferrer is in the same quarter of #6 Almagro, then #7 Cilic or #4 Monaco for semifinal projection.
The real danger for Ferrer might come at quarterfinal height from Feliciano Lopez or Querrey, these two will face in the first round then there'll be Almagro for the second one.
Anyway I sense some kind of spanish farce.
The best thing that comes to mi mind is to lay Tsonga: he's played the final in Stockholm and has showed some problems in keeping the focus for a whole match, then he's got to defend many points in Bercy, he reached the final last year, while there's only a 2nd round here in Valencia.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
ATP / WTA Moscow and Luxembourg picks - tuesday
So many matches to study and so many matches at the same time as well, that is very difficult to work out something really good.
ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.
I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.
WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.
4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.
Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.
Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.
Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.
WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.
In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.
ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.
I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.
WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.
4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.
Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.
Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.
Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.
WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.
In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Week 42 - Preview
Oh, my count was wrong, this is the week n. 42, meaning that I've got it wrong... nevermind.
Again a busy week, but at least time zone will be more fair.
Three ATP an two WTA tournaments, Moskow is a combined event, all indoor.
ATP Stockholm
Draw
Tsonga makes #1, and Berdych #2 to replay Shanghai's quarterfinal. #3 Almagro has got a bye then a qualifier, and yet in QF he could have troubles given his negative record on indoor courts, whether his opponent was Hewitt, Anderson or Nieminen.
Some early tough tests for #6 Youzhny against Brian Baker and for #7 Baghdatis against Goffin.
Courts should be pretty fast so Tsonga is my favourite for this one. Good feeling for Nieminen with this tournament, runner-up against Monfils last year, and who appeared in good conditions in last indoor event in Bangkok .
ATP Vienna
Draw
#1 Del Potro makes his come back after a wrist injury that prevented him from playing his second single match of the Davis Cup semifinal.
I don't like him as indoor player, his powerful play makes him a good one though, and he has a spot in the final to defend in here.
Tipsarevic makes #2 still chasing poits to the Finals, and Haas #3 and who looked in great shape in Shanghai; they're in the same half of the draw.
Melzer is #4 seeded and home player, while #7 and #8 Paire and Malisse respectively are funny player to see.
Shocking first round matchup between #5 Fognini and Young. Although his terrible year (5 win, 25 loss) I've always thought Young to be a tricky indoor player, mostly with his forehand (he's leftie); Young made the final just one year ago in Bangkok.
Another (brain)shocking player in here is Gulbis, Dev Varman should be an easy first round but yet at the second there's Tipsarevic waiting for him. Depending on his lunacy this could be one of the few tournament he plays at his best and where he get enough poits to keep his rank up. Going through Tipsarevic will open the door to the semifinal given this is the Fognini/Young's quarter.
ATP Moscow
Draw
Pretty a bad draw, low quality I mean, in here. And given this is Moscow... you know what I mean.
#1 Dolgopolov is very funny, though he seems to need slower courts, his quarter is a tricky one as well.
The young rising talent Donskoy (6th on the Challenger Race) in the second round and #5 Davidenko projected for the quarter.
Seppi makes #2. His indoor skills are much better than the ones on outdoor hardcourt. He reached Metz finals couple of weeks ago.
On the same half there's #3 Troicki who's got points to defend: 2011 runner-up, 2010 winner as well.
WTA Moscow
Draw
Far better quality in this WTA draw compared to the ATP one.
#1 to Sam Stosur, who shocked the media-press (not me, I was expecting it as I wrote here in my last week preview) not winning the WTA of Osaka, even though there where no top-50 in last 8 and no top-60 in last 4. Anyway, I much doubt about her also in here, but for different reasons than tanking: the historical-statistical ones, in fact she plays very little indoor and also has a negative balance, 24/25; and the technical ones, although she's a great server (greatest kick-serve in WTA?), her backhand is far too week for this kind of courts, I can clearly see lots of backhand landing in the drives either because she hit the ball late or she rush to much attemping not to be late. Safarova's leftie forehand could be lethal for Sam.
#2 Bartoli is in the most competitive quarter of the draw. This the other first round down here: #7 Kirilenko, back from recent injuries, against Vesnina, Shvedova vs Pavlyuchenkova and Jovanovski vs Arvidsson, solid indoor, the winner of the latter will face Bartoli in second round.
Wozniacki #3 of the seeding, in Bartoli's half, and in #5 Cibulkova quarter. The slovak is the defending champions, she's very solid indoor due to her return skills using her opponents power for her own advantage. the first round against Makarova, leftie solid server and double player, is an hard test to prove her ability.
WTA Luxemburg
Draw
Vinci leads the seeding, while Linz's runner-up Goerges get #2. Being DecoTurf courts should be pretty slow.
A winner is much unpredictable being the field more or less on the same level including some unseeded.
Again a busy week, but at least time zone will be more fair.
Three ATP an two WTA tournaments, Moskow is a combined event, all indoor.
ATP Stockholm
Draw
Tsonga makes #1, and Berdych #2 to replay Shanghai's quarterfinal. #3 Almagro has got a bye then a qualifier, and yet in QF he could have troubles given his negative record on indoor courts, whether his opponent was Hewitt, Anderson or Nieminen.
Some early tough tests for #6 Youzhny against Brian Baker and for #7 Baghdatis against Goffin.
Courts should be pretty fast so Tsonga is my favourite for this one. Good feeling for Nieminen with this tournament, runner-up against Monfils last year, and who appeared in good conditions in last indoor event in Bangkok .
ATP Vienna
Draw
#1 Del Potro makes his come back after a wrist injury that prevented him from playing his second single match of the Davis Cup semifinal.
I don't like him as indoor player, his powerful play makes him a good one though, and he has a spot in the final to defend in here.
Tipsarevic makes #2 still chasing poits to the Finals, and Haas #3 and who looked in great shape in Shanghai; they're in the same half of the draw.
Melzer is #4 seeded and home player, while #7 and #8 Paire and Malisse respectively are funny player to see.
Shocking first round matchup between #5 Fognini and Young. Although his terrible year (5 win, 25 loss) I've always thought Young to be a tricky indoor player, mostly with his forehand (he's leftie); Young made the final just one year ago in Bangkok.
Another (brain)shocking player in here is Gulbis, Dev Varman should be an easy first round but yet at the second there's Tipsarevic waiting for him. Depending on his lunacy this could be one of the few tournament he plays at his best and where he get enough poits to keep his rank up. Going through Tipsarevic will open the door to the semifinal given this is the Fognini/Young's quarter.
ATP Moscow
Draw
Pretty a bad draw, low quality I mean, in here. And given this is Moscow... you know what I mean.
#1 Dolgopolov is very funny, though he seems to need slower courts, his quarter is a tricky one as well.
The young rising talent Donskoy (6th on the Challenger Race) in the second round and #5 Davidenko projected for the quarter.
Seppi makes #2. His indoor skills are much better than the ones on outdoor hardcourt. He reached Metz finals couple of weeks ago.
On the same half there's #3 Troicki who's got points to defend: 2011 runner-up, 2010 winner as well.
WTA Moscow
Draw
Far better quality in this WTA draw compared to the ATP one.
#1 to Sam Stosur, who shocked the media-press (not me, I was expecting it as I wrote here in my last week preview) not winning the WTA of Osaka, even though there where no top-50 in last 8 and no top-60 in last 4. Anyway, I much doubt about her also in here, but for different reasons than tanking: the historical-statistical ones, in fact she plays very little indoor and also has a negative balance, 24/25; and the technical ones, although she's a great server (greatest kick-serve in WTA?), her backhand is far too week for this kind of courts, I can clearly see lots of backhand landing in the drives either because she hit the ball late or she rush to much attemping not to be late. Safarova's leftie forehand could be lethal for Sam.
#2 Bartoli is in the most competitive quarter of the draw. This the other first round down here: #7 Kirilenko, back from recent injuries, against Vesnina, Shvedova vs Pavlyuchenkova and Jovanovski vs Arvidsson, solid indoor, the winner of the latter will face Bartoli in second round.
Wozniacki #3 of the seeding, in Bartoli's half, and in #5 Cibulkova quarter. The slovak is the defending champions, she's very solid indoor due to her return skills using her opponents power for her own advantage. the first round against Makarova, leftie solid server and double player, is an hard test to prove her ability.
WTA Luxemburg
Draw
Vinci leads the seeding, while Linz's runner-up Goerges get #2. Being DecoTurf courts should be pretty slow.
A winner is much unpredictable being the field more or less on the same level including some unseeded.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
WTA Linz pick - Semifinal
I'm going to give a chance to Flipkens, back @2.66.
Well, said like this looks like she hasn't any chance to win, while what I actually think is that she's got many, and that her recent form gives her many.
The belgian won 15 of her last 16 matches, losing only to Azarenka at the US Open, and already caught an indoor title in Quebec City.
I've only seen her 1st set against Ivanovic, so far this week.
It was somehow impressive: Ivanovic was playing well and looked confident like she hasn't been for much time, but yet Flipkens was there, close behind the serbian, and you hardly noticed her since she was silent and unshowy.
She's an all around player, not an hard hitter though. She'll cause trouble to Goerges in the same way she did yesterday to Ivanovic, making her move from side to side on the baseline, also pushing the german beyond the drive with the forehand. Both Goerges and Ivanovic have many problems about movements and balance.
Well, said like this looks like she hasn't any chance to win, while what I actually think is that she's got many, and that her recent form gives her many.
The belgian won 15 of her last 16 matches, losing only to Azarenka at the US Open, and already caught an indoor title in Quebec City.
I've only seen her 1st set against Ivanovic, so far this week.
It was somehow impressive: Ivanovic was playing well and looked confident like she hasn't been for much time, but yet Flipkens was there, close behind the serbian, and you hardly noticed her since she was silent and unshowy.
She's an all around player, not an hard hitter though. She'll cause trouble to Goerges in the same way she did yesterday to Ivanovic, making her move from side to side on the baseline, also pushing the german beyond the drive with the forehand. Both Goerges and Ivanovic have many problems about movements and balance.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
ATP Shanghai / WTA Linz picks - thursday
It's becoming very hard for me to find some proper pick in Shanghai.
Also today there are several underdogs that worth a try at a first glance, but then they all don't inspire much faith.
Name and shame:
Haas to beat Tipsarevic. What stops me from backing him, though, it's the physical condition that's too much in favour of the serbian. From the previuos head to head an Over looks good.
Stepanek to beat Isner. 2-1 the head to head for the czech. Step also played a great match against Gasquet. Over looks good here too.
Baghdatis to beat Tsonga. Here's theres a mix of reasons: 1) high odd (around @4 for Bagh), 2) Baghdatis is playing really really well, 3) Tsonga has also played the full previous week (might be tired?).
Querrey to beat Berdych. High odds for Querrey too, but it's the one that is dislike the most.
Verdasco to beat Cilic. Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, and I think they (bookies, markets etc...) sensed it and odds are lower than I expected. This could have been the pick of the day, shame.
WTA Linz
I haven't seen these two play in this tournament and I lean to pick Begu, odds lowered during the night. But I don't know Bertens very well, she's a rising young talent, defeated Barthel the previous round and has got nice indoor record, though Begu hits hard. Match without TV coverage, so I'll skip.
Surpisingly odds raised for Mattek-Sands. Now it definitely looks a good pick. Mattek did something very impressive against Paszek playing like I think you should play on this kind of surface: great serve, hitting winners (mainly with the forehand) or at least playing offensively putting pressure with hard and deep strokes and net approaches, she's got a great net coverage being a double player. Suarez-Navarro comes from the great run in Beijing, but here's the surfaces is different. I'll pick this: back Mattek.Sands @1.96
Don't know what to say abouth the other matchups.
Martic is crazy enuogh to waste this opportunity, not a great one though since likely she'll face Azarenka next round.
Petkovic might beat Ivanovic and same could do Burdette against Flipkens low confidence though, I'll wait the live.
Also today there are several underdogs that worth a try at a first glance, but then they all don't inspire much faith.
Name and shame:
Haas to beat Tipsarevic. What stops me from backing him, though, it's the physical condition that's too much in favour of the serbian. From the previuos head to head an Over looks good.
Stepanek to beat Isner. 2-1 the head to head for the czech. Step also played a great match against Gasquet. Over looks good here too.
Baghdatis to beat Tsonga. Here's theres a mix of reasons: 1) high odd (around @4 for Bagh), 2) Baghdatis is playing really really well, 3) Tsonga has also played the full previous week (might be tired?).
Querrey to beat Berdych. High odds for Querrey too, but it's the one that is dislike the most.
Verdasco to beat Cilic. Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, and I think they (bookies, markets etc...) sensed it and odds are lower than I expected. This could have been the pick of the day, shame.
WTA Linz
I haven't seen these two play in this tournament and I lean to pick Begu, odds lowered during the night. But I don't know Bertens very well, she's a rising young talent, defeated Barthel the previous round and has got nice indoor record, though Begu hits hard. Match without TV coverage, so I'll skip.
Surpisingly odds raised for Mattek-Sands. Now it definitely looks a good pick. Mattek did something very impressive against Paszek playing like I think you should play on this kind of surface: great serve, hitting winners (mainly with the forehand) or at least playing offensively putting pressure with hard and deep strokes and net approaches, she's got a great net coverage being a double player. Suarez-Navarro comes from the great run in Beijing, but here's the surfaces is different. I'll pick this: back Mattek.Sands @1.96
Don't know what to say abouth the other matchups.
Martic is crazy enuogh to waste this opportunity, not a great one though since likely she'll face Azarenka next round.
Petkovic might beat Ivanovic and same could do Burdette against Flipkens low confidence though, I'll wait the live.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
ATP Shanghai & WTA Linz picks
I'm not understanding much about Shanghai Master.
Everything, every match, looks normal and weird at the same time.
The impression is that nobody really cares about this tournament, above all the ones that must care (see Almagro and Monaco), and everyone would rather go back home or Europe as well. Same for Osaka WTA.
After this dutiful introduction, I'm going to say that also today I don't like most of the match, and even in the ones tempting me I won't try, at least pre-match.
Only one pick but with very low stake, since there isn't TV coverage: back Dolgopolov @2.3. If the ukranian is in one of his good days his lot of spins, pace variations and all oddities he's capable of might cause many trouble to Simon. The frenchman needs pace and to work on the baseline using opponent's stokes for his own purpose, returning ball that comes to him very different from each other doesn't suit to his style.
WTA Linz
Yesterday.
Martic played a good match yesterdays, and altough she wasn't able to detach her nerves kept the grip and won mostly with her serve. Not bad also from Cirstea, she only lost control after she got broken in the second set, many winners from her mostly with the forehand.
Another good match was the one between Mattek-Sands and Paszek. The american feels really good on this surfaces showing how you should play in indoor (the sort of transformation Tsonga does when he passes from hard-outdoor to indoor or grass), this is well supported by her skills of double player.
Solid serves, deepness from the baseline bringing her many winners, and great net coverage.
Today.
Should be an easy win for both Azarenka and Lisicki, more interesting the other matches.
Back Hradecka @2.02. Both Arvidsson and Hradecka are good indoor players and already reached a final (losing) early this year. I think the czech is the more complete one though, she's also a great double player, while the swedish has got a solid serve and a powerful forehand but lacks of agility angles and often also nerves.
I also lean, but won't try before seeing a bit the match, for lay Ivanovic @1.17 as she's got to think about the Fed Cup and her forehand could suffer Niculescu's forehand (sliced and tricky, forcing winners against it easily drives to errors); and for back Oprandi @3 as Goerges wasn't the same of Beijing and if Oprandi dropshots as she can the german might easily suffer for she's very bad in movements.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
WTA Linz picks
Usually first and second rounds are the best to find wrong odds, chances, to bet on, above all in bigger events where the field is wider, not this time though.
Still there are some odds tempting me, but I dare not a bet before monitoring the match.
These are the odds I'm pointing:
Back Falla to beat F. Lopez @2.9
Back Fognini to beat Baghdatis @3.5... this really huge, but there's to say that Baghdatis played well last week and Fognini is Fognini
Back Hewitt to beat Stepanek @2.44... the one that I'm more confident into, Hewitt leads 3-0 the h2h but above all it's the styles of these two that makes me lean for the aussie who will return every ball as usual and the surfaces fast, but not too much, should advantage Hewitt's running skills.
Then couple of Lay for favorite that could have more troubles than odds say:
Lay Simon @1.31
Lay Raonic @1.19
I'm not going to try anyone unless I've watched a bit the match.
Plenty of interesting matches in Linz.
Suarez Navarro just made a great run in Beijing, supsetting Kvitova and Jankovic, her hardcourt balance is still negative though, Rybarikova is solid on hard and hard-indoor as well, a 50-50 match up, where I'd lean for Rybarikova if odds will move toward and beyond @2.10
Flipkens showed her indoor skills in Quebec, she's through some hard qualies match though and Cornet is a tricky one, a mental tough match might advantage the french.
Wickmayer is in great difficult but seems bookies and market sensed it as Burdette in only @2.4.
Less than 40 matches as pro player for the american but her skills were showed at the US Open, from a bookmaker point of view I'd say that odds on Burdette are short.
I'm still waiting for Tsurenko outburst, she stunned me month ago in Fed Cup against Italy, then not good come from her.
Halep played a good match against Sharapova in Beijing, but maybe it was more Sharapova's bad day than a good match from Halep. She, although the chances came to her, hardly manage to close a point. And you'll pay this on hardcourts. In effect Halep is more a claycourter, while Tsurenko looks more at ease on hardcourts and on very fast one, like I think this is. Around @3.00 I feel like Tsurenk worth a try.
Goerges is a great candidate for the title if she keeps Beijing's shape.
Hantuchova hardly goes thruogh the first round recently.
I'm going to Back Goerges @1.68.
Tough one between Zahlavova.Strycova and Petkovic as the german struggles to find back the conditions while Barbora as lost hers after a good summer. The czech could also get a call for the Fed Cup and recently all the Czech are in bad shape maybe to concentrate more on the final.
Back Martic @2.32. Second and last pick of the day. I really like her and on this surfaces she could be very tricky
Still there are some odds tempting me, but I dare not a bet before monitoring the match.
These are the odds I'm pointing:
Back Falla to beat F. Lopez @2.9
Back Fognini to beat Baghdatis @3.5... this really huge, but there's to say that Baghdatis played well last week and Fognini is Fognini
Back Hewitt to beat Stepanek @2.44... the one that I'm more confident into, Hewitt leads 3-0 the h2h but above all it's the styles of these two that makes me lean for the aussie who will return every ball as usual and the surfaces fast, but not too much, should advantage Hewitt's running skills.
Then couple of Lay for favorite that could have more troubles than odds say:
Lay Simon @1.31
Lay Raonic @1.19
I'm not going to try anyone unless I've watched a bit the match.
Plenty of interesting matches in Linz.
Suarez Navarro just made a great run in Beijing, supsetting Kvitova and Jankovic, her hardcourt balance is still negative though, Rybarikova is solid on hard and hard-indoor as well, a 50-50 match up, where I'd lean for Rybarikova if odds will move toward and beyond @2.10
Flipkens showed her indoor skills in Quebec, she's through some hard qualies match though and Cornet is a tricky one, a mental tough match might advantage the french.
Wickmayer is in great difficult but seems bookies and market sensed it as Burdette in only @2.4.
Less than 40 matches as pro player for the american but her skills were showed at the US Open, from a bookmaker point of view I'd say that odds on Burdette are short.
I'm still waiting for Tsurenko outburst, she stunned me month ago in Fed Cup against Italy, then not good come from her.
Halep played a good match against Sharapova in Beijing, but maybe it was more Sharapova's bad day than a good match from Halep. She, although the chances came to her, hardly manage to close a point. And you'll pay this on hardcourts. In effect Halep is more a claycourter, while Tsurenko looks more at ease on hardcourts and on very fast one, like I think this is. Around @3.00 I feel like Tsurenk worth a try.
Goerges is a great candidate for the title if she keeps Beijing's shape.
Hantuchova hardly goes thruogh the first round recently.
I'm going to Back Goerges @1.68.
Tough one between Zahlavova.Strycova and Petkovic as the german struggles to find back the conditions while Barbora as lost hers after a good summer. The czech could also get a call for the Fed Cup and recently all the Czech are in bad shape maybe to concentrate more on the final.
Back Martic @2.32. Second and last pick of the day. I really like her and on this surfaces she could be very tricky
Monday, October 8, 2012
Week 42
A very busy week with the WTA circuit slowly coming back in Europe, while ATP is engaged in Shanghai with a Master 1000. Still hardcourt season.
WTA Osaka
Draw
#1 seeded is Sam Stosur, I've learned to distrust these too-much-favorite for the title, and in effect looks good for some outsider.
Great difference between top and bottom half: "heavyweights" hard-hitters in the top, claycourter or discontinuous player in bottom half.
I lean for #8 Robson, she's growing up very fast, touched the title in Guangzhou few weeks ago losing the final to Hsieh, the road doesn't look much tough: #3 McHale in the QF, but the american is a very bad shape, Stosur or #5 Shvedova in SF.
Hard to say who'll go through the bottom part, and even an unseeded can make it though the one should be among these three: Hercog, Watson, Giorgi. The first two will face in the first round, the winner will face Giorgi or #6 Medina Garrigues.
Hercog and Giorgi seldom bother too much but when they do are very dangerous for many opponents, while Watson is more consistent and nearly upsetted Sharapova in Tokyo, but lost to Giorgi last week, looks like an interesting threesome.
WTA Linz
Draw
Funny description of the court "Deco Turf on Wood" meaning that should be faster than normal hardcourts, it's indoor as well.
Then I wonder what's Azarenka doing here, fresh Beijing champion over Sharapova, that is more important that the title itself, solid WTA Ranking and WTA Finals Race lead.
So the battle for the title looks wide open to the field, made of sinking, rising and alternating players.
Safarova, Wickmayer and Lisicki hardly go through the first round in recent times, Ivanovic should be included though she plays some great matches where she looks like the Ivanovic n.1 WTA years ago, and matches where nothing work, serve and forehand in particular.
Cibulkova usually is good on fast surfaces and Goerges played her best tennis since lot of time last week.
ATP Shanghai Master 1000
Draw
I see a Murray - Djokovic issue here.
#2 Djokovic just beated easily Tsonga to win the title in Beijing, and the frenchman might be again Nole's opponent but in the semifinal. Tsonga or Berdych... doesn't make much difference as far the opponent hit the ball hard and Djokovic uses this in his own favor to overturn the rally.
#3 Murray played Tokyo too lazily, still giving the impression that he could outhit his opponent if he was in the fancy of doing it. He saved the more point possible and had an extra day of rest before Shanghai.
#1 Federer is in the same half of Murray.
I'm not a fan of big-odds Lay but I really feel like Lay Federer around 4.5 worth it.
The pression to still in the lead of the ranking, Murray as semifinalist, and the death threats inducing nerves stressed, less practicing.
WTA Osaka
Draw
#1 seeded is Sam Stosur, I've learned to distrust these too-much-favorite for the title, and in effect looks good for some outsider.
Great difference between top and bottom half: "heavyweights" hard-hitters in the top, claycourter or discontinuous player in bottom half.
I lean for #8 Robson, she's growing up very fast, touched the title in Guangzhou few weeks ago losing the final to Hsieh, the road doesn't look much tough: #3 McHale in the QF, but the american is a very bad shape, Stosur or #5 Shvedova in SF.
Hard to say who'll go through the bottom part, and even an unseeded can make it though the one should be among these three: Hercog, Watson, Giorgi. The first two will face in the first round, the winner will face Giorgi or #6 Medina Garrigues.
Hercog and Giorgi seldom bother too much but when they do are very dangerous for many opponents, while Watson is more consistent and nearly upsetted Sharapova in Tokyo, but lost to Giorgi last week, looks like an interesting threesome.
WTA Linz
Draw
Funny description of the court "Deco Turf on Wood" meaning that should be faster than normal hardcourts, it's indoor as well.
Then I wonder what's Azarenka doing here, fresh Beijing champion over Sharapova, that is more important that the title itself, solid WTA Ranking and WTA Finals Race lead.
So the battle for the title looks wide open to the field, made of sinking, rising and alternating players.
Safarova, Wickmayer and Lisicki hardly go through the first round in recent times, Ivanovic should be included though she plays some great matches where she looks like the Ivanovic n.1 WTA years ago, and matches where nothing work, serve and forehand in particular.
Cibulkova usually is good on fast surfaces and Goerges played her best tennis since lot of time last week.
ATP Shanghai Master 1000
Draw
I see a Murray - Djokovic issue here.
#2 Djokovic just beated easily Tsonga to win the title in Beijing, and the frenchman might be again Nole's opponent but in the semifinal. Tsonga or Berdych... doesn't make much difference as far the opponent hit the ball hard and Djokovic uses this in his own favor to overturn the rally.
#3 Murray played Tokyo too lazily, still giving the impression that he could outhit his opponent if he was in the fancy of doing it. He saved the more point possible and had an extra day of rest before Shanghai.
#1 Federer is in the same half of Murray.
I'm not a fan of big-odds Lay but I really feel like Lay Federer around 4.5 worth it.
The pression to still in the lead of the ranking, Murray as semifinalist, and the death threats inducing nerves stressed, less practicing.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
ATP/WTA picks thursday
It's been a couple of days that I'm not too inspired about pre-match pick, I'll post some thoughts in order to keep them in mind when action will start tomorrow as well.
Tokyo
I can't see much problems for Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych and Nishikori. I'd like to put Raonic in that list since his opponent is Troicki, though I've found some difficulties for Raonic to play against players who stands well back the baseline.
The ones that worth a try are Baghdatis and Ito.
A Back @2.60 seems very good. Bagh is very good on hardcourts and although Monaco won in Kuala Lumpur his strokes are a bit too rounded and Bagh might easily gain the baseline and even step in the court.
Ito is a tricky player on this surface, he's ranked 7th in Challenger Tour Finals Race this season, building his rank mostly (only) on hardcourts. Tursunov came thruogh the qualies but Petzschner and Tomic can't be considered relevant test recently, still he won a challenger couple of week ago. Back price near @3 for Ito seems a relevant one as odds mainly are made with the ranking (66 Ito, 117 Tursunov), then upsetting a top player usually makes odds lower.
Beijing ATP
Seems all written in here, odds not worth a try for me though.
Youznhy to beat Anderson... Misha's playing well, also won their only head to head in Toronto. Skip it since is too early in the morning so no live.
Gasquet over the young local, not even a good one from what I saw in his first round.
Lopez might have some troubles.
Querrey should beat Seppi easily since the american is good on hard while Seppi himself said he hate this very kind of hardcourt.
Beijing WTA
Looks easy also for ladies.
Kerber - Woznicki the most interesting match up.
I don't like it too much but for me is a Back Kerber @1.61.
The german's won last two matches, both played after the change of style Kerber did passing from being offensive to defensive.
Tokyo
I can't see much problems for Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych and Nishikori. I'd like to put Raonic in that list since his opponent is Troicki, though I've found some difficulties for Raonic to play against players who stands well back the baseline.
The ones that worth a try are Baghdatis and Ito.
A Back @2.60 seems very good. Bagh is very good on hardcourts and although Monaco won in Kuala Lumpur his strokes are a bit too rounded and Bagh might easily gain the baseline and even step in the court.
Ito is a tricky player on this surface, he's ranked 7th in Challenger Tour Finals Race this season, building his rank mostly (only) on hardcourts. Tursunov came thruogh the qualies but Petzschner and Tomic can't be considered relevant test recently, still he won a challenger couple of week ago. Back price near @3 for Ito seems a relevant one as odds mainly are made with the ranking (66 Ito, 117 Tursunov), then upsetting a top player usually makes odds lower.
Beijing ATP
Seems all written in here, odds not worth a try for me though.
Youznhy to beat Anderson... Misha's playing well, also won their only head to head in Toronto. Skip it since is too early in the morning so no live.
Gasquet over the young local, not even a good one from what I saw in his first round.
Lopez might have some troubles.
Querrey should beat Seppi easily since the american is good on hard while Seppi himself said he hate this very kind of hardcourt.
Beijing WTA
Looks easy also for ladies.
Kerber - Woznicki the most interesting match up.
I don't like it too much but for me is a Back Kerber @1.61.
The german's won last two matches, both played after the change of style Kerber did passing from being offensive to defensive.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Week 41 - ATP draws and picks
So two 500 tournaments this week.
Both surface are hard outdoor and look slow.
China Open:
Draw
Big names here with #1 Djokovic and #2 Ferrer.
#3 Tsonga, in the bottom half, #4 Cilic, top half, #5 Gasquet, in the same quarter of Cilic, all chasing big points to get a spot in the World Tour Finals; and all of them showing a great shape recently (title for Tsonga in Metz, and for Gasquet in Bangkok, good run for Cilic at the US Open).
I don't think Djokovic will give up easily, and the draw also looks an easy one, though a lay under the even may worth a try.
Ferrer, who showed a bad shape in Kuala Lumpur, has a tricky draw as well: Lu is a good hard courter, also a 2nd round derby against Feliciano Lopez will be tough (8-7 head to head in Ferrer's favour, and form my point of view Lopez owe something to Ferrer for their last match in Barcellona), even tougher QF in the case Querrey defeated #8 Verdasco in R1 (not at all surprisingly Querrey opened as favored).
To me all Tsonga, Haas, Cilic and Gasquet looks good in case of a bad shape of the first two seeded.
Japan Open:
Draw.
#1 seeded is Andy Murray here, followed by World Tours Finals chaser, named Berdych #2, Tipsarevic #3, Monaco #4 and Almagro #5.
Berdych for what he's showed recently, also in Davis Cup, has a great chance to get at least the final: Nishikori in QF and Almagro or Monaco in SF are too soft for him. Backing over @4 might be a good thing to do.
Difficult to see an outsider, Raonic is perfect for this role but always fail to mantain the promises.
Picks
Back Baker @2.62: too solid player for Anderson, whose serve also is not that dangerous on not that fast surfaces, Baker did well in the qualies.
Back Zhang @2.24: I don't know this two young chinese but Zhang leads 5-2 the head to heads.
Lay Wozniacki @1.14: Woz played two intense weeks, might be not fully fit.
Both surface are hard outdoor and look slow.
China Open:
Draw
Big names here with #1 Djokovic and #2 Ferrer.
#3 Tsonga, in the bottom half, #4 Cilic, top half, #5 Gasquet, in the same quarter of Cilic, all chasing big points to get a spot in the World Tour Finals; and all of them showing a great shape recently (title for Tsonga in Metz, and for Gasquet in Bangkok, good run for Cilic at the US Open).
I don't think Djokovic will give up easily, and the draw also looks an easy one, though a lay under the even may worth a try.
Ferrer, who showed a bad shape in Kuala Lumpur, has a tricky draw as well: Lu is a good hard courter, also a 2nd round derby against Feliciano Lopez will be tough (8-7 head to head in Ferrer's favour, and form my point of view Lopez owe something to Ferrer for their last match in Barcellona), even tougher QF in the case Querrey defeated #8 Verdasco in R1 (not at all surprisingly Querrey opened as favored).
To me all Tsonga, Haas, Cilic and Gasquet looks good in case of a bad shape of the first two seeded.
Japan Open:
Draw.
#1 seeded is Andy Murray here, followed by World Tours Finals chaser, named Berdych #2, Tipsarevic #3, Monaco #4 and Almagro #5.
Berdych for what he's showed recently, also in Davis Cup, has a great chance to get at least the final: Nishikori in QF and Almagro or Monaco in SF are too soft for him. Backing over @4 might be a good thing to do.
Difficult to see an outsider, Raonic is perfect for this role but always fail to mantain the promises.
Picks
Back Baker @2.62: too solid player for Anderson, whose serve also is not that dangerous on not that fast surfaces, Baker did well in the qualies.
Back Zhang @2.24: I don't know this two young chinese but Zhang leads 5-2 the head to heads.
Lay Wozniacki @1.14: Woz played two intense weeks, might be not fully fit.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Week 41 - WTA/ATP picks
Busy week to come with two ATP 500 and the second WTA major in a row.
WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.
Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).
... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66 : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters.
ATP draws next days.
But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.
Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'.
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.
WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.
Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).
... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66 : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters.
ATP draws next days.
But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.
Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'.
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Tokyo WTA 1R
One lone bet as there will be few first round for the ATP
T. Paszek - C. Giorgi: Giorgi 2 units @2.61
Giorgi came thruogh two hard round of the qualies so has had a good practice on these courts.
Her game as I've already said really suits to this kind of surfaces and she could be very dangerous even for top players, if only she manage to settle her nerves.
She's an hard hitter and huge server. From steady on the center of the baseline she delivers deep and hard to both sides.
Paszek is having a bad season, she's in a negative run on hardcourt with 6/12 W/L and in overall too 16/23.
There are couple of match with interesting odds which I won't risk though.
Schiavone @3.30 for example. Shvedova is one of my favourite in the WTA one of the most technically complete, being also a good double player, that plays aggressively from the baseline trying to win the point as soon as possible often approaching the net.
She can suddenly lose the tension and start playing bad, though, since her game is very wasteful from a nerves point of view so Schiavone, a mentally tough player, could exploit this moments.
The italian seems to have lost her better shape though and hasn't had a great record on hard so far in this season, her styles is not that bad also on hard and maybe she doesn't deserve such an odd, but I'll skip.
Also the odds on Jovanovski look huge, Wozniacki has won a title after a whole year but that was her level, her true level, which is also becoming the level of Bojana.
The serbian girl is not one that got scared from tough match and her game is not so risky to make Wozniacki sure to win this simply returning everything up to an opponent's unforced.
T. Paszek - C. Giorgi: Giorgi 2 units @2.61
Giorgi came thruogh two hard round of the qualies so has had a good practice on these courts.
Her game as I've already said really suits to this kind of surfaces and she could be very dangerous even for top players, if only she manage to settle her nerves.
She's an hard hitter and huge server. From steady on the center of the baseline she delivers deep and hard to both sides.
Paszek is having a bad season, she's in a negative run on hardcourt with 6/12 W/L and in overall too 16/23.
There are couple of match with interesting odds which I won't risk though.
Schiavone @3.30 for example. Shvedova is one of my favourite in the WTA one of the most technically complete, being also a good double player, that plays aggressively from the baseline trying to win the point as soon as possible often approaching the net.
She can suddenly lose the tension and start playing bad, though, since her game is very wasteful from a nerves point of view so Schiavone, a mentally tough player, could exploit this moments.
The italian seems to have lost her better shape though and hasn't had a great record on hard so far in this season, her styles is not that bad also on hard and maybe she doesn't deserve such an odd, but I'll skip.
Also the odds on Jovanovski look huge, Wozniacki has won a title after a whole year but that was her level, her true level, which is also becoming the level of Bojana.
The serbian girl is not one that got scared from tough match and her game is not so risky to make Wozniacki sure to win this simply returning everything up to an opponent's unforced.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Week 40 loading
Finally back and in full capacity.
WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.
Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.
Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.
Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned
At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).
The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.
So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.
Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.
Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).
Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.
Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:
M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.
Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.
-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.
WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.
Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.
Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.
Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned
At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).
The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.
So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.
Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.
Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).
Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.
Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:
M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.
Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.
-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
ATP St. Petersbourg
2 pick from this tournament... I still have PC problem and I won't be able to see any match.
M. Youzhny (-1.5 Sets) - V. Pospisil ( 1.5 Sets): Youzhny (-1.5) sets 3 units @1.55
I can't see anything but a 2-0 win for the russian.
Pospisil is just back from Canada where he played the Davis Cup, so maybe also a bit of jet-leg.
+1.65
7-6(4) 6-1 with more sufference than expected, since Pospisil broke back in the first, I haven't watched that though.
I was on a double in Metz: Herbert/Olivetti v Butorac/Peers.
The rapidity of the court makes it difficult to break the serve although the french pair would have done much worse. Olivetti looked much more a double player and his bomb-serve makes the most of the task, Herbert was the weak link, looking like a single player borrowed: broken in the first set and mini-broken in the tie-break, points that mead the difference.
The two though where not sincronized on the court, sometimes not calling the ball each other, or interfering - couple of times Herbert intercepted when he didn't, and didn't intercept when needed.
The US/Aussie double were much more a team greater skill at the net and never suffering when serving.
M. Youzhny (-1.5 Sets) - V. Pospisil ( 1.5 Sets): Youzhny (-1.5) sets 3 units @1.55
I can't see anything but a 2-0 win for the russian.
Pospisil is just back from Canada where he played the Davis Cup, so maybe also a bit of jet-leg.
+1.65
7-6(4) 6-1 with more sufference than expected, since Pospisil broke back in the first, I haven't watched that though.
I was on a double in Metz: Herbert/Olivetti v Butorac/Peers.
The rapidity of the court makes it difficult to break the serve although the french pair would have done much worse. Olivetti looked much more a double player and his bomb-serve makes the most of the task, Herbert was the weak link, looking like a single player borrowed: broken in the first set and mini-broken in the tie-break, points that mead the difference.
The two though where not sincronized on the court, sometimes not calling the ball each other, or interfering - couple of times Herbert intercepted when he didn't, and didn't intercept when needed.
The US/Aussie double were much more a team greater skill at the net and never suffering when serving.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Week 39 loading
Back with some ATP and WTA.
Ladies moving deeper in Asia, after Tashkent there will be two tournaments on the hard outdoor.
Korea Open, in Seul. Draw
Guangzhou International Women's Open. Draw
Little Indoor break for the ATP with two 250 tournaments before going to Asia
Moselle Open, Metz. Draw
St.Petersbourg Open. Draw
And an important challenger in Szczecin, Poland for claycourt nostalgic. Draw
Korea Open:
Some interesting name as Caroline Wozniacki, no more a top 10, who leads the seeding getting the #1 and Maria Kirilenko as #2 playing here.
This is a very open field with some of the bomb-server as #5 Goerges and #4 Petrova, but also open to some unseeded surprises such as Paszek and 2011 finalist and winner Voskoboeva and Martinez-Sanchez, or Giorgi and Hercog that hava to upset #6 Lepchenko and #8 Makarova at the first round.
Very hard to say who's favourite here, I don't trust Wozniacki, Kirilenko seems strong and is having a great season, but she can lose suddenly, even though she's looked solid in previous matches.
Guangzhou:
Bartoli is #1 as she's now 10 in WTA, and the wide gap between her and the #2 seed Zheng (23 WTA) makes the french clear favored to the title.
Surface's slight differences should suit to some Tashkent's upsets like Niculescu, Cornet and Urszula Radwanska, here the court should be slower and with higher bounces and the defensive game of these three should work better.
Moselle Open:
Decent quality in this.
Tsonga #1 (also 2011 winner) wide favored and without great problem up to the final: #6 Nieminen in his quarter and #3 Granollers (back from the Davis Cup on clay) or #8 Davidenko in the semi.
More interesting the bottom half, and in particular the bottom quarter, where #7 Monfils will make his come back after almost 5 months, Rochus to handle at the first round is a great test, 3-3 the head to head. In the same quarter there's #2 Kohlschreiber, and what should be a must-to-see match: Paire-Malisse.
St.Petersbourg:
Low quality in this, though the #1 Youzhny is not one who inspires blind trust so many possibilities for some young who are doing a great season and improving their ranking like Klizan, Zopp, or even Istomin (who would have thought it? he's #2) or (I'd love it) Petzschner.
Today, R1 in Moselle Open:
Albano Olivetti - James Blake: Olivetti 3 units @2.45 -3
A huge value in it.
The first time I've seen this young frenchmen playing was in february, an indoor open in Marseille.
As unknown Olivetti started from qualies and reached the quarter-final losing to Llodra a very tight match.
He's a very solid server and plays serve and volley, on very fast court he can be very dangerous.
No wonder he has a 69/48 record on indoor, while Blake is 65/50, with an age difference of 12 years.
Ladies moving deeper in Asia, after Tashkent there will be two tournaments on the hard outdoor.
Korea Open, in Seul. Draw
Guangzhou International Women's Open. Draw
Little Indoor break for the ATP with two 250 tournaments before going to Asia
Moselle Open, Metz. Draw
St.Petersbourg Open. Draw
And an important challenger in Szczecin, Poland for claycourt nostalgic. Draw
Korea Open:
Some interesting name as Caroline Wozniacki, no more a top 10, who leads the seeding getting the #1 and Maria Kirilenko as #2 playing here.
This is a very open field with some of the bomb-server as #5 Goerges and #4 Petrova, but also open to some unseeded surprises such as Paszek and 2011 finalist and winner Voskoboeva and Martinez-Sanchez, or Giorgi and Hercog that hava to upset #6 Lepchenko and #8 Makarova at the first round.
Very hard to say who's favourite here, I don't trust Wozniacki, Kirilenko seems strong and is having a great season, but she can lose suddenly, even though she's looked solid in previous matches.
Guangzhou:
Bartoli is #1 as she's now 10 in WTA, and the wide gap between her and the #2 seed Zheng (23 WTA) makes the french clear favored to the title.
Surface's slight differences should suit to some Tashkent's upsets like Niculescu, Cornet and Urszula Radwanska, here the court should be slower and with higher bounces and the defensive game of these three should work better.
Moselle Open:
Decent quality in this.
Tsonga #1 (also 2011 winner) wide favored and without great problem up to the final: #6 Nieminen in his quarter and #3 Granollers (back from the Davis Cup on clay) or #8 Davidenko in the semi.
More interesting the bottom half, and in particular the bottom quarter, where #7 Monfils will make his come back after almost 5 months, Rochus to handle at the first round is a great test, 3-3 the head to head. In the same quarter there's #2 Kohlschreiber, and what should be a must-to-see match: Paire-Malisse.
St.Petersbourg:
Low quality in this, though the #1 Youzhny is not one who inspires blind trust so many possibilities for some young who are doing a great season and improving their ranking like Klizan, Zopp, or even Istomin (who would have thought it? he's #2) or (I'd love it) Petzschner.
Today, R1 in Moselle Open:
Albano Olivetti - James Blake: Olivetti 3 units @2.45 -3
A huge value in it.
The first time I've seen this young frenchmen playing was in february, an indoor open in Marseille.
As unknown Olivetti started from qualies and reached the quarter-final losing to Llodra a very tight match.
He's a very solid server and plays serve and volley, on very fast court he can be very dangerous.
No wonder he has a 69/48 record on indoor, while Blake is 65/50, with an age difference of 12 years.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
WTA
Some problems with the PC so I can't see any match and so I did yesterday.
I'll be short.
Petra Martic - A Tatishvili: Martic 3 units @2.10 -3
Picked yesterday, and haven't seen this will be played today, so odds on Martic have lowered.
Martic is a very funny player, she's something similar to Dolgopolov.
She also serve very solid for WTA standards, 7 aces 1 int first round, 1 ace for Tatishvili.
The odd looks influenced by the ranking and even more by the medical time out called by Martic near the end of her match against Pegula. Maybe her right shoulder really hurts, but after the mto she broke back and won the match, she had a day-off and the possibility to recover.
G Voskoboeva - Irina Begu: pick Begu 2 units @2.25 +2.5
I've watched Begu against Amanmuradova, a high tempo match were both played well and couldn't allow the opponents to gain too much advantage, because this surface is very fast and it's easier also for women to hold the serve.
Surprised that Begu defeated Cornet, so I think she's in a good shape and her nerves holding on, this surface seems to suit her powerful strokes.
A double of favourites that I can't see losing today.
U.Radwanska @1.33
Jovanovski @1.61
Double 2 units @2.15 -2
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: Brkic 1 unit @5.00 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: set betting 2-1 1 unit @4.00 -1
Againg I'll go against the two-titles-in-a-row Haider-Maurer, Brkic already won as underdog in the previous round
I'll be short.
Petra Martic - A Tatishvili: Martic 3 units @2.10 -3
Picked yesterday, and haven't seen this will be played today, so odds on Martic have lowered.
Martic is a very funny player, she's something similar to Dolgopolov.
She also serve very solid for WTA standards, 7 aces 1 int first round, 1 ace for Tatishvili.
The odd looks influenced by the ranking and even more by the medical time out called by Martic near the end of her match against Pegula. Maybe her right shoulder really hurts, but after the mto she broke back and won the match, she had a day-off and the possibility to recover.
G Voskoboeva - Irina Begu: pick Begu 2 units @2.25 +2.5
I've watched Begu against Amanmuradova, a high tempo match were both played well and couldn't allow the opponents to gain too much advantage, because this surface is very fast and it's easier also for women to hold the serve.
Surprised that Begu defeated Cornet, so I think she's in a good shape and her nerves holding on, this surface seems to suit her powerful strokes.
A double of favourites that I can't see losing today.
U.Radwanska @1.33
Jovanovski @1.61
Double 2 units @2.15 -2
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: Brkic 1 unit @5.00 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: set betting 2-1 1 unit @4.00 -1
Againg I'll go against the two-titles-in-a-row Haider-Maurer, Brkic already won as underdog in the previous round
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
WTA - Challenger
Only small pick today, from Banja Luka and Todi:
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): Krajinovic 1 unit @3.75 +2.75
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): set betting 2-1 1 unit@3.75 -1
Following the "Tommasi Rule" I'll bets against recent Brasov runner up.
After a whole week of matches, including a great nerves tension for a final, Ungur could suffer a lows of foucus.
His opponent even if not as good as Ungur could at least take a set.
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur: Dzumhur 1 unit @3.50 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur set betting 2-1 1 unit @3.75 -1
Same reasons of the previous pick.
Haider-Maurer is coming from 2 whole week, winning two titles in a row.
Kamil Capkovic - Tomislav Brkic (BIH): Brkic 1 unit @2.20 +1.2
Given that ther are about 200 places between them in the ranking this odds is a bit small.
Maybe they've noticed that 1/11 records on clay for Capkovic, I've seen him at the first round of Genova Challenger last week and he showed he's a very bad claycourter as he can't bear long rallies and get rid of the rally shooting far wide.
+0.95
Watched the whole Knapp def [1]Niculescu 2-6 6-3 7-5.
Very nervy match, in the last set there was in the air the same tension felt for Sharapova - Azarenka at the USO, both tired but unwilling to lose, with Niculescu breaking Knapp serving for the match, but then giving up.
The match has developed on one scheme that had little variation following the player who held the momentum: Niculescu playing smartly defensively and containing Knapp hard hits.
Niculescu though looks like one of the finest wrist in WTA, she plays a nice scliced forehand, mostly side-spinned, with low bounces; excellent also in volleying, and having played very few of them seems her major fault in this loss.
Her weak point is the second serve (nothing relevant the first, still decent): very slow and always attacked by Knapp.
The easy first set was due to many errors by Knapp, maybe recorded as unforced but I'll call them forced since returning those sliced balls is great effort and it's easier to lose those point than to find a winner.
Then Niculescu lower her level, maybe a low shape since she played 4 matches since june, and Knapp raised hers with less forehand errors and more convinction on the return.
Knapp adjusted her footwork and played more on the backhand cross were she was more solid, more focused than most of her match.
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): Krajinovic 1 unit @3.75 +2.75
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): set betting 2-1 1 unit@3.75 -1
Following the "Tommasi Rule" I'll bets against recent Brasov runner up.
After a whole week of matches, including a great nerves tension for a final, Ungur could suffer a lows of foucus.
His opponent even if not as good as Ungur could at least take a set.
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur: Dzumhur 1 unit @3.50 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur set betting 2-1 1 unit @3.75 -1
Same reasons of the previous pick.
Haider-Maurer is coming from 2 whole week, winning two titles in a row.
Kamil Capkovic - Tomislav Brkic (BIH): Brkic 1 unit @2.20 +1.2
Given that ther are about 200 places between them in the ranking this odds is a bit small.
Maybe they've noticed that 1/11 records on clay for Capkovic, I've seen him at the first round of Genova Challenger last week and he showed he's a very bad claycourter as he can't bear long rallies and get rid of the rally shooting far wide.
+0.95
Watched the whole Knapp def [1]Niculescu 2-6 6-3 7-5.
Very nervy match, in the last set there was in the air the same tension felt for Sharapova - Azarenka at the USO, both tired but unwilling to lose, with Niculescu breaking Knapp serving for the match, but then giving up.
The match has developed on one scheme that had little variation following the player who held the momentum: Niculescu playing smartly defensively and containing Knapp hard hits.
Niculescu though looks like one of the finest wrist in WTA, she plays a nice scliced forehand, mostly side-spinned, with low bounces; excellent also in volleying, and having played very few of them seems her major fault in this loss.
Her weak point is the second serve (nothing relevant the first, still decent): very slow and always attacked by Knapp.
The easy first set was due to many errors by Knapp, maybe recorded as unforced but I'll call them forced since returning those sliced balls is great effort and it's easier to lose those point than to find a winner.
Then Niculescu lower her level, maybe a low shape since she played 4 matches since june, and Knapp raised hers with less forehand errors and more convinction on the return.
Knapp adjusted her footwork and played more on the backhand cross were she was more solid, more focused than most of her match.
Monday, September 10, 2012
This week...
This week tournaments draws:
(Ladies first)
WTA Quebec City, hard indoor: http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/656/MDS.pdf
WTA Tashkent, hard (outdoor): http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/825/MDS.pdf
ATP Challengers:
Banja Luka, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1607/mds.pdf
Todi, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/3627/mds.pdf
Petange, hard: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6592/mds.pdf
Starting from Todi, nearest to my last experience, I dare say [1] Lorenzi upsetted in the first round last week and [2]Volandri shouldn't have great problem to make their way up to the final.
Volandri was terrific last week and it's still a mistery how Montanes defeated him, though Montanes won the title beating also Robredo in the final.
Less to say about Lorenzi, who lost to Dustin Brown after being 5-2 up in both sets.
Possible dark horses:
[3]Ungur stylish clay-courter but as runner-up in Brasov I think he could pay for his efforts, a small bet against him yet in the first round is very tempting.
[4]Kuznetsov young talented, I'll keep an eye on him since I've never seen him playing.
[7]Giannessi, in the same quarter of Ungur, has a great chance to get at least a semifinal spot, while [8]Meffert is on upset alert yet in the second round, were he could face Naso who's in a good period, the two of them met just last week with Naso winning in straight sets.
Banja Luka:
I little trust that part of the world, and I little trust [2]Phau.
My favors go to [1] Kavcic.
[7]Haider-Maurer on early upset alert after two titles in a row last two weeks.
Petange:
This is the most interesting Challenger of the week, with better ranked players preparing the asian hard-court season.
[1]Muller left-handed big server and also local player is the clear favored.
Great talents in the same half [2]Zopp and [3]Berankis.
But if Zopp has some easy round up to the semifinal, I don't consider Zeballos[6] a great danger;
Berankis got the worst draw, de Scheeper at the first round, Hernych at the second, Serra, Mathieu or the young talented Hebert in the quarterfinal.
Tashkent:
Hard first round for [1]Nicolescu facing Knapp, Mestre's ITF winner last week. The post-injury Knapp doesn't give her best on hardcourt and rarely plays on it though.
[6]Jovanovski as my dark horse here.
Quebec City:
Interesting tournament also this one, played on indoor carpet, including n.14 WTA Cibulkova as #1
and Wickmayer as #2, and also unseeded players of high level.
Many good first round as as also #1 and 2 had alredy lost from their opponent Flipkens and Riske rispectively.
[5]Oprandi on upset alert facing young Annika Beck, great results at Junior level.
On a very fast court ther could be a good result for Barthel[3], solid server, after a season below the expectations, Zahalavova-Strycova[6] in Barthel's quarter could have trouble to play her dropshots, and other spins.
Also expecting something from [7]Martic, avoiding a first round against Giorgi who withdrew, she'll now play a qualifier. Her quarter is the same of Cibulkova but if Petra plays as she can also Cibu's defense could suffer to hit back balls with not the same spin for two times in a row.
R Oprandi - Annika Beck: Beck 4 units @2.37 +5.48
Beck can hit the ball very hard and also serve fast, indoor she could do very well.
No wonder she's already 16/3 indoor this season and has recorded more matches than Oprandi on this surface.
Nielsen - Eysseric: Eysseric 1 unit @2.25 -1
Small bet as I do't know them, but Nielsen usually plays only in doubles and in effect they've got similar ranking thuogh Eysseric is much younger.
de Schepper - Berankis: de Schepper 1 unit @2.75 -1
Small bet because Kenny's a good server but Berankis is raising his level recently.
+3.48
Impressive stuff for Beck. 6-1 7-6(11) the score. For two times she went to serve for the match (on the 5-4, and 6-5) than had 6 match points before the good one in the tie-break, also Oprandi dropped a set point.
Beck looks solid on both side, better on the forehand as she also turn around the ball instead of hitting the backhand. She hammers from the baseline but lacks of winning strokes, so she has to make her opponents run from side or push her far back the baseline. A bit insecure when she's at the net, her wrist is not so still and soft to play volleys or dropshot, similar to Sharapova.
Easy one fore Berankis, 6-4 6-2; while Eysseric went a set up but Nielsen came back and won, 3-6 6-4 6-1 .
(Ladies first)
WTA Quebec City, hard indoor: http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/656/MDS.pdf
WTA Tashkent, hard (outdoor): http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/825/MDS.pdf
ATP Challengers:
Banja Luka, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1607/mds.pdf
Todi, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/3627/mds.pdf
Petange, hard: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6592/mds.pdf
Starting from Todi, nearest to my last experience, I dare say [1] Lorenzi upsetted in the first round last week and [2]Volandri shouldn't have great problem to make their way up to the final.
Volandri was terrific last week and it's still a mistery how Montanes defeated him, though Montanes won the title beating also Robredo in the final.
Less to say about Lorenzi, who lost to Dustin Brown after being 5-2 up in both sets.
Possible dark horses:
[3]Ungur stylish clay-courter but as runner-up in Brasov I think he could pay for his efforts, a small bet against him yet in the first round is very tempting.
[4]Kuznetsov young talented, I'll keep an eye on him since I've never seen him playing.
[7]Giannessi, in the same quarter of Ungur, has a great chance to get at least a semifinal spot, while [8]Meffert is on upset alert yet in the second round, were he could face Naso who's in a good period, the two of them met just last week with Naso winning in straight sets.
Banja Luka:
I little trust that part of the world, and I little trust [2]Phau.
My favors go to [1] Kavcic.
[7]Haider-Maurer on early upset alert after two titles in a row last two weeks.
Petange:
This is the most interesting Challenger of the week, with better ranked players preparing the asian hard-court season.
[1]Muller left-handed big server and also local player is the clear favored.
Great talents in the same half [2]Zopp and [3]Berankis.
But if Zopp has some easy round up to the semifinal, I don't consider Zeballos[6] a great danger;
Berankis got the worst draw, de Scheeper at the first round, Hernych at the second, Serra, Mathieu or the young talented Hebert in the quarterfinal.
Tashkent:
Hard first round for [1]Nicolescu facing Knapp, Mestre's ITF winner last week. The post-injury Knapp doesn't give her best on hardcourt and rarely plays on it though.
[6]Jovanovski as my dark horse here.
Quebec City:
Interesting tournament also this one, played on indoor carpet, including n.14 WTA Cibulkova as #1
and Wickmayer as #2, and also unseeded players of high level.
Many good first round as as also #1 and 2 had alredy lost from their opponent Flipkens and Riske rispectively.
[5]Oprandi on upset alert facing young Annika Beck, great results at Junior level.
On a very fast court ther could be a good result for Barthel[3], solid server, after a season below the expectations, Zahalavova-Strycova[6] in Barthel's quarter could have trouble to play her dropshots, and other spins.
Also expecting something from [7]Martic, avoiding a first round against Giorgi who withdrew, she'll now play a qualifier. Her quarter is the same of Cibulkova but if Petra plays as she can also Cibu's defense could suffer to hit back balls with not the same spin for two times in a row.
R Oprandi - Annika Beck: Beck 4 units @2.37 +5.48
Beck can hit the ball very hard and also serve fast, indoor she could do very well.
No wonder she's already 16/3 indoor this season and has recorded more matches than Oprandi on this surface.
Nielsen - Eysseric: Eysseric 1 unit @2.25 -1
Small bet as I do't know them, but Nielsen usually plays only in doubles and in effect they've got similar ranking thuogh Eysseric is much younger.
de Schepper - Berankis: de Schepper 1 unit @2.75 -1
Small bet because Kenny's a good server but Berankis is raising his level recently.
+3.48
Impressive stuff for Beck. 6-1 7-6(11) the score. For two times she went to serve for the match (on the 5-4, and 6-5) than had 6 match points before the good one in the tie-break, also Oprandi dropped a set point.
Beck looks solid on both side, better on the forehand as she also turn around the ball instead of hitting the backhand. She hammers from the baseline but lacks of winning strokes, so she has to make her opponents run from side or push her far back the baseline. A bit insecure when she's at the net, her wrist is not so still and soft to play volleys or dropshot, similar to Sharapova.
Easy one fore Berankis, 6-4 6-2; while Eysseric went a set up but Nielsen came back and won, 3-6 6-4 6-1 .
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